Race 11 - The Arkansas Derby (First Division) - # 1 Charlatan (Final Odds 0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Oaklawn Handicap - # 12 By My Standards (4.50) - "C" Selection
Race 13 - The Arkansas Derby (Second Division) - # 5 Nadal (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 14 - # 9 Take Charge d'Oro (18.80) - "C" Selection
There's not much to say regarding the results of my play on Saturday, as I again found myself alive entering the final leg, only to fall short of cashing. So I will instead use this space to congratulate the runners and connections who were victorious, and hope that Trainer Bob Baffert winning with three year olds on the first Saturday in May is a sign that things will soon be back to normal.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 1 Dangerfield (5.40) - $68.10 Finish: 3rd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 12 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $232.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 2, 2020
5/2/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“Don’t let yesterday take up too much of today.” – Will Rogers
It's the first Saturday in May, and, needless to say, a lot has changed since the last first Saturday in May. A lot. But while it's not what we were expecting, there's no complaints as to what we have; for what we have Saturday is, not one, but two Derbies, as twenty-two entrants caused the good folks in Hot Springs to split their featured contest into two divisions. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 11 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (First Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Charlatan (Morning Line 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 My Friends Beer (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mo Mosa (ML 30-1)
# 4 Gouverneur Morris (ML 9-2)
# 5 Jungle Runner (ML 30-1)
# 8 Anneau d'Or (ML 6-1)
# 9 Winning Impression (ML 15-1)
# 10 Crypto Cash (ML 20-1)
# 11 Basin (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Shooters Shoot (ML 8-1) and # 7 Wrecking Crew (ML 20-1)
If you're going to single, it's best to do it in the opening leg and get it out of the way. The only question in my mind with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan is how he'll handle the distance; and I hope that if Charlatan struggles getting all nine furlongs, that he'll at least be so far in front that he'll still be un-catchable. So Charlatan gets the solo spot on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 12 - The Oaklawn Handicap (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mr Freeze (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Trophy Chaser (ML 12-1)
# 7 Combatant (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tacitus (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Chess Chief (ML 30-1)
# 3 Bravazo (ML 30-1)
# 5 Identifier (ML 20-1)
# 6 Warrior's Charge (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sky Promise (ML 20-1)
# 10 Captivating Moon (ML 20-1)
# 11 Tax (ML 15-1)
# 12 By My Standards (ML 9-2)
# 13 Night Ops (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 14 Improbable (ML 8-1)
Mr Freeze has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last five Graded Stakes starts, and Mr Freeze appears to be entering this contest in top form for Trainer Dale Romans. Trophy Chaser, winner of the Grade 3 Challenger last time out, fits well here with the contenders.
Combatant, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last time out, has been working well for this event. Tacitus can be expected to improve with the return to the US. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 13 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (Second Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Nadal (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 King Guillermo (ML 3-1)
# 7 Silver Prospector (ML 10-1)
# 10 Farmington Road (ML 12-1)
# 11 Wells Bayou (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 15-1)
# 3 Storm the Court (ML 6-1)
# 6 Code Runner (ML 50-1)
# 9 Taishan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 2 Saratogian (ML 50-1) and # 8 Fast Enough (ML 12-1)
Insert your favorite tennis pun here, as Nadal, undefeated in three career starts (including two Graded Stakes) looks to be best here. King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby last time out on the front end, might actually be the one running best late; though Farmington Road also appears to be a candidate for that title.
Silver Prospector, winner of the Grade 3 Southwest two starts back, could improve off his last start with a cleaner trip. Wells Bayou, winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and second behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest two starts back, has consistently run well over this track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 14 - Alw 10000s - Fourteen Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dangerfield (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 5 Carlos Sixes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Wickets Way (ML 8-1)
# 11 The Rouge Diesel (ML 15-1)
# 13 Curlin Grey (ML 10-1)
# 14 River Echo (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Stuart Hall (ML 20-1)
# 4 Magic Vow (ML 5-1)
# 6 Whole Lotta Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 Ghostly Who (ML 12-1)
# 9 Take Charge d'Oro (ML 10-1)
# 10 Wild About You (ML 10-1)
# 12 She Might Tell (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 2 Hard to Impress (ML 50-1)
This is a pretty straight forward Starter Allowance, as far as conditions go, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $10k or less, this year or last, is eligible to run here.
Dangerfield and Carlos Sixes are a pair of last out winners going for trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Karl Broberg, respectively) who tend to do well when going for two in a row. Wickets Way, Show runner behind Dangerfield last time out, could improve with the added distance.
The Rouge Diesel won the running of this event last year, at a very nice price. Curlin Grey seems well bred to run all day. River Echo (GB) is going first off the claim for Trainer Cipriano Contreras, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,7,9 with 4,5,7,10,11 with 1,5,7,11,13,14 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11 with 4 with 5 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,3,5,6,8,10,11,12,13 with 5 with 1 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1,3,6,9 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 3,4,6,8,9,10,12 $3.50
Total: $75.00
Post Time for Race 11 is 6:29 EDT / 3:29 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
It's the first Saturday in May, and, needless to say, a lot has changed since the last first Saturday in May. A lot. But while it's not what we were expecting, there's no complaints as to what we have; for what we have Saturday is, not one, but two Derbies, as twenty-two entrants caused the good folks in Hot Springs to split their featured contest into two divisions. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 11 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (First Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Charlatan (Morning Line 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 My Friends Beer (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mo Mosa (ML 30-1)
# 4 Gouverneur Morris (ML 9-2)
# 5 Jungle Runner (ML 30-1)
# 8 Anneau d'Or (ML 6-1)
# 9 Winning Impression (ML 15-1)
# 10 Crypto Cash (ML 20-1)
# 11 Basin (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Shooters Shoot (ML 8-1) and # 7 Wrecking Crew (ML 20-1)
If you're going to single, it's best to do it in the opening leg and get it out of the way. The only question in my mind with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan is how he'll handle the distance; and I hope that if Charlatan struggles getting all nine furlongs, that he'll at least be so far in front that he'll still be un-catchable. So Charlatan gets the solo spot on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 12 - The Oaklawn Handicap (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mr Freeze (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Trophy Chaser (ML 12-1)
# 7 Combatant (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tacitus (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Chess Chief (ML 30-1)
# 3 Bravazo (ML 30-1)
# 5 Identifier (ML 20-1)
# 6 Warrior's Charge (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sky Promise (ML 20-1)
# 10 Captivating Moon (ML 20-1)
# 11 Tax (ML 15-1)
# 12 By My Standards (ML 9-2)
# 13 Night Ops (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 14 Improbable (ML 8-1)
Mr Freeze has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last five Graded Stakes starts, and Mr Freeze appears to be entering this contest in top form for Trainer Dale Romans. Trophy Chaser, winner of the Grade 3 Challenger last time out, fits well here with the contenders.
Combatant, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last time out, has been working well for this event. Tacitus can be expected to improve with the return to the US. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 13 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (Second Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Nadal (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 King Guillermo (ML 3-1)
# 7 Silver Prospector (ML 10-1)
# 10 Farmington Road (ML 12-1)
# 11 Wells Bayou (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 15-1)
# 3 Storm the Court (ML 6-1)
# 6 Code Runner (ML 50-1)
# 9 Taishan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 2 Saratogian (ML 50-1) and # 8 Fast Enough (ML 12-1)
Insert your favorite tennis pun here, as Nadal, undefeated in three career starts (including two Graded Stakes) looks to be best here. King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby last time out on the front end, might actually be the one running best late; though Farmington Road also appears to be a candidate for that title.
Silver Prospector, winner of the Grade 3 Southwest two starts back, could improve off his last start with a cleaner trip. Wells Bayou, winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and second behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest two starts back, has consistently run well over this track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 14 - Alw 10000s - Fourteen Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dangerfield (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 5 Carlos Sixes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Wickets Way (ML 8-1)
# 11 The Rouge Diesel (ML 15-1)
# 13 Curlin Grey (ML 10-1)
# 14 River Echo (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Stuart Hall (ML 20-1)
# 4 Magic Vow (ML 5-1)
# 6 Whole Lotta Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 Ghostly Who (ML 12-1)
# 9 Take Charge d'Oro (ML 10-1)
# 10 Wild About You (ML 10-1)
# 12 She Might Tell (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 2 Hard to Impress (ML 50-1)
This is a pretty straight forward Starter Allowance, as far as conditions go, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $10k or less, this year or last, is eligible to run here.
Dangerfield and Carlos Sixes are a pair of last out winners going for trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Karl Broberg, respectively) who tend to do well when going for two in a row. Wickets Way, Show runner behind Dangerfield last time out, could improve with the added distance.
The Rouge Diesel won the running of this event last year, at a very nice price. Curlin Grey seems well bred to run all day. River Echo (GB) is going first off the claim for Trainer Cipriano Contreras, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,7,9 with 4,5,7,10,11 with 1,5,7,11,13,14 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11 with 4 with 5 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,3,5,6,8,10,11,12,13 with 5 with 1 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1,3,6,9 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 3,4,6,8,9,10,12 $3.50
Total: $75.00
Post Time for Race 11 is 6:29 EDT / 3:29 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, May 1, 2020
5/1/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Arkansas Breeders' Championship - # 11 Man in the Can (Final Odds 4.90) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Gardenia - # 2 Piece of My Heart (8.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Fantasy - # 3 Swiss Skydiver (16.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Spend Spend Spend (2.00*) - "B" Selection
Having won the first three legs of the sequence only to lose the nightcap in each of my previous two publicized attempts at Oaklawn Park's Late Pick Four, I decided to switch things up a bit Friday and connect on the final three contests after failing to have to winner of the curtain jerker on my main ticket. So that makes three tries in a row in which I've connected on three quarters of the sequence; and I'm sure you all already know how much that pays.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 2 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,123.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Gardenia - # 2 Piece of My Heart (8.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Fantasy - # 3 Swiss Skydiver (16.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Spend Spend Spend (2.00*) - "B" Selection
Having won the first three legs of the sequence only to lose the nightcap in each of my previous two publicized attempts at Oaklawn Park's Late Pick Four, I decided to switch things up a bit Friday and connect on the final three contests after failing to have to winner of the curtain jerker on my main ticket. So that makes three tries in a row in which I've connected on three quarters of the sequence; and I'm sure you all already know how much that pays.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 2 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,123.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/1/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“The same boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It’s what you’re made of. Not the circumstances.” - Anonymous
And so we arrive at the closing weekend for the meet at Hot Springs, with Friday's card featuring a trio of stakes, the most prominent being the Grade 3 Fantasy for three year old fillies. I'll be taking a look at all three contests below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 7 - [S] The Arkansas Breeders' Championship $165k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 K J's Nobility (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 10 Glacken's Ghost (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Promising Shoes (ML 5-1)
# 2 Souixper Charger (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hamazing Vision (ML 9-2)
# 5 Prospector Fever (ML 8-1)
# 6 J. E.'s Handmedown (ML 15-1)
# 7 Destiny Way (ML 20-1)
# 8 Heritage Park (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bandit Point (ML 10-1)
# 11 Man in the Can (ML 6-1)
K J's Nobility has won three of his last four contests, including an open length victory last time out in the $100k Nodouble Breeders' Stakes (which, like today's contest, was restricted to state bred entrants only). Glacken's Ghost, soundly defeated by K J's Nobility last time out, could turn the tables on that rival with the added distance. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gardenia $80k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gingham (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Piece of My Heart (ML 8-1)
# 5 Daphne Moon (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Flag (ML 9-2)
# 10 Antoinette (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Turnstone (ML 30-1)
# 8 Comical (ML 15-1)
# 11 His Glory (ML 8-1)
# 12 Shanghai Keely (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 1 Black Kat Taps (ML 30-1); # 6 Quick Decision (ML 12-1); # 9 Ice Princess (ML 10-1); # 13 Kiss the Girl (ML 30-1); and # 14 Punk Rock (ML 30-1)
Gingham took the Place behind Venetian Harbor last time out in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag filled out the Exacta over this main track against Optional Claiming company (OC 80k N2L) last time out, and both Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag have been progressing well so far in their respective three year old campaigns.
Daphne Moon could improve going second off the layoff. Antoinette took the Show last time out in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Fantasy (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Venetian Harbor (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Swiss Skydiver (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lake Avenue (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harvey's Little Goil (ML 12-1)
# 10 British Idiom (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Ice Princess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Kansas Kis (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shedaresthedevil (ML 12-1)
# 8 Ring Leader (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lady Glamour (ML 50-1)
# 11 Fire Coral (ML 15-1)
# 12 New York Groove (ML 20-1)
# 13 Lazy Daisy (ML 20-1)
# 14 Alta's Award (ML 12-1)
Venetian Harbor, trained by Richard Baltas, won the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita last time out by as many as she wanted. Swiss Skydiver led the field all the way around the track last time out while winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks by open lengths.
Though she was convincingly defeated in the Gulfstream Park Oaks by Swiss Skydiver, I'm going to use Lake Avenue on the main ticket because I think Lake Avenue can improve off that effort. Harvey's Little Goil, trained by Bill Mott, seems to fit well with the contenders.
British Idiom was better than Swiss Skydiver by daylight in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra back in February. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Wholehearted (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Spend Spend Spend (ML 7-2)
# 8 La Chancla (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Sara Sea (ML 15-1)
# 5 Rahway (ML 30-1)
# 9 Profound Legacy (ML 30-1)
# 10 Unique Factor (ML 12-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Fugitive Lady (ML 30-1)
# 13 Stirred (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Miss Imperial (ML 4-1); # 2 Violation (ML 30-1); # 4 Full of Grace (ML 8-1); and # 14 Timely Tradition
Wholehearted, winner of the $50k Wilma Mankiller at Will Rodgers Downs last time out, has finished in the Trifecta in eight of her ten career starts at Oaklawn Park. Spend Spend Spend goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.
La Chancla, victorious by daylight the last time that she competed at today's distance, has been working well for Trainer Steve Asmussen in preparation for her 2020 debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 2,3,5,7,10 with 2,3,4,5,10 with 6,7,8 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 3 with 2 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,8,11,12 with 2 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 1,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 3,5,9,10,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $90.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
And so we arrive at the closing weekend for the meet at Hot Springs, with Friday's card featuring a trio of stakes, the most prominent being the Grade 3 Fantasy for three year old fillies. I'll be taking a look at all three contests below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 7 - [S] The Arkansas Breeders' Championship $165k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 K J's Nobility (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 10 Glacken's Ghost (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Promising Shoes (ML 5-1)
# 2 Souixper Charger (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hamazing Vision (ML 9-2)
# 5 Prospector Fever (ML 8-1)
# 6 J. E.'s Handmedown (ML 15-1)
# 7 Destiny Way (ML 20-1)
# 8 Heritage Park (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bandit Point (ML 10-1)
# 11 Man in the Can (ML 6-1)
K J's Nobility has won three of his last four contests, including an open length victory last time out in the $100k Nodouble Breeders' Stakes (which, like today's contest, was restricted to state bred entrants only). Glacken's Ghost, soundly defeated by K J's Nobility last time out, could turn the tables on that rival with the added distance. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gardenia $80k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gingham (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Piece of My Heart (ML 8-1)
# 5 Daphne Moon (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Flag (ML 9-2)
# 10 Antoinette (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Turnstone (ML 30-1)
# 8 Comical (ML 15-1)
# 11 His Glory (ML 8-1)
# 12 Shanghai Keely (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 1 Black Kat Taps (ML 30-1); # 6 Quick Decision (ML 12-1); # 9 Ice Princess (ML 10-1); # 13 Kiss the Girl (ML 30-1); and # 14 Punk Rock (ML 30-1)
Gingham took the Place behind Venetian Harbor last time out in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag filled out the Exacta over this main track against Optional Claiming company (OC 80k N2L) last time out, and both Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag have been progressing well so far in their respective three year old campaigns.
Daphne Moon could improve going second off the layoff. Antoinette took the Show last time out in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Fantasy (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Venetian Harbor (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Swiss Skydiver (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lake Avenue (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harvey's Little Goil (ML 12-1)
# 10 British Idiom (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Ice Princess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Kansas Kis (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shedaresthedevil (ML 12-1)
# 8 Ring Leader (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lady Glamour (ML 50-1)
# 11 Fire Coral (ML 15-1)
# 12 New York Groove (ML 20-1)
# 13 Lazy Daisy (ML 20-1)
# 14 Alta's Award (ML 12-1)
Venetian Harbor, trained by Richard Baltas, won the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita last time out by as many as she wanted. Swiss Skydiver led the field all the way around the track last time out while winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks by open lengths.
Though she was convincingly defeated in the Gulfstream Park Oaks by Swiss Skydiver, I'm going to use Lake Avenue on the main ticket because I think Lake Avenue can improve off that effort. Harvey's Little Goil, trained by Bill Mott, seems to fit well with the contenders.
British Idiom was better than Swiss Skydiver by daylight in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra back in February. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Wholehearted (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Spend Spend Spend (ML 7-2)
# 8 La Chancla (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Sara Sea (ML 15-1)
# 5 Rahway (ML 30-1)
# 9 Profound Legacy (ML 30-1)
# 10 Unique Factor (ML 12-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Fugitive Lady (ML 30-1)
# 13 Stirred (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Miss Imperial (ML 4-1); # 2 Violation (ML 30-1); # 4 Full of Grace (ML 8-1); and # 14 Timely Tradition
Wholehearted, winner of the $50k Wilma Mankiller at Will Rodgers Downs last time out, has finished in the Trifecta in eight of her ten career starts at Oaklawn Park. Spend Spend Spend goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.
La Chancla, victorious by daylight the last time that she competed at today's distance, has been working well for Trainer Steve Asmussen in preparation for her 2020 debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 2,3,5,7,10 with 2,3,4,5,10 with 6,7,8 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 3 with 2 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,8,11,12 with 2 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 1,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 3,5,9,10,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $90.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 25, 2020
4/25/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 4 Sneaking Out (Final Odds 1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Bachelor - # 9 Long Weekend (2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Carousel - # 8 Mia Mischief (1.50) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Violent Pass (25.90) - "C" Selection
My decision to spread in Saturday's two featured events proved to be a wise one, as neither # 7 Eight Rings (0.80*) in the Bachelor, nor # 1 Bellafina (1.40*) in the Carousel, was able to finish in the Trifecta in their respective contests. Unfortunately for me, being correct in those two legs wasn't good enough to make Saturday a day for me to collect instead of contribute; because, for the second week in a row, the victor in the nightcap was a runner not to be found on my main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 1 Copper King (3.90) - $117.50 Finish: 2nd
# 4 Unrighteous (0.70*) - $42.00 Finish: 4th
# 5 Belfast Boy (42.20) - $953.55 Finish: 5th
# 6 Aztec Empire (7.80) - $178.00 Finish: 8th
# 7 A. K. Safari (24.30) - $928.85 Finish: 12th
# 9 Ronamo (8.30) - $263.90 Finish: 3rd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 8 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $421.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Bachelor - # 9 Long Weekend (2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Carousel - # 8 Mia Mischief (1.50) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Violent Pass (25.90) - "C" Selection
My decision to spread in Saturday's two featured events proved to be a wise one, as neither # 7 Eight Rings (0.80*) in the Bachelor, nor # 1 Bellafina (1.40*) in the Carousel, was able to finish in the Trifecta in their respective contests. Unfortunately for me, being correct in those two legs wasn't good enough to make Saturday a day for me to collect instead of contribute; because, for the second week in a row, the victor in the nightcap was a runner not to be found on my main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 1 Copper King (3.90) - $117.50 Finish: 2nd
# 4 Unrighteous (0.70*) - $42.00 Finish: 4th
# 5 Belfast Boy (42.20) - $953.55 Finish: 5th
# 6 Aztec Empire (7.80) - $178.00 Finish: 8th
# 7 A. K. Safari (24.30) - $928.85 Finish: 12th
# 9 Ronamo (8.30) - $263.90 Finish: 3rd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 8 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $421.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/25/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” - Earl Nightingale
There's a pair of Listed Stakes on Saturday's card in Hot Springs; each six furlongs in length, both of which are scheduled to be run among the final four contests on the program. So with that as teaser let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Sneaking Out (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 8 Ready to Runaway (ML 8-1)
# 9 Bye Bye J (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Flat Out Speed (ML 12-1)
# 2 Lady of Luxury (ML 12-1)
# 5 Nomizar (ML 9-2)
# 6 On Deck (ML 10-1)
# 7 My Sister Madi (ML 20-1)
# 10 Beautiful Tale (ML 10-1)
# 11 Potra Liza (ML 20-1)
# 12 A. P. Princess (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Bootytama (ML 12-1) and # 13 Ilchester Cheetah (ML 9-2)
Sneaking Out makes her 2020 debut while returning to the barn of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with those coming off an extended vacation. Ready to Runaway may be outclassed here; but Ready to Runaway may also be quickest here, so she just might hold on until the wire.
Bye Bye J was victorious by daylight last time out in front of a trio of next out winners (Matapan, Georgia's Reward, and Dutch Treat). The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Bachelor $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Eight Rings (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Town (ML 9-2)
# 9 Long Weekend (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Little Menace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Lykan (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sir Rick (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Beau Oxy (ML 20-1); # 4 Ginobili (ML 6-1); and # 6 Liam's Pride (ML 20-1)
Eight Rings, making his 2020 debut for Trainer Bob Baffert, looks classiest here; and the bullet work on 4/17 suggests that Eight Rings will not have any problems handling this track. Which probably means that Eight Rings should be a single here; but I'm going to play it safe here by using Echo Town and Long Weekend on the main ticket as well, as both Echo Town and Long Weekend appear to be in good enough form that their chances should not be easily dismissed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - (F) The Carousel $125k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bellafina (ML 8-5)
B's
# 8 Mia Mischief (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Midnight Fantasy (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sunny Dale (ML 6-1)
# 4 What a Fox (ML 8-1)
# 5 Classy Act (ML 15-1)
# 6 Amy's Challenge (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Suebee (ML 20-1)
Bellafina, making her 2020 debut for Trainer Simon Callaghan, is clearly classiest here. So why isn't Bellafina a big ticket single? My main concern with Bellafina is that if she gets caught up in a hot pace, coming off the layoff, Bellafina may be vulnerable in the stretch. So, for that reason, I've slotted Mia Mischief in as a "B" Selection, because I think Mia Mischief could be the one running best late. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Unrighteous (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Copper King (ML 7-2)
# 5 Belfast Boy (ML 30-1)
# 6 Aztec Empire (ML 5-1)
# 7 A. K. Safari (ML 10-1)
# 9 Romano (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 All About Will (ML 12-1)
# 3 Violent Pass (ML 15-1)
# 8 Lookin High (ML 15-1)
# 10 Majestic Display (ML 20-1)
# 11 On d'Oro (ML 8-1)
# 12 Tiz the Journey (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Scale (ML 6-1) and # 14 Working Title
Unrighteous, trained by Todd Pletcher, was in over his head last time out in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and should appreciate the return to the maiden ranks. Copper King has finished in the Exacta at this class level in seven of his nine career starts; so Copper King can win at this class level; the question is, "Will he?"
Belfast Boy showed next to nothing in his debut last time out; but Belfast Boy has been working well in the AM, and Trainer Mike Puhich tends to do well with second time starters. Aztec Empire and A. K. Safari both took the Show (in separate contests) at this class level last time out.
Romano is moving up from the Maiden Claiming ranks; but Romano has performed well at this class level in the past, and Romano could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. In addition to playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I'm also going to play a ticket to press up the possibility of a Eight Rings / Bellafina Daily Double in the middle of the sequence. So with all that, I get:
Special Eight Rings / Bellafina Ticket
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 7 with 1 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $9.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 3,7,9 with 1,8 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 7 with 1 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5,8 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 2,3,8,10,11,12 $3.00
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
There's a pair of Listed Stakes on Saturday's card in Hot Springs; each six furlongs in length, both of which are scheduled to be run among the final four contests on the program. So with that as teaser let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Sneaking Out (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 8 Ready to Runaway (ML 8-1)
# 9 Bye Bye J (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Flat Out Speed (ML 12-1)
# 2 Lady of Luxury (ML 12-1)
# 5 Nomizar (ML 9-2)
# 6 On Deck (ML 10-1)
# 7 My Sister Madi (ML 20-1)
# 10 Beautiful Tale (ML 10-1)
# 11 Potra Liza (ML 20-1)
# 12 A. P. Princess (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Bootytama (ML 12-1) and # 13 Ilchester Cheetah (ML 9-2)
Sneaking Out makes her 2020 debut while returning to the barn of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with those coming off an extended vacation. Ready to Runaway may be outclassed here; but Ready to Runaway may also be quickest here, so she just might hold on until the wire.
Bye Bye J was victorious by daylight last time out in front of a trio of next out winners (Matapan, Georgia's Reward, and Dutch Treat). The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Bachelor $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Eight Rings (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Town (ML 9-2)
# 9 Long Weekend (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Little Menace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Lykan (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sir Rick (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Beau Oxy (ML 20-1); # 4 Ginobili (ML 6-1); and # 6 Liam's Pride (ML 20-1)
Eight Rings, making his 2020 debut for Trainer Bob Baffert, looks classiest here; and the bullet work on 4/17 suggests that Eight Rings will not have any problems handling this track. Which probably means that Eight Rings should be a single here; but I'm going to play it safe here by using Echo Town and Long Weekend on the main ticket as well, as both Echo Town and Long Weekend appear to be in good enough form that their chances should not be easily dismissed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - (F) The Carousel $125k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bellafina (ML 8-5)
B's
# 8 Mia Mischief (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Midnight Fantasy (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sunny Dale (ML 6-1)
# 4 What a Fox (ML 8-1)
# 5 Classy Act (ML 15-1)
# 6 Amy's Challenge (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Suebee (ML 20-1)
Bellafina, making her 2020 debut for Trainer Simon Callaghan, is clearly classiest here. So why isn't Bellafina a big ticket single? My main concern with Bellafina is that if she gets caught up in a hot pace, coming off the layoff, Bellafina may be vulnerable in the stretch. So, for that reason, I've slotted Mia Mischief in as a "B" Selection, because I think Mia Mischief could be the one running best late. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Unrighteous (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Copper King (ML 7-2)
# 5 Belfast Boy (ML 30-1)
# 6 Aztec Empire (ML 5-1)
# 7 A. K. Safari (ML 10-1)
# 9 Romano (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 All About Will (ML 12-1)
# 3 Violent Pass (ML 15-1)
# 8 Lookin High (ML 15-1)
# 10 Majestic Display (ML 20-1)
# 11 On d'Oro (ML 8-1)
# 12 Tiz the Journey (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Scale (ML 6-1) and # 14 Working Title
Unrighteous, trained by Todd Pletcher, was in over his head last time out in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and should appreciate the return to the maiden ranks. Copper King has finished in the Exacta at this class level in seven of his nine career starts; so Copper King can win at this class level; the question is, "Will he?"
Belfast Boy showed next to nothing in his debut last time out; but Belfast Boy has been working well in the AM, and Trainer Mike Puhich tends to do well with second time starters. Aztec Empire and A. K. Safari both took the Show (in separate contests) at this class level last time out.
Romano is moving up from the Maiden Claiming ranks; but Romano has performed well at this class level in the past, and Romano could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. In addition to playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I'm also going to play a ticket to press up the possibility of a Eight Rings / Bellafina Daily Double in the middle of the sequence. So with all that, I get:
Special Eight Rings / Bellafina Ticket
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 7 with 1 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $9.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 3,7,9 with 1,8 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 7 with 1 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5,8 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 2,3,8,10,11,12 $3.00
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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