9/20/22 Presque Isle Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

"Life always offers you a second chance. It's called tomorrow." - Dylan Thomas

Yes, I know.  Yesterday (Monday) was the big day for the Presque Isle Downs meet, as the card featured several Stakes, chief among them the Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters.  By the way, congrats to Artie's Princess, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr and ridden by Jose Ortiz, who won that contest by a length and a half at Final Odds of 3.10.

So, having acknowledged that Monday was the big event day, why play Tuesday?  To be honest, I would have preferred to play on the big day; but real life (in the form of rescheduled appointments as well as other obligations) had other plans.  Having missed the big day, I didn't want to wait until the weekend to analyze a multi-race play.  Besides, whether it's Monday, Tuesday, or the weekend, the money is just as green.  And whatever the day, the goal remains the same: collect at a profit while contributing as small an amount as possible to the pool.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Presque Isle Downs.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Aztec Princess (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 2 Girl Afraid (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Chica Chula (ML 20-1)

# 3 Warrior's Ransom (ML 3-1)

# 4 Elsa's Rocket (ML 8-1)
# 5 Keystone Warrior (ML 15-1)
# 6 By the Yard (ML 7-2)

# 7 Wings of a Song (ML 12-1)

# 9 Honey Hauler (ML 6-1)

These are juveniles, though all are experienced at competition, with the exception of By the Yard.  Aztec Princess missed graduation by just a nose last time out at today's distance.  Girl Afraid did all the heavy lifting on the front end last time out before fading to fourth.  As that was Girl Afraid's first try at a route distance, it's fair to presume that Girl Afraid will improve off that effort.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 6 - OC 62.5k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Shammah (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 6 I Once Stood Alone (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Legend of Charlie (ML 5-1)

# 2 Camino de Santiago (ML 2-1)

# 4 Dontinvademyspace (ML 6-1)

# 5 Uncle Jock (ML 8-1)

# 7 Brumba Waffle Toes (ML 10-1)

As with Race 6, these combatants are also juveniles, except males rather than females.  Also note that all are PA bred, with the exception of Camino de Santiago and Shammah, both of whom are trained by Tim Hamm.  Further note that the two Hamm trainees are the only two runners that are not in for the $62.5k tag; this despite the fact that all entrants have seen the inside of the winner's circle just once in their respective careers.

Camino de Santiago and Shammah, as mentioned above, are the two runners in this field trained by Tim Hamm.  Including both on the main ticket would go a long way towards insuring that I have the winner in this leg; but it would also go a long way towards ensuring that the main ticket would hold little value.  Therefore I have decided to place just one of the two on my main ticket.

A key factor in my decision as to which of the Hamm pair to use was that I followed Jockey Pablo Morales.  Morales is the leading rider at Presque Isle Downs for the current meet.  In addition, Morales has ridden both Camino de Santiago and Shammah in all their career races (three for Camino de Santiago, two for Shammah).  It's fair to presume that Morales was given his choice as to which of Trainer Hamm's chargers he could ride here; and while jockeys are just as fallible at picking winners as the rest of us, I'm going to trust Morales' opinion and go with Shammah over Camino de Santiago.

But not as a single.  I find I Once Stood Alone intriguing here.  I Once Stood Alone's current form is much improved from that which he displayed over this main track back in the Spring.  Now, that improvement could be because of the change of surface; but I'm going to gamble that I Once Stood Alone will be able to bring his dirt form with him upon his return to PID.  So it'll be two deep for me in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Tudox Rue Majestic (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Ady's Munny (ML 6-1)

# 7 Sachmo (ML 4-1)

C's

# 4 Youmustbea Weasley (ML 5-2)
# 5 Skydiving (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bishi (ML 15-1)

# 8 Shoot Your Cuffs (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 3 Fightin Phil (ML 10-1)

Tudox Rue Majestic, a big margin victor last time out, is two-for-seven lifetime over this main track, and looks well poised to take on the boys here.  Ady's Munny graduated against open company last time out; Trainer Brandon Kulp tends to do well when placing his last out winners.

Sachmo was a winner at a nice price over the Penn National turf course last time out.  If Sachmo can bring his turf form to the synthetic then he will be tough to beat here.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - Clm $5k B - Eight and a Third Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Holy Truth (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Believeinholidays (ML 4-1)

# 3 On Base (ML 5-2)

# 5 C the King (ML 8-1)

# 9 Tempus (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Castle King (ML 12-1)

# 4 Jingle Bells (ML 8-1)

# 6 Lebasi (ML 15-1)

# 7 Farat (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 10 Marsac (ML 15-1)

This contest is restricted to runners who have either:

1) Not won two races since March 20, 2022; OR

2) Which have not won three races since 2021-2022; OR

3) Which have never won four races.

Holy Truth has finished in the Exacta at this class level in each of his last two races.  In a field that doesn't boast a lot of early speed, Believeinholidays looks to be quickest, and Believeinholidays could be the one that they'll have to run down if they want to win.

On Base was a daylight winner over this track last time out after finally receiving some much needed class relief.  C the King took the Place at this class level last time out.  Tempus could move up with the drop down the class ladder.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 1 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 3,6 with 1,2,7 with 2,3,5,8,9 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,7,9 with 3 with 1 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,2,4,5,7 with 1 with 8 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 4,5,6,8 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 1 with 1,4,6,7 $2.00

Total: $41.00

Post Time for Race  is 3:18 EDT / 12:18 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo