2/1/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

“I’m not stubborn.  My way is just better.” - Maya Banks

We can kiss the first month of 2023 goodbye, as January has gone by the boards and February breaks from the gate.  For now I've decided to stick with the challenge of catching 100% of the sequence of five; a decision made easier by knowing that a consolation payout will be given for lassoing only 80% of the string.  So with that let's get to it; as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 4 - Alw 5000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Texas Hedge ((Morning Line 20-1)

B’s

# 2 Not So Easy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sun Daddy (ML 9-2)

# 11 Can't Hide From Me (ML 7-2)

C's

# 4 Wind Twist (ML 15-1)

# 5 Duel Fuel (ML 20-1)

# 7 He Takes Charge (ML 15-1)+

# 10 English Challenge (ML 4-1)+

# 12 C F W Wicked Red (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 1 Hashtag Winner (ML 6-1); # 6 T J Munnings (ML 30-1); # 9 Golden Text (ML 6-1); and # 13 Delft (ML 30-1)

This being Kentucky rather than California, this event is a standard Starter Allowance with no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  The only requirement for this contest is that the runner must be four years old or upward, and must have started for a claiming price of $5k or less sometime over the past twenty-four months.

This was a tough one for me to sort out.  With either a larger bankroll, or a certifiable single in one of the other legs, either or both of He Takes Charge and English Challenge would be on my main ticket.  One key factor that made this leg more difficult for me was the scratch of Hashtag Winner, as I was looking forward to putting her at the top of my Selections for this leg, and then very much enjoying how many would discount her chances because she would be a female taking on the males.

Texas Hedge is at the top of my Selections as much for his price as for his ability.  I might as well shoot for high odds if I truly think this contest is ultra-competitive.  Still, I wouldn't get too excited about that Morning Line, as it was made prior to today's scratches.  But it certainly would be a nice one to pocket.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Miss J D (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 Mischievous Doll (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Rolo Bolo (ML 10-1)

# 5 Delovely (ML 12-1)

# 8 Aunt Becca (ML 8-1)+
# 10 Jenny Lind (ML 3-1)+
# 13 She's On the Rocks (ML 12-1)+

Scratch # 12 Liam's Gift (ML 20-1) and # 14 Shemademeblush (ML 4-1)

Approximately half of the runners in this field are first time starters.  Well, nobody said this would be easy.  Besides, if I was playing The Late Pick Four I would still have to sort out this lot.

The borderline horse in this field for me was Jenny Lind.  On form, Jenny Lind certainly belongs on the main ticket.  But Jenny Lind is trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, North America's all-time leader in training wins, with seemingly none of those wins achieved at Turfway Park; at least, not in recent history.  I have no idea why Asmussen's runners become camera shy when they compete at Turfway Park.  But it is what it is, and until it turns around I have no intentions, except under the most extreme of circumstances, of including an Asmussen runner on my main ticket.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Jubilee Bridge (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 5 Classic Coyne (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 3 Oma the Great (ML 6-1)

# 6 Texas Magic (ML 8-1)

# 7 Treaty of Paris (ML 10-1)

# 8 La Tourista (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Yarborough (ML 8-1) and # 2 Edgee Angel (ML 9-2)

For those who desperately need to know, with the scratch of Edgee Angel, none of the runners in this field are in for a tag.

La Tourista is moving up the class ladder after winning her previous two races at very nice prices.  If La Trourista continues to improve, then I may end up looking very foolish for not including her on my main ticket.  But in my opinion this is quite simply too big a class jump for La Tourista; and as a five year old mare with three dozen lifetime starts, I don't anticipate La Tourista at this stage of her career making the huge leap forward that she would need to in order to be a contender in this field.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $15k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Mrs. K (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 11 Smooth Like Ice (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 1 Only Time (ML 6-1)+

# 2 Protomagic (ML 15-1)

# 3 Puglia (ML 8-1)

# 5 Miss Matchmaker (ML 5-2)+

# 6 Tap the Line (ML 15-1)

# 7 Shadow Belle (ML 20-1)

# 8 Sis Boom Bob (ML 20-1)+

# 10 Gran Chemin (ML 12-1)
# 12 Jumakan Bourbon (ML 20-1)+

# 14 Chi Town Heat (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 4 You're Avoiding Me (ML 4-1) and # 13 Ju Suis Rapide (ML 8-1)

Mrs. K looks to be in good position to rebound (and likely improve upon) back to her effort two starts back, when she graduated by daylight over this track.  Smooth Like Ice graduated last time out; and while normally I'm hesitant to back such in their first try versus winners, Smooth Like Ice won last time by as many as she wanted at a very nice price.  Factor in that this field doesn't appear to have a true standout, and I think it's justified to list Smooth Like Ice near the top among my Selections.

With a larger bankroll, I might be tempted to elevate Miss Matchmaker onto the main ticket.  But Miss Matchmaker is almost certain to be over bet, despite having a similar status to Smooth Like Ice, excepting that Miss Matchmaker has already had her first race versus winners, where she finished off the board.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $7.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Morning Angel (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 2 Forgot Password (ML 4-1)

# 6 Dialed Inna (ML 9-2)

# 10 Total Discretion (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Easy Is Good (ML 20-1)
# 3 Wilmore (ML 20-1)

# 5 Jersey Gold (ML 50-1)

# 7 Youdevilyoucecilia (ML 20-1)

# 8 Beach Kitten (ML 15-1)
# 9 Gorilla Girl (ML 8-1)

# 11 Tiz Abby (ML 30-1)

# 13 Knelcock (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 12 Decree of Love (ML 5-2) and # 14 Grand Venus (ML 30-1)

I was disappointed with the scratch of Decree of Love, as I was hoping to fade her against this field; but, hey, maybe I would have been wrong.

The runner that I had the most difficulty slotting in this bunch was Total Discretion.  Seriously, I kept moving Total Discretion up and down in my rankings, until I decided that I'd rather needlessly increase the cost of my play by putting Total Discretion on my main ticket than suffer with all the second guessing that I would subject myself to were Total Discretion get the W.  Sometimes you have to go with the decision that you can live with over the decision that is objectively best.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 3 with 7 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 3 with 7 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 2,3,8,11 with 3,7 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 2,4,6,10 $64.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 7,10 with 7 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 4 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 8,10,13 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 4 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 4,5 with 1,5,8,12 with 4 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 4,5,12 with 7 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 3 with 1,5 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 3,6,7,8 with 9 with 4 $2.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 4 with 2,3,6,7,10,14 with 4 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 4 with 9 with 1,3,5,7,8,9,11,13 $4.00

Total: $94.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 7:25 EST / 4:25 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo