Taking a look at the final four races of the 2013 Breeders' Cup:
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Little Mike (ML 6-1)
# 7 The Fugue (ML 3-1)
# 8 Point of Entry (ML 4-1)
# 10 Big Blue Kitten (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
I have to presume that had Big Blue Kitten won the head bob in the Turf Classic Invitational his odds would be much lower today (and my bankroll would be much larger). I don't care how Little Mike runs today; all I know is that he's not costing me another Pick Four payout.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Private Zone (ML 3-1)
# 9 Secret Circle (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Justin Phillip (ML 4-1)
# 3 Gentlemen's Bet (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sum of the Parts (ML 12-1)
# 11 Trinniberg (ML 8-1)
Really like Justin Phillip against this field, but I suspect that his preferred running style will leave him compromised both by the way the track is playing and by drawing the rail. Trinniberg is winless since capturing this crown last year. Without Baffert as his trainer, I don't give Secret Circle a second look; with Baffert as his trainer, I think Secret Circle will be the one getting his picture taken when this one is over. Still, this is a very competitive race; really wish I could just hit the "ALL" button for this one. Actually, that may not be a bad idea; see below for a supplemental ticket.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Wise Dan (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 4 Obviously (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Olympic Glory (ML 4-1)
I thought long and hard about just going solo with Wise Dan here, especially as it would've allowed me to spread wider in Race 10. But when it comes to Johnny V at The Breeders' Cup...well, you just never know.
RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Fort Larned (ML 6-1)
# 9 Game On Dude (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Paynter (ML 12-1)
# 6 Mucho Macho Man (ML 5-1)
# 8 Palace Malice (ML 10-1)
# 10 Will Take Charge (ML 12-1)
The way the main track has been playing, you would think that it was all set for Game On Dude to win the Classic. But it looked that way last year too; and one stumble out of the gate later it was Fort Larned getting his picture taken to close out 2012 The Breeders' Cup. If Game On Dude decides not to fire again today this could be anyone's race. Palace Malice should do well coming off his performance in The Jockey Club Gold Cup. If they work on the track to deaded the speed and over do it, Will Take Charge is the best of the closers.
OK, lets put it all together.
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 1, 3, 5, 11
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 4, 5
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 2, 6, 8, 10
Cost: $16.00
And here's the supplemental ticket I spoke of; play it for fifty cents:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: ALL
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 9
Cost: $24.00
TOTAL COST: $88.00
Yeah, it's more than I prefer to spend on these plays; but this is The Breeders' Cup, after all. Besides, if Wise Dan and Game On Dude win the Late Double, we'll need either a price in Race 10 and/or multiple winning tickets in order to get a decent payout.
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:22 EDT / 3:22 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 2, 2013
11/2/13 Santa Anita Early Pick Four - Preview
Day Two of America's Day at the Races. But before I go any further, I just want to be sure that everyone is aware of The Million Dollar Finish. The goal of the contest is to pick the Top Ten finishers in order in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. I estimate that your odds of actually winning are slightly less than your odds of having a three way with Kate Upton and Scarlett Johansson six nights in a row. But it’s a million dollars; it’s free to register; so why not give it a shot?
RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (Morning Line 3-1)
# 7 Untapable (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Sweet Reason (ML 5-2)
# 10 She's a Tiger (ML 6-1)
Sweet Reason is going to be seriously compromised if the main track at Santa Anita plays Saturday as it did on Friday. But even on a track that plays fair I see no reason why Artemis Agrotera can't beat Sweet Reason again.
RACE 5 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dank (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tiz Flirtatious (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 6 Marketing Mix (ML 7-2)
# 7 Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-1)
The invading champ versus the local hero: Dank vs Tiz Flirtatious. Speaking as a fan, I'm really looking forward to this one. Marketing Mix is in my opinion just a step below those two but with Stevens on board she may get the best trip; while Laughing just might steal it all on the front end.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dance to Bristol (ML 5-1)
# 12 Sweet Lulu (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 6 Ismene (ML 20-1)
# 10 Great Hot (Brz) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Groupie Doll (ML 5-2)
What a difference a year makes; or does it? Groupie Doll is the Morning Line Favorite, but I think she can be beat (though I'm nowhere near brave enough to leave her off the ticket altogether). Dance to Bristol would probably be my single A on a track playing fair. Leaving Judy the Beauty off the tickets; I'm hoping today isn't the day that she gets her first win on real dirt. Really rolling the dice on this one.
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 12 Mizdirection (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Chips All In (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reneesgotzip (ML 5-1)
# 6 Boat Trip (ML 8-1)
She did it before and she can do it again. Mizdirection's form heading into today's event looks almost identical to her form going into this race last year. Reneesgotzip should improve off her performance last year; a Mizdirection / Reneesgotzip Exacta looks like a good play.
OK, putting it all together:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 4: 9, 10
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 6, 10, 11
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 3, 4, 6
Cost: $18.00
TOTAL COST: $48.00
And just for fun, here's a small $2 Pick Six Ticket you can use to get some cheap Saturday afternoon action:
RACE 7: 12
RACE 8: 6, 13
RACE 9: 4, 8
RACE 10: 7. 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 9
Cost: $16.00
Post Time for Race 4 is scheduled for 3:05 EDT / 12:05 PDT. Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (Morning Line 3-1)
# 7 Untapable (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Sweet Reason (ML 5-2)
# 10 She's a Tiger (ML 6-1)
Sweet Reason is going to be seriously compromised if the main track at Santa Anita plays Saturday as it did on Friday. But even on a track that plays fair I see no reason why Artemis Agrotera can't beat Sweet Reason again.
RACE 5 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dank (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tiz Flirtatious (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 6 Marketing Mix (ML 7-2)
# 7 Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-1)
The invading champ versus the local hero: Dank vs Tiz Flirtatious. Speaking as a fan, I'm really looking forward to this one. Marketing Mix is in my opinion just a step below those two but with Stevens on board she may get the best trip; while Laughing just might steal it all on the front end.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dance to Bristol (ML 5-1)
# 12 Sweet Lulu (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 6 Ismene (ML 20-1)
# 10 Great Hot (Brz) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Groupie Doll (ML 5-2)
What a difference a year makes; or does it? Groupie Doll is the Morning Line Favorite, but I think she can be beat (though I'm nowhere near brave enough to leave her off the ticket altogether). Dance to Bristol would probably be my single A on a track playing fair. Leaving Judy the Beauty off the tickets; I'm hoping today isn't the day that she gets her first win on real dirt. Really rolling the dice on this one.
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 12 Mizdirection (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Chips All In (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reneesgotzip (ML 5-1)
# 6 Boat Trip (ML 8-1)
She did it before and she can do it again. Mizdirection's form heading into today's event looks almost identical to her form going into this race last year. Reneesgotzip should improve off her performance last year; a Mizdirection / Reneesgotzip Exacta looks like a good play.
OK, putting it all together:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 4: 9, 10
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 6, 10, 11
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 3, 4, 6
Cost: $18.00
TOTAL COST: $48.00
And just for fun, here's a small $2 Pick Six Ticket you can use to get some cheap Saturday afternoon action:
RACE 7: 12
RACE 8: 6, 13
RACE 9: 4, 8
RACE 10: 7. 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 9
Cost: $16.00
Post Time for Race 4 is scheduled for 3:05 EDT / 12:05 PDT. Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, November 1, 2013
11/1/13 GG R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
We take a slight break from The Breeders' Cup to report on City Chapel, the longshot claim by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo that we've been following. City Chapel competed in Race 3 at Golden Gate Fields Friday, a $20k conditioned Claiming Event (NW2LX) run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the main synthetic track.
Breaking slowest of all in the field of seven, City Chapel (Final Odds 3.40) settled early, went four wide around the turn, and grabbed the Place, three and a half lengths behind the Winner, Bwana Be Gone (2.30). For his efforts City Chapel earned for his connections $3,600 in purse money; bringing his total winnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Trujillo to $49,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking slowest of all in the field of seven, City Chapel (Final Odds 3.40) settled early, went four wide around the turn, and grabbed the Place, three and a half lengths behind the Winner, Bwana Be Gone (2.30). For his efforts City Chapel earned for his connections $3,600 in purse money; bringing his total winnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Trujillo to $49,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/1/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
In a variation on a familiar theme, we today had not one, but two Pick Four tickets with three out of four winners.
The Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita on Breeders' Cup Friday began with Race 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. # 4 Outstrip (GB) (Final Odds 6.00), one of our "C" selections, crossed the wire first, a half length in front of another of our "C" selections, # 2 Giovanni Boldini (4.00); while our single "A" selection, # 5 Bobby's Kitten (1.30*) took the Show. Incidentally, after the race it was reported that Bobby's Kitten's owner Ken Ramsey, upset with his horse's failure to win, declared that Jockey Javier Castellano would never ride Bobby's Kitten again; offering further evidence that no one ever boos the horse.
Race 8 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile was won by # 12 Goldencents (3.80); and while we had Goldencents on our tickets, we had him as we had Outstrip in the prior race: as one of our "C" selections. So with that, our Pick Four play died, rendering moot victories by "A" selections # 8 Chriselliam (Ire) (6.90) in Race 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and # 5 Beholder (2.80) in Race 10 - The Breeders' Cup Distaff.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had on a single ticket the correct sequence of 4 / 12 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $403.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita on Breeders' Cup Friday began with Race 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. # 4 Outstrip (GB) (Final Odds 6.00), one of our "C" selections, crossed the wire first, a half length in front of another of our "C" selections, # 2 Giovanni Boldini (4.00); while our single "A" selection, # 5 Bobby's Kitten (1.30*) took the Show. Incidentally, after the race it was reported that Bobby's Kitten's owner Ken Ramsey, upset with his horse's failure to win, declared that Jockey Javier Castellano would never ride Bobby's Kitten again; offering further evidence that no one ever boos the horse.
Race 8 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile was won by # 12 Goldencents (3.80); and while we had Goldencents on our tickets, we had him as we had Outstrip in the prior race: as one of our "C" selections. So with that, our Pick Four play died, rendering moot victories by "A" selections # 8 Chriselliam (Ire) (6.90) in Race 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and # 5 Beholder (2.80) in Race 10 - The Breeders' Cup Distaff.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had on a single ticket the correct sequence of 4 / 12 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $403.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/1/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Day One of The Breeders' Cup - here at last! Here's the Late Pick Four play (with just some brief notes) that I'll be making today:
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Bobby’s Kitten (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Giovanni Boldini (ML 7-2)
# 4 Outstrip (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 13 Bashart (ML 6-1)
I’m leaning heavily on Bobby’s Kitten here, Lasix ban be damned. If he wins, I’m in great shape. If he loses, I still have a shot if one of the other logical contenders win. If a longshot upsets this field, then all my tickets become worthless.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Verrazano (ML 3-1)
# 11 Pants On Fire (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 4 Brujo de Olleros (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Broadway Empire (ML 12-1)
# 12 Goldencents (ML 4-1)
Verrazano seems to be the class of a very talented field, especially when one considers that this is a “catch distance” race for horses that have their problems handling the classic distances but don’t typically fare well in sprints. Pants On Fire seems to be in best form. Because those two are both starting from the far outside, I felt the need to spread a bit with some C’s. Had he not scratched # 1 Taptowne (ML 15-1) would have been among the C’s.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Chriselliam (ML 6-1)
# 14 My Conquestadory (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 1 Nesso (ML 20-1)
# 2 Al Thakhira (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Vorda (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Street Sailing (ML 15-1)
# 10 Clenor (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Ready to Act (ML 8-1)
Juvenile fillies; are there any horses on the lot more inconsistent? Oh, yes, there is: juvenile fillies being taken off Lasix. I think Chriselliam has the best form in the field, while My Conquestadory has the best upside. I took a stand against # 12 Testa Rossi (Fr) (ML 8-1) and # 13 Sky Painter (ML 15-1), the Exacta in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo, because I wasn’t impressed with that race; so if any of the four horses coming out of the Miss Grillo win this one, then my play is dead.
RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Royal Delta (ML 8-5)
# 5 Beholder (ML 5-2)
# 6 Princess of Sylmar (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 2 Authenticity (ML 8-1)
# 3 Close Hatches (ML 6-1)
There may not be much meat in this one, but what meat there is is all choice. If I should be fortunate enough to be alive to all four of the above when we get to this leg I’ll be sure to throw a deuce on # 1 Street Girl (ML 30-1) to Win, so that at worse I’ll break about even.
Putting it all together, if we play the all A’s ticket for a buck and the others for fifty cents, it should look something like this:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 2, 4, 13
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 4, 6, 12
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 11
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 2, 3
Cost: $4.00
TOTAL COST: $ 61.00
And because it's The Breeders' Cup, here's a Pick Six ticket for those of you looking for some cheap action. Play it with all the confidence that you would a Power Ball ticket:
RACE 5: 12
RACE 6: 8, 9
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $12.00
Post Time for Race 5 is scheduled for 4:02 EDT / 1:02 PDT. Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:25 EDT / 2:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Bobby’s Kitten (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Giovanni Boldini (ML 7-2)
# 4 Outstrip (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 13 Bashart (ML 6-1)
I’m leaning heavily on Bobby’s Kitten here, Lasix ban be damned. If he wins, I’m in great shape. If he loses, I still have a shot if one of the other logical contenders win. If a longshot upsets this field, then all my tickets become worthless.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Verrazano (ML 3-1)
# 11 Pants On Fire (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 4 Brujo de Olleros (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Broadway Empire (ML 12-1)
# 12 Goldencents (ML 4-1)
Verrazano seems to be the class of a very talented field, especially when one considers that this is a “catch distance” race for horses that have their problems handling the classic distances but don’t typically fare well in sprints. Pants On Fire seems to be in best form. Because those two are both starting from the far outside, I felt the need to spread a bit with some C’s. Had he not scratched # 1 Taptowne (ML 15-1) would have been among the C’s.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Chriselliam (ML 6-1)
# 14 My Conquestadory (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 1 Nesso (ML 20-1)
# 2 Al Thakhira (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Vorda (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Street Sailing (ML 15-1)
# 10 Clenor (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Ready to Act (ML 8-1)
Juvenile fillies; are there any horses on the lot more inconsistent? Oh, yes, there is: juvenile fillies being taken off Lasix. I think Chriselliam has the best form in the field, while My Conquestadory has the best upside. I took a stand against # 12 Testa Rossi (Fr) (ML 8-1) and # 13 Sky Painter (ML 15-1), the Exacta in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo, because I wasn’t impressed with that race; so if any of the four horses coming out of the Miss Grillo win this one, then my play is dead.
RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Royal Delta (ML 8-5)
# 5 Beholder (ML 5-2)
# 6 Princess of Sylmar (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 2 Authenticity (ML 8-1)
# 3 Close Hatches (ML 6-1)
There may not be much meat in this one, but what meat there is is all choice. If I should be fortunate enough to be alive to all four of the above when we get to this leg I’ll be sure to throw a deuce on # 1 Street Girl (ML 30-1) to Win, so that at worse I’ll break about even.
Putting it all together, if we play the all A’s ticket for a buck and the others for fifty cents, it should look something like this:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 2, 4, 13
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 4, 6, 12
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 11
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 2, 3
Cost: $4.00
TOTAL COST: $ 61.00
And because it's The Breeders' Cup, here's a Pick Six ticket for those of you looking for some cheap action. Play it with all the confidence that you would a Power Ball ticket:
RACE 5: 12
RACE 6: 8, 9
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $12.00
Post Time for Race 5 is scheduled for 4:02 EDT / 1:02 PDT. Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:25 EDT / 2:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2013 Breeders' Cup - How Will the Main Track Play?
My initial impression while viewing the races yesterday was that there was track bias favoring early speed in effect at Santa Anita. A closer look at Thursday's Charts seems to confirm that was the case.
Now keep in mind that, because the sample size is so small (since there are so few dirt races on a typical day) it’s impossible to state with one hundred percent certainty that there was in fact a track bias, either favoring or opposing early speed. After all, anything can happen in any given race. However, a close examination of Thursday’s results seems to suggest that there was a bias favoring early speed in effect, as every winner in the five races on the main dirt track was either in the lead or within a length of the lead at the half mile mark. No horse that was in the lead in the stretch in the five races on the dirt Thursday was passed before reaching the wire. Only one of those five horses was the Post Time Favorite; three of the five paid greater than eighteen dollars to Win. Such data would indicate that there was a track bias favoring early speed.
Looking at the Place horses in those five races likewise seems to confirm the bias in favor of early speed. In four of the five dirt races the Place horse was either on the lead or in second at the first quarter mark (i.e. the point of the race two furlongs past the starting gate). The one exception was Race 2; where, ironically, it was the Post Time Favorite (Frandontjudge) who was passed by not one but two horses in the stretch, eventually finishing fourth.
Phrasing the above data another way: in four of the five races on the main dirt track at Santa Anita Thursday the eventual Exacta was comprised of the horses who were first and second at the half mile mark of the race. In the one exception, the eventual Exacta was comprised of the horses who were first and third at the half mile mark.
So what does that mean for the Breeders’ Cup races on Friday? Possibly nothing. After all, while the trend is clear, the sample size is small. Also keep in mind that track officials watch the races too. They may decide to do some maintenance on the track in order to get it to play more fair.
There will be three races on the main dirt track Friday prior to the Breeders’ Cup events. Hopefully those will provide us with the answers we need as to how the track will play the rest of the day.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Now keep in mind that, because the sample size is so small (since there are so few dirt races on a typical day) it’s impossible to state with one hundred percent certainty that there was in fact a track bias, either favoring or opposing early speed. After all, anything can happen in any given race. However, a close examination of Thursday’s results seems to suggest that there was a bias favoring early speed in effect, as every winner in the five races on the main dirt track was either in the lead or within a length of the lead at the half mile mark. No horse that was in the lead in the stretch in the five races on the dirt Thursday was passed before reaching the wire. Only one of those five horses was the Post Time Favorite; three of the five paid greater than eighteen dollars to Win. Such data would indicate that there was a track bias favoring early speed.
Looking at the Place horses in those five races likewise seems to confirm the bias in favor of early speed. In four of the five dirt races the Place horse was either on the lead or in second at the first quarter mark (i.e. the point of the race two furlongs past the starting gate). The one exception was Race 2; where, ironically, it was the Post Time Favorite (Frandontjudge) who was passed by not one but two horses in the stretch, eventually finishing fourth.
Phrasing the above data another way: in four of the five races on the main dirt track at Santa Anita Thursday the eventual Exacta was comprised of the horses who were first and second at the half mile mark of the race. In the one exception, the eventual Exacta was comprised of the horses who were first and third at the half mile mark.
So what does that mean for the Breeders’ Cup races on Friday? Possibly nothing. After all, while the trend is clear, the sample size is small. Also keep in mind that track officials watch the races too. They may decide to do some maintenance on the track in order to get it to play more fair.
There will be three races on the main dirt track Friday prior to the Breeders’ Cup events. Hopefully those will provide us with the answers we need as to how the track will play the rest of the day.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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