Race 7 - # 9 Exemplar (Final Odds 6.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The City of Hope Mile - # 10 Vyjack (4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Westmont (1.30*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 10 Partyinthepaddock (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Including Vyjack on our big ticket as our single instead of # 8 Obviously (Ire) (1.00*) (who took the Show in The City of Hope Mile) is an idea only possible with the use of 20-20 hindsight; and including Vyjack with Obviously on the big ticket would have completely blown up the budget, or required gutting our selections in the other legs; which, again with 20-20 hindsight, may not have been that bad an idea. But realistically the fault in today's play was the failure to give more consideration to Westmont as an "A" Selection, at the very least alongside our other two "A" Selections in that leg, # 2 Iron Curtain (27.70) and # 11 Downside Up (4.70) (who took the Place and Show, respectively, behind Westmont). But we didn't, and for that reason today was a day for us to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 10 / 9 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $155.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 8, 2016
10/8/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
There're a trio of stakes on the Saturday card at Santa Anita; one of which, the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile, has made it into the final four events on the day. So we'll be looking at that contest below as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Exemplar (Morning Line 5-1)
# 10 Redneck Crazy (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 H R Express (ML 30-1)
# 3 Unbridled Rocket (ML 8-1)
# 5 Curly Road (ML 8-1)
# 6 Rideo (ML 7-2)
# 8 Weirdhaircut Seth (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 Boompa (ML 4-1)
# 4 My Son John (ML 20-1)
# 7 Etailer (ML 6-1)
Needless to say, I considered this race to be extremely contentious, as every runner is being used in some shape or form; so if you can do so and stay within your budget, you might want to give serious thought to just hitting the "ALL" button on your big ticket here.
Exemplar took the Show at this class level last time out. Redneck Crazy finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two races against more expensive.
H R Express has shown good early speed in each of his last two contests and could be rounding up to a new best effort. Unbridled Rocket took the Place against more expensive last time out. Curly Road and Weirdharicut Seth both drop in for the lowest price tag of their respective careers.
Rideo was over-matched against more expensive last time out and should improve with the class drop. The "C's" are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The City of Hope Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Obviously (Ire) (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Joshuas Glory (ML 50-1)
# 6 Enter the Code (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 4 Loud Stalker (ML 6-1)
Iron Curtain showed good early speed in his debut last time out with the apprentice rider on his back. Downside Up took the Place at this class level two and three starts back. Westmont finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.
Joshuas Glory had a hard work early this week at Los Alamitos, after not showing much last time out in his debut. Enter the Code finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.
RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Partyinthepaddock (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Diva La Mousse (ML 5-1)
# 6 Go Baby Run (ML 8-1)
# 7 Munny Spunt (ML 12-1)
# 8 Settle Down Eileen (ML 12-1)
# 9 Gio's Lady (ML 6-1)
# 11 Grand Prix (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Street Love (ML 6-1); # 13 Ciao Bella Rosa (ML 3-1); # 14 Laura's Babydoll (ML 10-1)
Partyinthepaddock showed good form in her debut on dirt last time out, and having Harlan's Holiday as a sire suggests that she'll handle the turf well. Diva La Mousse has shown good early speed in each of her two prior career starts, both on the main track.
Munny Spunt is a first time starter sired by Munnings, whose progeny tend to do well in their debuts. Settle Down Eileen and Grand Prix have both shown good early speed sprinting on the dirt, while Gio's Lady and Go Baby Run showed some early quickness last time out while routing on the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9,10 with 8 with 2,11 with 10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,5,6,8,9,10 with 8 with 2,9,11 with 4,6,7,8,9,10,11 $73.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,4,7 with 8 with 2,11 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9,10 with 4,10 with 2,11 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9,10 with 8 with 3,6 with 10 $2.00
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Exemplar (Morning Line 5-1)
# 10 Redneck Crazy (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 H R Express (ML 30-1)
# 3 Unbridled Rocket (ML 8-1)
# 5 Curly Road (ML 8-1)
# 6 Rideo (ML 7-2)
# 8 Weirdhaircut Seth (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 Boompa (ML 4-1)
# 4 My Son John (ML 20-1)
# 7 Etailer (ML 6-1)
Needless to say, I considered this race to be extremely contentious, as every runner is being used in some shape or form; so if you can do so and stay within your budget, you might want to give serious thought to just hitting the "ALL" button on your big ticket here.
Exemplar took the Show at this class level last time out. Redneck Crazy finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two races against more expensive.
H R Express has shown good early speed in each of his last two contests and could be rounding up to a new best effort. Unbridled Rocket took the Place against more expensive last time out. Curly Road and Weirdharicut Seth both drop in for the lowest price tag of their respective careers.
Rideo was over-matched against more expensive last time out and should improve with the class drop. The "C's" are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The City of Hope Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Obviously (Ire) (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Om (ML 2-1)
# 10 Vyjack (ML 4-1)
Obviously (Ire), winner of the Grade 3 Poker on the east coast last time out, looks in good position to wire this field today. Om, like Obviously a multiple Graded Stakes winner over this turf course, will hope to stay close and overtake Obviously in the stretch. Vyjack, the "other" Phil D'Amato, could be in good position to get up late before the closers have a chance to get into gear.
RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Iron Curtain (ML 15-1)
# 11 Downside Up (ML 4-1)
B's
# 9 Westmont (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Joshuas Glory (ML 50-1)
# 6 Enter the Code (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 4 Loud Stalker (ML 6-1)
Iron Curtain showed good early speed in his debut last time out with the apprentice rider on his back. Downside Up took the Place at this class level two and three starts back. Westmont finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.
Joshuas Glory had a hard work early this week at Los Alamitos, after not showing much last time out in his debut. Enter the Code finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.
RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Partyinthepaddock (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Diva La Mousse (ML 5-1)
# 6 Go Baby Run (ML 8-1)
# 7 Munny Spunt (ML 12-1)
# 8 Settle Down Eileen (ML 12-1)
# 9 Gio's Lady (ML 6-1)
# 11 Grand Prix (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Street Love (ML 6-1); # 13 Ciao Bella Rosa (ML 3-1); # 14 Laura's Babydoll (ML 10-1)
Partyinthepaddock showed good form in her debut on dirt last time out, and having Harlan's Holiday as a sire suggests that she'll handle the turf well. Diva La Mousse has shown good early speed in each of her two prior career starts, both on the main track.
Munny Spunt is a first time starter sired by Munnings, whose progeny tend to do well in their debuts. Settle Down Eileen and Grand Prix have both shown good early speed sprinting on the dirt, while Gio's Lady and Go Baby Run showed some early quickness last time out while routing on the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9,10 with 8 with 2,11 with 10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,5,6,8,9,10 with 8 with 2,9,11 with 4,6,7,8,9,10,11 $73.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,4,7 with 8 with 2,11 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9,10 with 4,10 with 2,11 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9,10 with 8 with 3,6 with 10 $2.00
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 2, 2016
10/2/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The John Henry Turf Classic - # 6 Ashleyluvssugar (Final Odds 3.40) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Tapped (3.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Silent Bird (8.00) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 How Unusual (5.60) - "B" Selection
Tapped's victory in the second leg came by virtue of winning the head bob over our "A" Selection in that contest, # 2 Jilly (3.50*); and the nose difference that separated those two runners at the wire was the difference between us cashing or trashing our tickets today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 11 / 3 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $702.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 11 Tapped (3.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Silent Bird (8.00) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 How Unusual (5.60) - "B" Selection
Tapped's victory in the second leg came by virtue of winning the head bob over our "A" Selection in that contest, # 2 Jilly (3.50*); and the nose difference that separated those two runners at the wire was the difference between us cashing or trashing our tickets today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 11 / 3 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $702.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/2/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Opening Weekend continues at Santa Anita, with the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship anchoring the card as Sunday's featured race. We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - The John Henry Turf Championship (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Ashleluvssugar (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 1 El Huerfano (ML 20-1)
# 8 Messi (Ger) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Texas Ryano (ML 12-1)
C's
# 3 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Metaboss (ML 7-2)
Ashleyluvssugar won the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap last time out with a front running style, a repeat of which should get him back into the Winner's Circle today. El Huerfano looks to be the quickest early in this field, and he draws the rail; maybe he can steal this one. Messi (Ger) won the Grade 2 Sky Classic at Woodbine last time out by being up on the pace; look for him to be forwardly placed today as well.
Texas Ryano shows a steadily improving form, and he has shown the ability to hit the board while using a variety of running styles. Flamboyant (Fr) and Metaboss look to be the ones that will be running best late.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Jilly (ML 6-1)
# 5 Viva Vegas (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 True Testament (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Bernina Star (ML 6-1)
# 4 Marley's Freedom (ML 12-1)
# 9 Americana (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 10 Rosie Bear (No Line)
Jilly removes the hood for her second career start; runners for Trainer Bob Baffert tend to do well when making that move. Also note how much sharper Jilly was in her most recent work; though I don't know if that work was with or without the blinkers.
Viva Vegas, also trained by Baffert, has disappointed in her first two starts as the Post Time Favorite. Expect Viva Vegas to be the early leader today.
True Testament, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, closed well in her debut last time out, and could benefit from the added real estate to be covered today. Bernina Star took the Place at this class level last time out; but the concern with Bernina Star is that runners for Trainer James Cassidy don't often move forward in their second career try.
Marley's Freedom is a first time starter sired by Blame, whose progeny tend to do well in their initial tries. Americana may benefit from the hood removal in this, her second career start.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Silent Bird (ML 5-1)
# 7 Schillairess (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Rocket Fuel (ML 5-1)
# 5 Forest Blue (ML 5-2)
C's
RACE 6 - The John Henry Turf Championship (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Ashleluvssugar (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 1 El Huerfano (ML 20-1)
# 8 Messi (Ger) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Texas Ryano (ML 12-1)
C's
# 3 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Metaboss (ML 7-2)
Ashleyluvssugar won the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap last time out with a front running style, a repeat of which should get him back into the Winner's Circle today. El Huerfano looks to be the quickest early in this field, and he draws the rail; maybe he can steal this one. Messi (Ger) won the Grade 2 Sky Classic at Woodbine last time out by being up on the pace; look for him to be forwardly placed today as well.
Texas Ryano shows a steadily improving form, and he has shown the ability to hit the board while using a variety of running styles. Flamboyant (Fr) and Metaboss look to be the ones that will be running best late.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Jilly (ML 6-1)
# 5 Viva Vegas (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 True Testament (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Bernina Star (ML 6-1)
# 4 Marley's Freedom (ML 12-1)
# 9 Americana (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 10 Rosie Bear (No Line)
Jilly removes the hood for her second career start; runners for Trainer Bob Baffert tend to do well when making that move. Also note how much sharper Jilly was in her most recent work; though I don't know if that work was with or without the blinkers.
Viva Vegas, also trained by Baffert, has disappointed in her first two starts as the Post Time Favorite. Expect Viva Vegas to be the early leader today.
True Testament, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, closed well in her debut last time out, and could benefit from the added real estate to be covered today. Bernina Star took the Place at this class level last time out; but the concern with Bernina Star is that runners for Trainer James Cassidy don't often move forward in their second career try.
Marley's Freedom is a first time starter sired by Blame, whose progeny tend to do well in their initial tries. Americana may benefit from the hood removal in this, her second career start.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Silent Bird (ML 5-1)
# 7 Schillairess (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Rocket Fuel (ML 5-1)
# 5 Forest Blue (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Handful of Stripes (ML 12-1)
Silent Bird won at this class level last time out; but that last time out was nearly nine months ago. Still, the value should be there for Silent Bird, as natural maturation for this four year old should guarantee his ability to remain competitive at this class level.
Schillairess took the Show at this class level last time out, and should be the one in front early. Rocket Fuel gave his career worst performance last time out, which was followed by two months on the bench. Rocket Fuel took the Place at this level two starts back, so he can definitely compete here; but I suspect that he may need a race to get back into top form.
Forest Blue may be the best in this field, but Forest Blue seems to settle for too many minor awards. Handful of Stripes was an easy winner when graduating last time out; perhaps he finally gets what this is all about.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 75k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Ok Doll (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 How Unusual (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Sutton's Smile (ML 4-1)
# 6 Do the Dance (ML 12-1)
# 11 Dashin Ashen (ML 8-1)
# 11 Dashin Ashen (ML 8-1)
Scratch #12 Lynne's Legacy (NL), # 13 Fevent Femme (NL), and # 14 Mrs. Norris (NL)
Ok Doll took the Place at this class level last time out and projects to be leading the pack early. How Unusual, who was about a length behind Ok Doll at the wire in that contest, should be more forwardly placed early today with the addition of blinkers.
Sutton's Smile fits well here on class, but seems to settle for too many minor awards. Do the Dance defeated older on the turf at today's distance two starts back. Dashin Ashen tries the turf for the first time today; and while the breeding doesn't suggest grass, Dashin Ashen's early quickness should insure that she is at least a pace presence.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 2,5 with 3,7 with 8 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,10 with 2,5,6 with 3,4,5,7 with 2,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,5 with 3,7 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,9 with 3,7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,5 with 2 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,5 with 2 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,5 with 3,7 with 4,6,11 $6.00
Total: $66.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EDT / 3:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 1, 2016
10/1/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Rodeo Drive - # 4 Avenge (Final Odds 5.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Zenyatta - # 5 Stellar Wind (2.00) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Chandelier - #2 Noted and Quoted (7.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Unzip Me - # 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (6.40) - "B" Selection
You all already know how this works: we had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket. A little tinkering here or there with our selections might have altered that result; but lacking as we do a time machine, today will have to stand as a day for us to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which we were alive in the finale:
# 10 Swift Lady (3.30*) - $385.05 Finish: 12th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $770.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Zenyatta - # 5 Stellar Wind (2.00) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Chandelier - #2 Noted and Quoted (7.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Unzip Me - # 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (6.40) - "B" Selection
You all already know how this works: we had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket. A little tinkering here or there with our selections might have altered that result; but lacking as we do a time machine, today will have to stand as a day for us to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which we were alive in the finale:
# 10 Swift Lady (3.30*) - $385.05 Finish: 12th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $770.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/1/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Opening Saturday at Santa Anita Park, and they've put together a huge card filled with Graded Stakes, including several Breeders' Cup Win And You're In contests. Three of those Grade 1's have found their way onto the final four slots in the program; so we'll be taking a look at them below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - (F) The Rodeo Drive (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Avenge (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 8 Fresh Feline (ML 20-1)
# 12 Zipessa (ML 7-2)
# 13 Elektrum (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 14 Sobradora Inc (Arg) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Keri Belle (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 20-1) and # 10 Nancy From Nairobi (ML 10-1)
Avenge and Zipessa project to be the front runners in this field; a nice advantage when you have a dozen runners leaving the gate, as it means you won't have to skirt through traffic late. Advantage to Avenge for her victory last time out in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee.
Fresh Feline just missed victory by a neck in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon two starts back. Fresh Feline has demonstrated the ability to win at this distance over this course in the past.
As mentioned above, Zipessa, winner of the Grade 3 Dr. James Penny Memorial two starts back, should be forwardly placed early. Elektrum (Ire), who was a neck behind Avenge at the wire last time out in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee, could be the one running best late. Sobradora Inc (Arg) and Keri Belle are two that could improve with the added distance.
RACE 9 - (F) The Zenyatta (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Beholder (ML 3-5)
# 5 Stellar Wind (ML 8-5)
B's
# 3 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 10-1)
C's
None
There's not much I can tell you about Beholder and Stellar Wind that you don't already know. Vale Dori (Arg), a Grade 1 winner in her native Argentina, projects to be the early leader; so all Vale Dori will have to do to win is hold off Beholder in the stretch and Stellar Wind at the wire; what could be easier?
Somewhat more seriously, Vale Dori acquitted herself quite well against the males in the Grade 2 UAE Derby earlier this year, and could be ready to move forward just due to natural maturation. Perhaps the challenge today is too much too soon for the Bob Baffert trained Vale Dori; and while that's certainly a valid opinion, if Vale Dori does step forward in the way that I believe that she can today, even if she should fall short, this will mark the last time that you'll be able to get her at double digit odds.
RACE 10 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Champagne Room (ML 4-1)
# 4 Zapperkat (ML 9-2)
# 5 American Cleopatra (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 With Honors (ML 9-2)
# 2 Noted and Quoted (ML 6-1)
# 8 Mistressofthenight (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 9 Princess Coco (ML 15-1)
Champagne Room is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field of juvenile fillies, having gotten her picture taken two starts back after the Grade 2 Sorrento. Champagne Room and American Cleopatra took the Show and Place, respectively, in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante last time out.
Zapperkat was most impressive winner her debut last time out, and she could improve with the added distance. With Honors will be tough if she can handle the surface switch. Noted and Quoted is the "other" Baffert. Mistressofthenight is the one that could be running best late.
RACE 11 - (F) The Unzip Me $70k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Swift Lady (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Nine Point Nine (ML 20-1)
C's
# 6 Nodiac (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 9 Cheekaboo (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 12-1). Bring in # 13 Cover Song (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Swift Lady is two-for-three lifetime charging down the hill, and has yet to finish out of the Exacta when not competing against So Sweetitiz. Belvoir Bay (GB) is a stakes winner on both turf and dirt, and the front running style that Belvoir Bay has demonstrated when routing on the grass is a trait shared by those that tend to do well when shifting to the downhill course.
Nine Point Nine should improve with the move back to turf sprints. Nodiac (Ire) and Cheekaboo are both fine horses that fit well here on class, but who may be disadvantaged by the cutback in distance.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,12,13,14 with 2,3,5 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,10 $67.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 1,2,8 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 6,9 $6.00
Total: $85.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:09 EDT / 4:09 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - (F) The Rodeo Drive (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Avenge (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 8 Fresh Feline (ML 20-1)
# 12 Zipessa (ML 7-2)
# 13 Elektrum (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 14 Sobradora Inc (Arg) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Keri Belle (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 20-1) and # 10 Nancy From Nairobi (ML 10-1)
Avenge and Zipessa project to be the front runners in this field; a nice advantage when you have a dozen runners leaving the gate, as it means you won't have to skirt through traffic late. Advantage to Avenge for her victory last time out in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee.
Fresh Feline just missed victory by a neck in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon two starts back. Fresh Feline has demonstrated the ability to win at this distance over this course in the past.
As mentioned above, Zipessa, winner of the Grade 3 Dr. James Penny Memorial two starts back, should be forwardly placed early. Elektrum (Ire), who was a neck behind Avenge at the wire last time out in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee, could be the one running best late. Sobradora Inc (Arg) and Keri Belle are two that could improve with the added distance.
RACE 9 - (F) The Zenyatta (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Beholder (ML 3-5)
# 5 Stellar Wind (ML 8-5)
B's
# 3 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 10-1)
C's
None
There's not much I can tell you about Beholder and Stellar Wind that you don't already know. Vale Dori (Arg), a Grade 1 winner in her native Argentina, projects to be the early leader; so all Vale Dori will have to do to win is hold off Beholder in the stretch and Stellar Wind at the wire; what could be easier?
Somewhat more seriously, Vale Dori acquitted herself quite well against the males in the Grade 2 UAE Derby earlier this year, and could be ready to move forward just due to natural maturation. Perhaps the challenge today is too much too soon for the Bob Baffert trained Vale Dori; and while that's certainly a valid opinion, if Vale Dori does step forward in the way that I believe that she can today, even if she should fall short, this will mark the last time that you'll be able to get her at double digit odds.
RACE 10 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Champagne Room (ML 4-1)
# 4 Zapperkat (ML 9-2)
# 5 American Cleopatra (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 With Honors (ML 9-2)
# 2 Noted and Quoted (ML 6-1)
# 8 Mistressofthenight (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 9 Princess Coco (ML 15-1)
Champagne Room is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field of juvenile fillies, having gotten her picture taken two starts back after the Grade 2 Sorrento. Champagne Room and American Cleopatra took the Show and Place, respectively, in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante last time out.
Zapperkat was most impressive winner her debut last time out, and she could improve with the added distance. With Honors will be tough if she can handle the surface switch. Noted and Quoted is the "other" Baffert. Mistressofthenight is the one that could be running best late.
RACE 11 - (F) The Unzip Me $70k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Swift Lady (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Nine Point Nine (ML 20-1)
C's
# 6 Nodiac (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 9 Cheekaboo (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 12-1). Bring in # 13 Cover Song (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Swift Lady is two-for-three lifetime charging down the hill, and has yet to finish out of the Exacta when not competing against So Sweetitiz. Belvoir Bay (GB) is a stakes winner on both turf and dirt, and the front running style that Belvoir Bay has demonstrated when routing on the grass is a trait shared by those that tend to do well when shifting to the downhill course.
Nine Point Nine should improve with the move back to turf sprints. Nodiac (Ire) and Cheekaboo are both fine horses that fit well here on class, but who may be disadvantaged by the cutback in distance.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
$1.00 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,12,13,14 with 2,3,5 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,10 $67.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 1,2,8 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 6,9 $6.00
Total: $85.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:09 EDT / 4:09 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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