10/1/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Opening Saturday at Santa Anita Park, and they've put together a huge card filled with Graded Stakes, including several Breeders' Cup Win And You're In contests.  Three of those Grade 1's have found their way onto the final four slots in the program; so we'll be taking a look at them below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - (F) The Rodeo Drive (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Avenge (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 8 Fresh Feline (ML 20-1)
# 12 Zipessa (ML 7-2)
# 13 Elektrum (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 14 Sobradora Inc (Arg) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Keri Belle (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 3 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 20-1) and # 10 Nancy From Nairobi (ML 10-1)

Avenge and Zipessa project to be the front runners in this field; a nice advantage when you have a dozen runners leaving the gate, as it means you won't have to skirt through traffic late.  Advantage to Avenge for her victory last time out in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee.

Fresh Feline just missed victory by a neck in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon two starts back.  Fresh Feline has demonstrated the ability to win at this distance over this course in the past.

As mentioned above, Zipessa, winner of the Grade 3 Dr. James Penny Memorial two starts back, should be forwardly placed early.  Elektrum (Ire), who was a neck behind Avenge at the wire last time out in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee, could be the one running best late.  Sobradora Inc (Arg) and Keri Belle are two that could improve with the added distance.

RACE 9 - (F) The Zenyatta (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Beholder (ML 3-5)
# 5 Stellar Wind (ML 8-5)

B's

# 3 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 10-1)

C's

None

There's not much I can tell you about Beholder and Stellar Wind that you don't already know.  Vale Dori (Arg), a Grade 1 winner in her native Argentina, projects to be the early leader; so all Vale Dori will have to do to win is hold off Beholder in the stretch and Stellar Wind at the wire; what could be easier?

Somewhat more seriously, Vale Dori acquitted herself quite well against the males in the Grade 2 UAE Derby earlier this year, and could be ready to move forward just due to natural maturation.  Perhaps the challenge today is too much too soon for the Bob Baffert trained Vale Dori; and while that's certainly a valid opinion, if Vale Dori does step forward in the way that I believe that she can today, even if she should fall short, this will mark the last time that you'll be able to get her at double digit odds.

RACE 10 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Champagne Room (ML 4-1)
# 4 Zapperkat (ML 9-2)
# 5 American Cleopatra (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 With Honors (ML 9-2)
# 2 Noted and Quoted (ML 6-1)
# 8 Mistressofthenight (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 9 Princess Coco (ML 15-1)

Champagne Room is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field of juvenile fillies, having gotten her picture taken two starts back after the Grade 2 Sorrento.  Champagne Room and American Cleopatra took the Show and Place, respectively, in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante last time out.

Zapperkat was most impressive winner her debut last time out, and she could improve with the added distance.  With Honors will be tough if she can handle the surface switch.  Noted and Quoted is the "other" Baffert.  Mistressofthenight is the one that could be running best late.

RACE 11 - (F) The Unzip Me $70k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 10 Swift Lady (ML 9-2)

B's

# 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Nine Point Nine (ML 20-1)

C's

# 6 Nodiac (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 9 Cheekaboo (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 8 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 12-1).  Bring in # 13 Cover Song (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.

Swift Lady is two-for-three lifetime charging down the hill, and has yet to finish out of the Exacta when not competing against So Sweetitiz.  Belvoir Bay (GB) is a stakes winner on both turf and dirt, and the front running style that Belvoir Bay has demonstrated when routing on the grass is a trait shared by those that tend to do well when shifting to the downhill course.

Nine Point Nine should improve with the move back to turf sprints.  Nodiac (Ire) and Cheekaboo are both fine horses that fit well here on class, but who may be disadvantaged by the cutback in distance.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 10 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,8,12,13,14 with 2,3,5 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,10 $67.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 1,2,8 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,5 with 3,4,5 with 6,9 $6.00

Total: $85.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:09 EDT / 4:09 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo