12/4/22 Del Mar Rainbow Pick Six - Preview

“When opportunity presents itself, don’t be afraid to go after it.” - Eddie Kennison

Sunday is closing day for Del Mar's I Hope You Brought a Jacket Because This Ain't The Summer Meet; so everything must go.  That includes the twenty cent jackpot Rainbow Pick Six; which, after the completion of Saturday's card, has a carryover of $513,150.  While the jackpot payout is the key attraction, the Sunday card in and of itself is worthy of attention, containing as it does a pair of Graded Stakes.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $32k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Tenacious Lady (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Cherry Chaos (ML 8-1)+

# 3 Prestigious (ML 6-1)

# 12 Blackened (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Nobe (ML 6-1)

# 6 Forest Acclamation (ML 12-1)

# 7 General Welfare (ML 8-1)

# 8 Short Journey (ML 12-1)

# 13 Sweet Hello (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 4 Bruins Mastery (No Line); # 5 Hollywood Rumor (ML 15-1); and # 11 Miss Kaline (ML 8-1) EDIT - # 10 Lucky Vegas (ML 20-1) is also scratched

Tenacious Lady strikes me as a clear top choice; but I have enough question marks regarding Tenacious Lady to keep me from making her a single in this leg.  Cherry Chaos, dropping in for a tag for the first time, looks like a logical contender.  Prestigious and Blackened are first time starters; and for those with larger bankrolls wishing to add more runners to this leg, I would suggest that they give a good, long look to the other debut runners in this contest.  And since no one likes being knocked out in the opening leg, for this contest I've reverted to using all runners not on the big ticket as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 5 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 First Peace (ML 5-1)

B's

# 2 Ransomware (ML 6-1) +

C's

# 1 Kolomio (ML 20-1)
# 4 Ah Jeez (ML 3-1)
# 5 Game Time (ML 6-1)
# 6 Ze'bul (ML 5-1)
# 7 Speed Boat Beach (ML 5-2)
# 8 Fleet Feet (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 9 Lloyds Logic (ML 20-1)

This the first of two Graded Stakes on the Sunday card; and note that both will be run over the turf course at a distance of one mile.  For this contest, juveniles will be trying to navigate two turns on the turf.  Six of the eight runners have one or fewer Wins; so it often goes in Graded Stakes for two year olds, even in December.

Personally, I think the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes belongs to one of the one Win entrants.  I'm skeptical of the Morning Line Favorite, Speed Boat Beach, being able to keep his speed going for all eight furlongs on the turf.  Still, since these are juveniles on the grass, Speed Boat Beach and all other entrants not on the main ticket, will be used as backup "C" Selections.  Oh, and note the + next to Ransomware (and Cherry Chaos in the opening leg).  I've added a B+ to the Selection process, as a (I hope) fine tuning element to my ticket construction.  For my play, a B+ will be included with the A's as a single ticket, but will not be used with the C's; at least for a few weeks, until I get a true feel for how it's working out.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Resilient (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Square Cat (ML 3-1)

# 7 Brace for Impact (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 1 I Know Cash Flow (ML 4-1)

# 3 Thirsty Always (ML 12-1)

# 4 Single Me Out (ML 5-1)

# 5 Holiday Arousal (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 6 Mr. T's Thirsty (ML 12-1)

For those who take note of such things, Thirsty Always and Single Me Out are the only two runners in this field that will be competing with the $20k price tag on their head.

Were this a Pick 4 rather than a Pick 6, I would remove either Resilient or Square Cat off the big ticket.  However, I believe that with the additional two legs that a Pick 6 provides, that I can catch a separator in another race and just get through this one (hopefully); thus justifying the added cost (and the lessened value) to the main ticket.

RACE 7 - The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Regal Glory (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Bipartisanship (GB) (ML 10-1)

# 5 Hamwood Flier (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 8 Pizza Bianca (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 4 Gold for Kitten (ML 20-1) and # 7 Wakanaka (Ire) (ML 5-1)

Not much that I can do with this one.  Regal Glory looks to be very much the best here.  By way of disclaimer, I should mention that I also thought that Regal Glory looked to be very much the best last time out in the Breeders' Cup Mile; yet, somehow, nine other runners managed to get under the wire before Regal Glory in that event.

Anyway, while this contest drew quite well, Regal Glory does appear to be a standout; and I see no logical reason to double (or treble) the cost of my main ticket by adding runners in this leg.

RACE 8 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Petruchio (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 4 Bright Leaf (ML 5-2)+

# 7 Street Art (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 5 Oncoming (ML 6-1)

# 8 Papale (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 3 Candy for Carmel (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have won fewer than two races in their career; no exceptions.  For some reason, that information is often not included in the running lines of the Past Performances.

Bright Leaf looks good, but is by no means a standout.  Conversely, Papale has done reasonably well at this level, but Papale just doesn't appear to be fast enough for this bunch.  So Bright Leaf is a B+, Papale is a C, and fingers are solidly crossed.

RACE 9 - OC 80k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Ready Soul (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 Count of Amazonia (ML 6-1)

# 5 Earls Rock (Ire) (ML 3-1)+

# 7 Crew Dragon (ML 30-1)

# 10 Lincoln Hawk (Ire) (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 3 Flashiest (ML 12-1)

# 4 Mecklenburg (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 8 Hudson Ridge (ML 6-1)

# 9 Zoffarelli (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 2 Kanderel (ML 8-1)

Mecklenburg (Ire) and Ready Soul are the two in this field that are up for sale.  Ready Soul strikes me as one to use in the Win pool; especially if this is going to be your "get out" race for the weekend.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,9 with 2,3 with 7,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 with 5,6,10 $14.40

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,3,9,12 with 2,3 with 2,7,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 with 1,5,6,7,10 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 2,6,7,8,13 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $1.00

$0.20 P6: 9 with 1,4,5,6,7,8 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 1,3,4,5 with 6 with 2 with 6 $0.80

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 1,5,8 with 2 with 6 $0.60

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 5,8 with 6 $0.40

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 3,4,8,9 $0.80

Total: $93.20

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:00 EST / 2:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo