"The harder you want to control something the more it gets out of your control. Stay within yourself and play your game." - Clayton Kershaw
Sticking with the plan to chase The Late Pick Five only on days where the pool is being fed with a carryover, Saturday's play will be limited to the Final Four contests on the card. Featured among that quartet is the $125k Valdale, a Listed Stake for three year old fillies. I'll be taking a look at the race below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) The Valdale $125k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Strokes (Ire) (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 11 T Max (ML 9-2)+
C's
# 3 Liliesformillie (ML 5-1)
# 4 Jill Jitterbug (ML 15-1)
# 5 B G Warrior (ML 20-1)
# 5 B G Warrior (ML 20-1)
# 8 Always at Ease (ML 15-1)
# 9 Murky (ML 5-2)+
Scratch # 1 Sally's Sassy (ML 10-1) and # 2 Baytown Lovely (ML 30-1)
As I was working through this sequence, I had to frequently remind myself that I was dropping from The Late Pick Five into The Late Pick Four. Generally speaking, regarding multi-race wagers, the more races (legs) in the sequence, the wider I can spread while still making plays that have value. At the extremes, this means that I can use many more runners when playing a Pick Six than I ever would in a Daily Double wager. The reasoning is that the anticipated payout increases as the number of races in the sequence increases.
Going from the general to the specific, among the field in Saturday's Valdale Stakes is Murky, the Wesley Ward trainee and Morning Line Favorite. In my opinion, if I was making Murky my top pick, then she really should be a main ticket single. Since Murky isn't my top pick in this leg, then I see little to be gained by including Murky on my main ticket. The reasoning being that, because she will be on the overwhelming majority of the Late Pick Four tickets played, using Murky as either a "B" or "B+" Selection adds more to the cost of my main ticket than she adds to the probability that I will cash at a profit.
Now, I feel that it's important for me to mention here that if I was confident of getting a price horse home in one of the other three legs, then I would definitely want to have Murky (as well as every other legitimate contender in this leg) on my main ticket. In that case the price horse in the other leg is providing enough value to guarantee a price that would offset the cost of putting all legitimate contenders on the main ticket. In addition, to point out the obvious, it does my bankroll little good to catch a price in one leg of the sequence only to whiff on another leg because I didn't cover a short priced winner.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Retained (ML 8-5)
B's
# 7 Gamer (ML 8-1)
# 8 Kansas Comet (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Braille (ML 6-1)
# 2 The Thunderer (ML 5-1)
# 3 Summer Country (ML 20-1)
# 5 Brokenhearted (ML 8-1)
# 5 Brokenhearted (ML 8-1)
# 6 American Triumph (ML 8-1)+
# 9 Go Bali Go (ML 12-1)+
Retained has failed as the Post Time Favorite four times in his six race career; obviously not a good line for him to have on his resume. Perhaps getting Lasix for the first time will make the difference for Retained today.
I have little doubt that Retained is going to be on the overwhelming number of Late Pick Four tickets punched today. Normally that would mean that the ideal strategy for Retained is single or toss. However, because I'm laying the anticipated Favorite in the opening leg, I can maintain value while still adding two "B" Selections in this leg. The positive is that, should Retained once again fail to win a race where he was clearly the most talented runner in the field, I'll still have a shot at advancing with my main ticket. The negative is that, should Retained finally break through and win as he should, then I will have wasted a significant amount of money adding the other two runners in this race, Pros and cons, just as it is with most everything else in life.
RACE 7 - OC 50k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Wadsworth (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Miranda Rights (ML 4-1)+
# 6 First Strike (ML 8-1)
# 12 Scoobie Quando (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Clear the Air (ML 6-1)
# 5 Mendel's Secret (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Eye Witness (ML 7-2)
These are three year olds, which is why the claiming price is $50k, instead of the $25k price typically used at Turfway for first level Optional Claimers. However, that point is moot, as none in this field are eligible to be claimed.
With the scratch of Eye Witness, Wadsworth inherits the Morning Line Favorite position. However, as is typical with races at this class level for newly minted three year olds, it may prove easier to pick the winner than to handicap how the public will wager. I think I've got this one right, at least as far as coverage, by going four deep; but a wider spread in this leg certainly is worthy of consideration.
RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Seven and Seven (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 5 Maqamat (ML 4-1)
# 7 Father Patrick (ML 6-1)+
C's
# 3 Drop Anchor (ML 6-1)
# 6 Ral Copperheadroad (ML 5-1)
# 6 Ral Copperheadroad (ML 5-1)
# 13 Vasilevskiy (Ire) (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 9 Over Calendared (ML 5-1) and # 12 Cheekers (ML 8-1)
Having an "A" Selection that's 10-1 on the Morning Line certainly looks impressive; but it's decidedly less impressive in light of the fact that the Morning Line Favorite (Maqamat) has a ML of 4-1. For those who enjoy race shape projections, I'm expecting Seven and Seven to lead the field, possibly until well after the field has passed the Finish Line. It looks on paper like Maqamat will get first run at Seven and Seven, perhaps earlier than usual if no one else challenges Seven and Seven in the opening phase of the contest. Father Patrick will probably see most, if not all, of his opponents running in front of him through most of the race, as Father Patrick tends to do his best running late.
Alright; here's the Reader's Digest version of the above selections, condensed into a single chart:
And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I created based upon the above selections:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,11 with 4 with 2,8 with 2,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,11 with 4,7,8 with 2,6,8,12 with 2,5,7 $36.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 2,8 with 2,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,11 with 6,9 with 2,8 with 2,7 $8.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,8 with 4 with 8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,5 with 8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 4,5 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 3,6,13 $1.50
Total: $61.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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