"We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience." - George Washington
There's a brutal winter storm covering a significant portion of the United States; so if you're in its path, please stay warm, and please stay safe. Fortunately, the storm has seemingly stayed away from Florence, KY, which thankfully allows us to enjoy a bit of a diversion, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Redhot Katie (Morning Line 12-1)
B’s
# 13 Dance the Day Away (ML 5-1)+
C's
# 1 Taperinea (ML 10-1)
# 5 Wherethemoneywent (ML 8-1)
# 7 Moonlight Rain (ML 3-1)+
Scratch # 4 No Nannette No (ML 7-2); # 11 Honey Bourbon (ML 10-1); and # 14 Hero of the Best (ML 20-1)
There're few things like having one of your "A" Selections scratch less than an hour before first post. to make you scramble. But that's where I'm at, as No Nannette No was an easy top pick for me in this leg.
With the scratch of No Nannette No, Redhot Katie inherits the top spot. Redhot Katie just won at this class level last time out (a Win which was subsequently reversed due to Redhot Katie having tested positive for something which she should not have had in her system). If Redhot Katie was, say, below 9-2, I probably would have used her as a backup Selection; but I just couldn't say no to 12-1; or, for that matter, even half those odds.
Dance the Day Away, trained by Jonathan Wong, draws in off the Also Eligible List. Wong's stable has been cold of late; but I see that as more of a fluke than a continuing trend.
As for the Morning Line Favorite, Moonlight Rain, I still see her as a play against, despite the scratch of my top pick. Moonlight Rain has just disappointed too many times as the Post Time Favorite of late for my tastes; especially at such a short price as she will be today. So if using Moonlight Rain as a backup Selection means that I don't collect tonight, than so be it.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Night Kiss (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Inside Girl (ML 20-1)
# 4 Elegance (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Lily's Home (ML 10-1)
# 3 Jubilant Joanie (ML 12-1)
# 5 Three Sport Coats (ML 6-1)
# 6 Queen Tapiture (ML 2-1)+
# 7 I'mherefortheparty (ML 8-1)+
# 8 Captive Star (ML 30-1)
# 11 Dont Needno Prince (ML 20-1)
# 11 Dont Needno Prince (ML 20-1)
# 13 Classic Farewell (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 10 Story Channel (ML 30-1); # 12 Snow Crane (ML 20-1); and # 14 Rapping Wish (ML 10-1)
I've moved the Morning Line Favorite, Queen Tapiture, down to backup status on my tickets. I'll be honest; this was a tough call for me. Queen Tapiture ran well enough in each of her last two races to have won, taking the Place in both. And that's bullet point on Queen Tapiture's resume that simultaneously speaks to why she could easily win today, and why she's a solid play against.
Queen Tapiture has had four previous races at this class level; three of which were at Turfway Park. Of those at Turfway Park, Queen Tapiture has taken the Place in all three. Looking at it as a war of attrition, Queen Tapiture could rule today, as those who have previously vanquished her are no longer on the battlefield. But at some point it must be presumed that Queen Tapiture simply does not want to cross under the wire first versus the other runners at this class level. I'm making that presumption today. We'll know after the race if I presumed correctly.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 11 Vaccine of Hope (ML 6-1)
B's
# 5 Quaria Comet (ML 7-2)
# 6 Maotal (ML 15-1)+
C's
# 2 Ride the Plan (ML 20-1)
# 3 Roc's Princess (ML 15-1)
# 4 Your So Sillea (ML 5-1)+
# 7 Save the Flag (ML 50-1)
# 8 Awesome Treat (ML 3-1)+
# 9 Intrigue (ML 9-2)+
# 10 Hermana (ML 15-1)
# 12 Promises to Dance (ML 8-1)+
Scratch # 1 Rookery (ML 30-1)
I'm going to draw a line through Vaccine of Hope's last outing, as I expect most handicappers will. Which means that I'll consider myself quite fortunate should the Wesley Ward Trained Vaccine of Hope leave the gate at 5-2. Still, at that price Vaccine of Hope in my opinion would still be a nice value.
Maotal will be a nice one to have is the cutback in distance allows he to return to the form that she showed two starts back. Quaria Comet could be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Quaria Comet could have company up front early from the Brad Cox trained Promises to Dance; but, and maybe I'm being stubborn, I think Promises to Dance should be competing around two turns.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Golden Runner (ML 8-1)
B's
# 11 Opening Act (ML 2-1)+
C's
# 1 Friction (ML 5-1)+
# 2 Varsity Blonde (ML 8-1)
# 3 Best Performer (ML 7-2)+
# 4 Rolo Bolo (ML 20-1)
# 5 Spring Lilacs (ML 12-1)+
# 12 Bamberooski (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Thestral (ML 6-1) and # 14 Time to Race (ML 8-1)
If you want to flip the positions of Golden Runner and Opening Act above you go right ahead. I promise that you won't hurt my feelings, because I've flip-flopped them at least a half dozen times over the past six hours. In fact, if I had another six hours to think it over, I'd probably flip-flop them again. But sooner or later the clock strikes midnight; and so it is here.
Alright; for those who dig charts, here are the above Selections in that format:
And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I created based upon the above selections:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 9 with 11 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,13 with 9 with 6,11 with 10,11 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 1,4,9 with 5,6,11 with 10,11 $18.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 6,11 with 10,11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 6,7 with 6,11 with 10,11 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 9 with 4,8,9,12 with 10,11 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 9 with 6,11 with 1,3,5 $6.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 9 with 11 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3,5,8,11,13 with 11 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 2,3,7,10 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 11 with 2,4,12 $1.50
Total: $58.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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