The California Flag is Saturday's featured race at Santa Anita; and while we won't be analyzing that particular contest down the hill, we will be looking at a different pair of hill charges, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Tally Mo (Morning Line 12-1)
# 4 Avalanche (ML 9-2)
# 6 South Americain (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Cut (ML 5-2); # 12 Conscripted (ML 10-1); # 13 Dixie Pistol (ML 9-2); # 14 Bitte (ML 6-1)
Seven of the ten juveniles that are set to break from the gate in this contest are first time starters; and none of the three experienced runners have ever competed on turf, let alone charged down the hill. So your guess is at least as good as mine as to how any of these runners are going to handle the trip. For those with bigger budgets, the "ALL" button looks very inviting here; but rather than go that route, I've selected the three competitors in this field (all three of whom are debut runners) whose breeding I believe gives them the edge in a field where everyone is trying the turf for the first time.
RACE 7 - Hcp 10000s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Adair (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 5 Success Rate (ML 9-2)
# 7 Aperfectdaytofly (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Madelyn's Wild Max (ML 9-2)
# 4 Royal F J (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 6 Outthink 'em (ML12-1)
Note for future reference that there is no lifetime Win restriction for entrants in this contest. So any runner three years old an upward that has started for a claiming price of $10k or less since June 1, 2015, is eligible to run here.
Adair goes first off the claim for Trainer Ruben Gomez, who tends to do well with such. Adair is three-for-five lifetime over this main track.
Success Rate goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who tends to do well with such. Aperfectdaytofly has been showing steady gradual improve over his most recent starts. Madelyn's Wild Max and Royal F J are a pair of re-claims, rejoining the barn of a trainer from whom they had been recently claimed away.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Moonlight Drive (Ity) (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Bottle Rocket (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Secreto Primero (ML 9-2)
# 3 Fueled by Bourbon (ML 8-1)
# 5 Banze No Oeste (Brz) (ML 6-1)
Moonlight Drive (Ity) tries the hill for the first time; and while Moonlight Drive hasn't shown the front running style when routing on the flats that I like to see on runners charging down the hill for the first time, Moonlight Drive has proven to be quick enough for my tastes; and Moonlight Drive's Show finish two starts back in the Grade 3 LaJolla suggests that he may have the class edge over this field that will allow him to overcome any other deficiencies that may stand in his way today.
Bottle Rocket was victorious at this approximate class level two starts back while sprinting at Del Mar. Secreto Primero lost all chance early last time out in the Grade 3 Eddie D; but Secreto Primero has performed well in prior tries down the hill.
Fueled by Bourbon runs at his best when charging down the hill. Banze No Oeste (Brz) moves up in class after closing well last time out to win in his first try navigating the hill.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Pop Pop's Pizza (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Lucky Days Ahead (ML 5-1)
# 2 First Heir (ML 6-1)
# 4 And Then Some (ML 4-1)
# 6 Runbrorun (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Pop Pop's Pizza showed great improvement since joining the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato. Pop Pop's Pizza now returns from a thirteen month layoff; D'Amato tends to do well with such.
Lucky Days Ahead took the Show behind Runbrorun at this class level last time out. Runbrorun actually crossed the wire first in that contest, but had his number taken down due to causing interference. And Then Some took the Place at this class level last time out.
First Heir is a four year old first time starter sired by Candy Ride who is being offered for sale here at a significant discount over the $175k for which he was purchased at auction as a yearling. While that's typically a red flag, Trainer John Sadler tends to do well with this move.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,4,6 with 3 with 1 with 11 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6 with 3,5,7 with 1,4 with 1,2,4,6,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6 with 1,4 with 1 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6 with 3 with 2,3,5 with 11 $4.50
Total: $55.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EDT / 3:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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