Merry Christmas Eve, everyone! Hopefully all that reading this are warm and dry, safe and sound. And, really, that's about all I have for an introduction. So let's just get to it, as I turn my attention to the Sunshine State and take a run at The Late Pick Four at Tampa Bay Downs.
RACE 5 - OClm 12500 - Eight and Two Elevenths Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Greyzer (Morning Line 5-1)
B’s
# 2 Candy Cove (ML 10-1)
# 9 Pemaquid Pete (ML 15-1)
# 10 Something Natural (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Hard Lighting (ML 6-1)
# 6 Roan Mountain (ML 9-2)
# 7 Carmenootz (ML 12-1)
The Starter Allowance piece of this contest's conditions is that, either this year or last, the entrant must have started for a claiming price of $8k or less. For those who note such things, the runners in this field who are in for the $12.5 claiming price are Hard Lighting, Roan Mountain, and Carmenootz.
Obviously the line maker at Tampa Bay Downs considered this to be a wide open affair, as the Morning Line Favorite in this ten horse field is listed as 9-2. So those with the willingness and bankroll to spread wider than I have in this opening leg should do so without hesitancy, as there are many in this field who can be considered serious contenders.
On the other hand, if Greyzer, who was victorious in his only prior try over this main track, is ready to roll off the freshening, then this really won't be much of a contest at all; as Greyzer at his best should romp over this field. So those are the opposing ways of looking at this event; and, well, I sorta copped out and chose a middle ground.
RACE 6 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 10 Saffron Moon (ML 6-5)
B's
# 7 Sweet Duchess (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Andor (Fr) (ML 9-2)
# 6 Byrdie Howe (ML 6-1)
# 14 Bazzarina (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Summer At the Spa (ML 15-1); # 3 Feets of Feather (ML 15-1); # 9 Memphis Showboat (ML 10-1); # 11 Beauty Quist (ML 6-1); # 12 Standoff (ML 5-1); and # 13 Gabby Squared.
And so we go from a heavily contested contest to a field which contains a potentially legitimate single. Saffron Moon, trained by Chad Brown, won by the length of the stretch last time out in her first try on the grass. That was back in April at Kenneland. Saffron Moon has not competed since that victory; but, as those conditioned by Chad Brown tend to do well first off the layoff, that extended vacation should not disadvantage Saffron Moon.
So why didn't I single Saffron Moon on the main ticket? Nothing against Saffron Moon, but I really like Sweet Duchess with the class drop. I still consider Saffron Moon the better selection; and I fully support those of the opinion that Saffron Moon should be singled. But after long consideration, I believe that Sweet Duchess has a sufficient enough possibility of pulling off the upset that doubling the cost of the main ticket is justified.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Silver Style (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Falk (ML 8-1)+
C's
# 5 Bank Frenzy (ML 5-2)+
# 6 All Our Munny (ML 8-1)
# 7 Richiesonaroll (ML 9-2)
# 8 Fire Baron (ML 10-1)
# 9 Three Fold (ML 10-1)+
Silver Style has finished in the Trifecta in each of his four career starts. Is that a positive or a negative? In this case, I see that as a positive, primarily because in all but one of those starts Silver Style was not the Post Time Favorite. Since he wasn't the public's top choice, it's reasonable to conclude that Silver Style didn't settle for a minor award, bur rather was defeated by a better runner. Today I expect Silver Style to be the better runner.
Falk has shown good early speed in his races on the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs; generally, speed on the synthetic tends to carry over to real dirt tracks. If it does for Falk today, then Falk may be crossing under the wire before many of these hit their best stride.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 8 Justintimeforwine (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Rock the Stars (ML 7-2)
# 3 Mr. Kringle (ML 3-1)+
# 3 Mr. Kringle (ML 3-1)+
# 5 Verrazanointhesky (ML 20-1)
# 9 Willow Wood (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Great Britain (ML 12-1)
# 4 Pirate Parade (ML 8-1)
# 6 Anvil (ML 20-1)
# 6 Anvil (ML 20-1)
# 7 Swing Low (ML 6-1)+
Scratch # 10 Ronstadt (ML 10-1) and # 11 Call Curt (ML 4-1)
Another wide open affair; or, at least, that's what I'm expecting it to be. Use as many as you like and can afford. The only comment that I'll make on this contest is that, on any other day, Mr. Kringle would rank much lower on my tickets, as Mr. Kringle has proven on many occasions that he prefers to settle for minor awards rather than having his picture taken. But there is no way, just no way, that I'm going to fade Mr. Kringle on Xmas Eve.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, combined with some recent alterations, I get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 5 with 10 with 4 with 8 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5,9,10 with 7,10 with 3,4 with 2,3,5,8,9 $40.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries
$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 3,4,5,9 with 3,7,8 $6.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 10 with 4 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,6,14 with 4 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 6,7,8 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 4 with 1,4,6 $1.50
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 2:29 EST / 11:29 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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