"By failing, a lesson can be learned. One can learn to avoid the mistake that caused the failure." - Glen Mizrahi
With the mistakes of this past Sunday as motivation, I've taken another small step into the 21st Century. Specifically, I created an Excel spreadsheet to help me with my ticket construction. Not for handicapping; I alone take all the blame for that. But the spreadsheet should (hopefully) make sure that my tickets match my selections. So, now that I have this new toy, I have to try it out. So let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Crump (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Nathan Detroit (ML 12-1)
# 11 Shortlist (ML 8-1)+
C's
# 5 You Make Me Happy (ML 15-1)
# 8 Kunshan Bridge (ML 12-1)
# 9 Two Birds (ML 9-2)
Scratch #the Also Eligibles, # 13 Spectacular Gem (ML 12-1) and # 14 Quantum Leap (ML 15-1)
For those who note such things, the entrants in this field running with the $25k tag on their heads are Nathan Detroit; # 3 Viski Jones (ML 15-1); and Shortlist.
Crump has failed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six races; which is why I didn't single him in this leg on the main ticket. Perhaps I shouldn't have made a money burner like Crump my top selection; but the talent is clearly there, and perhaps being gelded will help Crump to focus on business.
Nathan Detroit was victorious the only other time that he competed over this main track; that seems like a good enough reason to use a 12-1 shot. Nathan Detroit is also getting some class relief here, as is Shortlist.
There looks to be a lot of early speed in this contest. Among the anticipated front runners, You Make Me Happy and Two Birds could prove quickest. Kunshan Bridge could get a nice pace pressing trip.
RACE 6 - MSW - (F) Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Ravella (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Anyquist (ML 5-1)+
# 13 Awesome Ally Vee (ML 30-1)
C's
# 1 Fiddle (ML 7-2)+
# 8 Spirit Dance (ML 15-1)+
# 11 Sweets Maker (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 5 Blessing the Flag (ML 6-1) and # 12 Viewers Discretion (ML 20-1)
I may have spread too much in this leg. But considering that there are a dozen runners in this field, and not one of them finished in the money last time out, suggests that chaos could be the story of this event.
Ravella didn't show much in her debut on the Keeneland dirt; but Ravella has been working well over the Turfway Park main track. Anyquist was ambitiously placed last time out, going up against the boys. Anyquist showed some quickness in that contest before throwing in the towel.
Awesome Ally Vee showed some improvement last time out with the front leg wraps removed; maybe she can build off that effort. Fiddle wanted no part of the dirt last time out. Spirit Dance could improve having to cover less real estate, while Sweets Maker might appreciate stretching out.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Miss T Too (ML 2-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 6 Ride the Plan (ML 10-1)
# 7 Altered Shot (ML 6-1)+
# 8 Thunder Love (GB) (ML 5-2)
# 10 Varton (ML 10-1)
# 11 Off We Go (ML 20-1)+
# 12 Tiltingatwindmills (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Current Climate (ML 20-1) and # 14 Discreet Kitty (ML 20-1)
For those who wish to know, the only runner in this field in for the $40k tag is Tiltingatwindmills.
I thought long and hard about moving either or both of Altered Shot and Off We Go onto the main ticket; but I just don't think the added cost is justified. I might have felt differently were I still using previous method of constructing tickets; but I think having the flexibility of the C+ designation works to my advantage here. Anyway, we'll see.
I'm also using an above average number of C Selections. This is the class level where runners are all can win with their best effort; indeed, all of these have found their way to the winner's circle against quality competition at least one other time in their respective careers.
RACE 8 - (F) Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 12 Dear Beau (Ire) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Honey Comb (ML 9-2)
# 10 Seize the Marquet (ML 8-1)+
C's
# 7 Girls House (ML 15-1)
# 11 Time for Cupid (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 5 Burnt Match (ML 15-1) as well as the Also Eligibles; # 13 Miss Brightside (ML 6-1) and # 14 Flat Out Fay (ML 20-1)
Dear Beau (Ire) has been working her way down the class ladder; this could be the right place for her. Honey Comb has hit the board in prior tries against more expensive stock. Honey Comb also had a nice work over this main track earlier this month.
Seize the Marquet didn't show much in her debut last time out; but the class drop coupled with the change in surface could make Marquet a solid contender here.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, combined with some recent alterations, I get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 3 with 12 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7,11 with 3,9,13 with 3 with 2,10,12 $13.50
All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries
$0.50 P4: 7,11 with 1,3,8,9 with 3,7,11 with 10,12 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,8,9 with 9 with 3 with 12 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 3 with 12 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 6,8,10,12 with 12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 3 with 7,11 $1.00
Total: $44.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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