The Grade 3 Autumn Miss for three year old fillies is Saturday's featured race at Santa Anita. We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Triple Clown (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Dr. Crabby (ML 6-1)
# 8 It's Just Bob (ML 4-1)
C's
# 9 Trump Diesel (ML 5-1)
# 10 Weirdhaircut Seth (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rideo (ML 4-1)
Triple Clown took the Show two starts back against $25k N2L Starter Allowance company at today's distance. Dr. Crabby was within a length of the winner at the wire against open $32k claimers last time out; but that was back in December. However, Dr. Carbby did win his career debut, so he is capable of finding the Winner's Circle off just works.
It's Just Bob was within a length of the winner at the wire against slightly more expensive two and three starts back. Trump Diesel returns to a more realistic class level today, while Rideo and Weirdhaircut Seth took the Place and Show, respectively, last time out at this class level.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Sports Reporter (ML 8-1)
B's
# 2 Bobby G (ML 4-1)
# 5 Show Me Da Lute (ML 6-1)
# 7 Sonneteer (ML 5-2)
C's
# 6 Troublewithatee (ML 6-1)
Sports Reporter and Show Me Da Lute are a pair of first time starters trained by Bob Baffert. I give the edge to Sports Reporter because progeny of Harlan's Holiday (Sports Reporter's sire) tend to do better at first asking than those of Midnight Lute (Show Me Da Lute's sire).
Sonneteer took the Place at this class level last time out, with Bobby G crossing under the wire less than a length behind him. Troublewithatee was much improved last time out in his first stat with blinkers on; perhaps Troublewithatee can build off that effort.
RACE 8 - (F) The Autumn Miss (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Danilovna (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 3 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Barleysugar (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 9 Dreamarcher (ML 12-1)
Over the course of her last four races, Belvoir Bay (GB) has picked up three stakes victories; one on the Del Mar main track, one charging down the hill, and one going two turns over this flat turf course. With those victories, Belvoir Bay has demonstrated not just her versatility, but also the ability to consistently win versus stakes company. It's the latter trait that sets hers apart from the rest of this field, and is one reason why Belvoir Bay will be a single on our big ticket.
The other reason why Belvoir Bay will be a single on our tickets is because I don't see a clear second and/or third choice among the rest of this field that I can cite as the main threat to Belvoir Bay today. That's not to say that I think no one in this group can defeat Belvoir Bay; indeed, I am very far from saying that. But what I am saying is that the rest of this field appears to be so evenly matched that, were I try to spread in this leg on our big ticket, there would be no reasonable way I can see to add just one or two other contenders, unless I was to just randomly stab among a group of similarly talented runners. Or, to put it another way, were Belvoir Bay not in this field, this would be a contest where hitting the "ALL" button would probably be the best strategy.
The "C" Selections that I have added are those that I think could possibly move forward today off their most recent efforts. But I say again that you could pick any or all of the rest of the field for that spot on our tickets. Perhaps the best way to sum up how I feel about this contest is to say that I think Belvoir Bay has a small but clear advantage over the rest of this field, with everyone else breaking from the gate tied for second best.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Amodei (ML 6-1)
# 4 If Ur Not Early (ML 4-1)
# 7 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Cupid's Beau (ML 12-1)
# 3 Dickie (ML 20-1)
# 5 He's All That (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dr. Troutman (ML 6-1)
# 10 Woodfox (ML 20-1)
# 11 Iron Curtain (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 6 Loud Stalker (ML 20-1) and # 9 Close to Midnight (ML 6-1)
Amodei took that Place at this class level two starts back. If Ur Not Early disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out while taking the Place. Ann Arbor Eddie is a first time starter sired by Square Eddie, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking, especially in contests restricted to California breds.
The "B" Selections are everyone else, as this one looks to be quite contentious. Good luck to those playing the Super Hi Five here, as I expect the payout, despite the shortened field, to be well worth your while.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 10 with 1,4,7 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,8 with 2,3,5,7 with 10 with ALL $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 9,10,11 with 3 with 10 with 1,4,7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 6 with 10 with 1,4,7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1,3,5,9 with 1,4,7 $6.00
Total: $69.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EDT / 3:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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