9/3/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“When everything seems to be against you, remember that an airplane takes-off against the wind, not with it.” - Henry Ford

It's a Holiday Weekend in the US and Canada; but hopefully all reading this are making a holiday of today.  Saturday is also a celebratory day in Southern California horse racing, as Del Mar hosts its premier event of its Summer Meet, the Pacific Classic.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as well as a couple of other Graded Stakes, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Todo Fino (Chi) (Morning Line 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Mr. Impossible (ML 8-1)

# 5 Redline (ML 7-2)

# 9 Exaulted (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Sunrise Journey (ML 6-1)

# 3 Finneus (ML 8-1)
# 4 Conundrum (ML 8-1)
# 6 Super Curioso (ML 30-1)
# 7 Joker Boy (ML 15-1)

# 10 Disc Jockey (ML 5-1)

For those who note such things, Sunrise Journey is the only entrant in this field that is eligible to be claimed for $40k.

Todo Fino (Chi) will be making his North American debut Saturday; Trainer Amador Sanchez tends to do well with such.  I like the way Todo Fino has been working in the AM, first at Gulfstream Park and then at Del Mar.  I especially like the gate work on 8/21.  If Todo Fino can bring that morning energy to the afternoon competition, then he stands an excellent chance of getting his picture taken when this contest is over.

Mr. Impossible returns to action after a thirteen month vacation.  The last time that Mr. Impossible competed, he took the Place at this class level over this main track.

Redline took the Place at this class level last time out.  Exaulted took the Show at this class level last time out.  Note that Exaulted will be going second off the layoff for the first time since February-March of 2021.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Cabo Spirit (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Slow Down Andy (ML 8-1)

# 3 War At Sea (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Spycatcher (ML 30-1)

# 5 Dandy Warhol (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 St Anthony (ML 30-1)

# 7 Mackinnon (ML 3-1)
# 8 Barsabas (ML 20-1)

# 9 Balnikhov (Ire) (ML 5-2)

Cabo Spirit, winner of the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course last time out, is the only runner in this field with a Graded Stakes victory on the grass.  Slow Down Andy, a two time Graded Stakes winner on dirt, will be making his turf debut here.  If Slow Down Andy can carry his speed from the main track over to the turf course, then Slow Down Andy may be getting his picture taken before the late chargers can shift into gear.

War At Sea got under the wire ahead of Cabo Spirit back in June on the Santa Anita turf course.  Morning Line Favorite Balnikhov (Ire) seems to struggle when competing beyond eight furlongs.  For that reason I'll be using Balnikhov as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Flightline (ML 1-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Extra Hope (ML 30-1)

# 2 Country Grammer (ML 4-1)
# 3 Royal Ship (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Express Train (ML 12-1)

# 6 Stilleto Boy (ML 20-1)

One of the wisest adages in horse racing is a warning to punters to not accept odds that are too short on a horse trying something for the first time.  Saturday Flightline will be competing around two turns for the first time in his career, at a distance at which he has never before battled.  In addition, Saturday may mark the first time that Flightline will need to bide his time behind the pace, patiently waiting for the proper time to pass the early speedsters.  So, per the adage, I will not accept odds too short on Flightline.

So what odds would be too short on Flightline in Saturday's Pacific Classic?  In my humble opinion, I would say 1-50.

Yeah, I think Flightline is that good.  Granted, it's still a horse race; so anything can happen.  But I see nothing to be gained by trying to beat Flightline in Saturday's contest.  So for me it's Flightline solo on the big ticket in this leg, with all other entrants to be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2) - Eleven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Master Piece (Chi) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Gold Phoenix (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 10 Masteroffoxhounds (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Dicey Mo Chara (GB) (ML 15-1)

# 3 Gregdar (ML 5-1)

# 4 Red King (ML 8-1)

# 5 Tango Tango Tango (ML 20-1)

# 6 Tizamagician (ML 4-1)

# 7 Order and Law (ML 30-1)
# 8 Tesoro (ML 20-1)

# 11 Heywoods Beach (ML 8-1)

Master Piece (Chi) won the Grade 2 Eddie Read last time out over this turf course by open lengths at a very nice price.  Master Piece also took the Place in the 2021 running of this event.

After winning his debut at a nice price, Gold Phoenix (Ire) has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in half of his North American races.  Perhaps if Gold Phoenix is a price Saturday then he'll run to his best ability.

Masteroffoxhounds ran out of gas in the stretch last time out in the Eddie Read.  However, I'm going to presume that Masteroffoxhounds needed that race off the layoff.  Masteroffoxhounds has won previously at Saturday's distance, and I see no solid reason why he can't do it again.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 1 with 5 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,8,9 with 1,2,3 with 5 with 2,9,10 $18.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,7,10 with 1 with 5 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,5,6,7,8,9 with 5 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 9 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 5 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,11 $4.00

Total: $31.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:40 EDT / 4:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo