Race 8 - # 7 Tacoflavoredkisses (Final Odds 1.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Yellow Ribbon - # 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (4.60) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Dr. Schivel (6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Noble Hearted (6.20) - "B" Selection
I had the right idea in trying to defeat the highly favored # 7 Beau Recall (1.20*) in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, though I very nearly did not have the right horse; as Bodhicitta (GB) had to win a very tight photo over # 3 Tonahutu (Ire) (11.30) in order to be declared the winner.
But that bit of drama aside, Saturday proved to be a good illustration of why I play my tickets in a modified Crist fashion, rather than punching my Pick Four tickets exactly as recommended by Crist in his book Exotic Betting. Playing multi-race wagers in pure Crist fashion requires getting at least two "A" Selections home in order to collect; as opposed to getting paid despite not having a single top pick cross under the wire first, as was the case for me on Saturday.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 6 Sweet Devil (2.90*) - $293.95 Finish: 8th
# 7 Dolci (89.60) - $9,941.20 Finish: 11th
# 9 Wind and Hope (20.40) - $871.20 Finish: 9th
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (7.20) - $454.55 Finish: 6th
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (3.40) - $342.95 Finish: 7th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 2 / 8 / 5 which paid $365.85 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $248.35 on my initial $117.50 investment; or approximate odds of 2.11-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 8, 2020
8/8/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
"Do you know what my favorite part of the game is? The opportunity to play.” - Mike Singletary
The Del Mar card contains a pair of Graded Stakes; one of which, the Grade 2 Best Pal, falls outside of this preview, occupying as it does Race 6 on the program. But the other, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, is a prominent part of the Late Pick Four, slotted into a rather interesting sequence where a Graded Stakes is joined by three maiden races. So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Big Flame (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 5 Crash Corrigan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tacoflavoredkisses (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Alexander's Dream (ML 4-1)
# 6 Suzie Qzz Brother (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charge Cash (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Ben's a Goalie (ML 12-1) and # 3 Lino's Back N Town (ML 6-1)
These are juveniles, with only one experienced runner, Tacoflavoredkisses, in the field. I'm making Big Flame my top selection because progeny of his sire, Mr. Big, have done well in their debuts.
Ben's a Goalie is trained by Quinn Howey, who tends to do well with first time starters. Crash Corrigan is a full brother to George Herman Ruth, who graduated at Santa Anita earlier this year.
As mentioned above, Tacoflavoredkisses is the only experienced entrant in this field. While Tacoflavoredkisses didn't show much in his debut last time out, despite being the Post Time Favorite, Trainer Simon Callaghan tends to do well with his runners who are making their second career start. Tacoflavoredkisses will also be adding blinkers for the first time, another angle with which Callaghan tends to be successful. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Keeper Ofthe Stars (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Summering (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tonahuta (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harmless (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Jolie Olimpica (Brz) (ML 5-2)
Virtually all the analysis that I've seen online regarding this contest has deemed it, with the scratch of Jolie Olimpica, a one-sided affair in which Beau Recall (Ire) should romp. Needless to say, I have a differing opinion.
Keeper Ofthe Stars and Bodhicitta (GB) filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Gamely back in May. Keeper Ofthe Stars looked like a very tired horse last time out in the Grade 3 Wilshire; hopefully the freshening will allow Keeper Ofthe Stars to return to form.
Lady Prancealot (Ire) was well beaten by Keeper Ofthe Stars in each of her last two outings. But Lady Prancealot (Ire) has run well in the past at Del Mar; so perhaps a change of scenery will allow her to move up today.
There's a non-zero chance that, sometime later this evening, I will be regretting not making Beau Recall, the winner of last year's running of this event, a big ticket single; let alone not making her my top pick. But I just don't think that the Brad Cox trained Beau Recall is in top form at this time. Granted, even when not in her best form, Beau Recall is still a great horse; but it's my opinion that, today, there are others in this field that have a legitimate shot at defeating her, and at more attractive prices. So that's how I'll be playing this leg, with all others in the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Spielberg (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Superman Shaq (ML 7-2)
# 8 Dr. Schivel (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Honorary Degree (ML 15-1)
# 2 Flactem Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 3 Noble Reflection (ML 3-1)
# 5 Waspirant (ML 8-1)
# 7 Feel the Berning (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 Drivehappy (ML 12-1)
More juveniles. Spielberg has been working well for his debut, as you would expect from a Bob Baffert trained runner. First time starter Superman Shaq, trained by Peter Miller, is out of Drumette, who also foaled Graded Stakes winners Mr. Monomoy and Monomoy Girl.
Dr. Schivel, the only experienced runner in this field, has finished in the Trifecta in both of his career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sweet Devil (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Noble Hearted (ML 6-1)
# 7 Dolci (ML 30-1)
# 9 Wind and Hope (ML 8-1)
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (ML 9-2)
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Miss Addie Pray (ML 20-1)
# 2 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 8-1)
# 3 Bristol Bayou (ML 12-1)
# 4 Frose (ML 20-1)
# 8 Viazar (ML 12-1)
# 12 Surround (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Sweet Devil ran well last time out over this turf course, and Sweet Devil could move up with the added real estate. Noble Hearted took the Show at this class level two starts back. Dolci is another that could move up with the increase in distance; likewise Wind and Hope.
Nurse Goodbody disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out in a race that should be tossed from consideration. Nurse Goodbody took the Place at this class level two starts back.
Ya Beauty (GB), making her North American debut today, took the Place last time out in her second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis; and, boy, is this play well over my usual budget. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2,4,6,7 with 4,8,9 with 5,6,7,9,10,11 $108.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,8 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,5 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,8,12 $3.00
Total: $117.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Del Mar card contains a pair of Graded Stakes; one of which, the Grade 2 Best Pal, falls outside of this preview, occupying as it does Race 6 on the program. But the other, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, is a prominent part of the Late Pick Four, slotted into a rather interesting sequence where a Graded Stakes is joined by three maiden races. So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Big Flame (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 5 Crash Corrigan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tacoflavoredkisses (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Alexander's Dream (ML 4-1)
# 6 Suzie Qzz Brother (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charge Cash (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Ben's a Goalie (ML 12-1) and # 3 Lino's Back N Town (ML 6-1)
These are juveniles, with only one experienced runner, Tacoflavoredkisses, in the field. I'm making Big Flame my top selection because progeny of his sire, Mr. Big, have done well in their debuts.
Ben's a Goalie is trained by Quinn Howey, who tends to do well with first time starters. Crash Corrigan is a full brother to George Herman Ruth, who graduated at Santa Anita earlier this year.
As mentioned above, Tacoflavoredkisses is the only experienced entrant in this field. While Tacoflavoredkisses didn't show much in his debut last time out, despite being the Post Time Favorite, Trainer Simon Callaghan tends to do well with his runners who are making their second career start. Tacoflavoredkisses will also be adding blinkers for the first time, another angle with which Callaghan tends to be successful. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Keeper Ofthe Stars (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Summering (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tonahuta (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harmless (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Jolie Olimpica (Brz) (ML 5-2)
Virtually all the analysis that I've seen online regarding this contest has deemed it, with the scratch of Jolie Olimpica, a one-sided affair in which Beau Recall (Ire) should romp. Needless to say, I have a differing opinion.
Keeper Ofthe Stars and Bodhicitta (GB) filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Gamely back in May. Keeper Ofthe Stars looked like a very tired horse last time out in the Grade 3 Wilshire; hopefully the freshening will allow Keeper Ofthe Stars to return to form.
Lady Prancealot (Ire) was well beaten by Keeper Ofthe Stars in each of her last two outings. But Lady Prancealot (Ire) has run well in the past at Del Mar; so perhaps a change of scenery will allow her to move up today.
There's a non-zero chance that, sometime later this evening, I will be regretting not making Beau Recall, the winner of last year's running of this event, a big ticket single; let alone not making her my top pick. But I just don't think that the Brad Cox trained Beau Recall is in top form at this time. Granted, even when not in her best form, Beau Recall is still a great horse; but it's my opinion that, today, there are others in this field that have a legitimate shot at defeating her, and at more attractive prices. So that's how I'll be playing this leg, with all others in the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Spielberg (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Superman Shaq (ML 7-2)
# 8 Dr. Schivel (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Honorary Degree (ML 15-1)
# 2 Flactem Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 3 Noble Reflection (ML 3-1)
# 5 Waspirant (ML 8-1)
# 7 Feel the Berning (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 Drivehappy (ML 12-1)
More juveniles. Spielberg has been working well for his debut, as you would expect from a Bob Baffert trained runner. First time starter Superman Shaq, trained by Peter Miller, is out of Drumette, who also foaled Graded Stakes winners Mr. Monomoy and Monomoy Girl.
Dr. Schivel, the only experienced runner in this field, has finished in the Trifecta in both of his career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sweet Devil (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Noble Hearted (ML 6-1)
# 7 Dolci (ML 30-1)
# 9 Wind and Hope (ML 8-1)
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (ML 9-2)
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Miss Addie Pray (ML 20-1)
# 2 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 8-1)
# 3 Bristol Bayou (ML 12-1)
# 4 Frose (ML 20-1)
# 8 Viazar (ML 12-1)
# 12 Surround (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Sweet Devil ran well last time out over this turf course, and Sweet Devil could move up with the added real estate. Noble Hearted took the Show at this class level two starts back. Dolci is another that could move up with the increase in distance; likewise Wind and Hope.
Nurse Goodbody disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out in a race that should be tossed from consideration. Nurse Goodbody took the Place at this class level two starts back.
Ya Beauty (GB), making her North American debut today, took the Place last time out in her second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis; and, boy, is this play well over my usual budget. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2,4,6,7 with 4,8,9 with 5,6,7,9,10,11 $108.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,8 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,5 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,8,12 $3.00
Total: $117.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 1, 2020
8/1/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The CTBA - # 2 Governor Goteven (Final Odds 3.40) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Del Mar Drama (3.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Bing Crosby - # 9 Collusion Illusion (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 9 On Mars (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Long story short, my single didn't get it done; as # 5 Tagline (1.20*), running in Race 9, finished well out of it, crossing under the wire eighth in a field of nine. Of course, such a result could have been overcome had I gotten one more "A" Selection home; but my top pick in the California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes, # 4 Righteously (3.90), finished next to last in her contest as well. So while getting two "A" Selections home to complete the sequence may create some positive momentum leading into next weekend, the bottom line is that this Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 9 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $178.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 8 Del Mar Drama (3.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Bing Crosby - # 9 Collusion Illusion (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 9 On Mars (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Long story short, my single didn't get it done; as # 5 Tagline (1.20*), running in Race 9, finished well out of it, crossing under the wire eighth in a field of nine. Of course, such a result could have been overcome had I gotten one more "A" Selection home; but my top pick in the California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes, # 4 Righteously (3.90), finished next to last in her contest as well. So while getting two "A" Selections home to complete the sequence may create some positive momentum leading into next weekend, the bottom line is that this Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 9 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $178.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/1/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” - Thomas Edison
The Grade 1 Bing Crosby is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar; a contest which required reassessment Friday with the announcement by Trainer Bob Baffert that he was withdrawing Morning Line Favorite McKinzie, with the intent of re-entering McKinzie in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien four weeks hence. So with that as background let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] The CTBA $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Righteously (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 1 Big Andy (ML 5-1)
# 2 Governor Goteven (ML 5-1)
# 3 Reign of Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Jasmine Chieftain (ML 15-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 6 Love Wins (ML 4-1) and # 7 I'm So Anna (ML 8-5)
Like the Grade 1 Bing Crosby later on the card, this event, a stakes for two year old California bred fillies (full name California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes), also sees the scratch of its Morning Line Favorite; and, you know, I'm just not going to mess with it. Everybody into the pool! Righteously, as the only entrant with a win over this main track, is my top pick; with all others also being given a spot on the main ticket. So no matter what happens, the big ticket plays going into the second leg.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Tagline (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Little Rachel (ML 5-1)
# 2 Naughty Evelyn (ML 6-1)
# 3 I Give Up (ML 12-1)
# 4 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Better With Age (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lookin So Lucky (ML 20-1)
# 8 Del Mar Drama (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wild Arch (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 10 Star of Africa (ML 8-1); # 11 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 5-1); # 12 Rowangoeshollywood (ML 8-1); # 13 M Fast (ML 20-1); and # 14 Constantia (ML 6-1)
In my opinion, the top contenders for this contest were to be found among the Also Eligibles. But with the elimination of those runners, Tagline is a clear standout here. Mind you, that doesn't guarantee victory; but I see no point in trying to beat Tagline. So one leg after going ALL I'm going solo, with Tagline alone on the main ticket, and all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Collusion Illusion (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-1)
# 3 Desert Law (ML 5-1)
# 6 Fashionably Fast (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Lexitonian (ML 6-1)
# 7 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 8-1)
# 8 Wildman Jack (ML 6-1)
# 10 Heartwood (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 McKinzie (ML 2-1) and # 5 P R Radio Star (ML 8-1)
As mentioned in the intro, Trainer Bob Baffet's decision to scratch McKinzie and give him another month's rest changes the whole complexion of this contest. Collusion Illusion, two-for-two lifetime over this track, and undefeated in one-turn races, projects to get a nice outside stalking trip.
Anyportinastorm looks to be the speed of the speed here, and could prove to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Desert Law missed by just half a length of winning last year's running of this event. Fashionably Fast was runner-up to McKenzie last time out in the Grade 2 Triple Bend; a result which ended a six race winning streak for the Dean Pederson trained Fashionably Fast. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 On Mars (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Ride Sally Ride (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bella Chica (ML 7-2)
# 6 Get'em Tiger (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Cheerful Charm (ML 5-1)
# 2 Nina En Fuego (ML 6-1)
# 4 Starship Sky (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kiss of Congrats (ML 12-1)
# 8 Spanish Channel (ML 20-1)
# 10 Shez Our Arch (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 La Gata Elegante (ML 6-1)
On Mars has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in each of her last two starts; not a trend that you like to see. But On Mars did finish in the Trifecta in each of those two contests, and looks to once again be the one beat.
Ride Sally Ride has proven to be competitive at this class level, and Ride Sally Ride acquitted herself well in her one prior turf try around two turns. Bella Chica could improve in her first try around two turns. Bella Chica is also putting on the blinkers for the first time; Trainer Mike Puype tends to do well with that particular move.
Get'em Tiger might improve trying the turf for the first time. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 5 with 2,3,6,9 with 3,5,6,9 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 9 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 1,7,8,10 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 1,2,4,7,8,10 $3.00
Total: $50.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Grade 1 Bing Crosby is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar; a contest which required reassessment Friday with the announcement by Trainer Bob Baffert that he was withdrawing Morning Line Favorite McKinzie, with the intent of re-entering McKinzie in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien four weeks hence. So with that as background let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] The CTBA $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Righteously (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 1 Big Andy (ML 5-1)
# 2 Governor Goteven (ML 5-1)
# 3 Reign of Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Jasmine Chieftain (ML 15-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 6 Love Wins (ML 4-1) and # 7 I'm So Anna (ML 8-5)
Like the Grade 1 Bing Crosby later on the card, this event, a stakes for two year old California bred fillies (full name California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes), also sees the scratch of its Morning Line Favorite; and, you know, I'm just not going to mess with it. Everybody into the pool! Righteously, as the only entrant with a win over this main track, is my top pick; with all others also being given a spot on the main ticket. So no matter what happens, the big ticket plays going into the second leg.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Tagline (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Little Rachel (ML 5-1)
# 2 Naughty Evelyn (ML 6-1)
# 3 I Give Up (ML 12-1)
# 4 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Better With Age (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lookin So Lucky (ML 20-1)
# 8 Del Mar Drama (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wild Arch (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 10 Star of Africa (ML 8-1); # 11 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 5-1); # 12 Rowangoeshollywood (ML 8-1); # 13 M Fast (ML 20-1); and # 14 Constantia (ML 6-1)
In my opinion, the top contenders for this contest were to be found among the Also Eligibles. But with the elimination of those runners, Tagline is a clear standout here. Mind you, that doesn't guarantee victory; but I see no point in trying to beat Tagline. So one leg after going ALL I'm going solo, with Tagline alone on the main ticket, and all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Collusion Illusion (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-1)
# 3 Desert Law (ML 5-1)
# 6 Fashionably Fast (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Lexitonian (ML 6-1)
# 7 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 8-1)
# 8 Wildman Jack (ML 6-1)
# 10 Heartwood (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 McKinzie (ML 2-1) and # 5 P R Radio Star (ML 8-1)
As mentioned in the intro, Trainer Bob Baffet's decision to scratch McKinzie and give him another month's rest changes the whole complexion of this contest. Collusion Illusion, two-for-two lifetime over this track, and undefeated in one-turn races, projects to get a nice outside stalking trip.
Anyportinastorm looks to be the speed of the speed here, and could prove to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Desert Law missed by just half a length of winning last year's running of this event. Fashionably Fast was runner-up to McKenzie last time out in the Grade 2 Triple Bend; a result which ended a six race winning streak for the Dean Pederson trained Fashionably Fast. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 On Mars (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Ride Sally Ride (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bella Chica (ML 7-2)
# 6 Get'em Tiger (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Cheerful Charm (ML 5-1)
# 2 Nina En Fuego (ML 6-1)
# 4 Starship Sky (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kiss of Congrats (ML 12-1)
# 8 Spanish Channel (ML 20-1)
# 10 Shez Our Arch (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 La Gata Elegante (ML 6-1)
On Mars has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in each of her last two starts; not a trend that you like to see. But On Mars did finish in the Trifecta in each of those two contests, and looks to once again be the one beat.
Ride Sally Ride has proven to be competitive at this class level, and Ride Sally Ride acquitted herself well in her one prior turf try around two turns. Bella Chica could improve in her first try around two turns. Bella Chica is also putting on the blinkers for the first time; Trainer Mike Puype tends to do well with that particular move.
Get'em Tiger might improve trying the turf for the first time. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 5 with 2,3,6,9 with 3,5,6,9 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 9 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 1,7,8,10 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 1,2,4,7,8,10 $3.00
Total: $50.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, July 25, 2020
7/25/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 10 Zimba Warrior (Final Odds 2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The San Clemente - # 3 Laura's Light (1.20*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The San Diego - # 5 Maximum Security (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 8 Sassyserb (2.00*) - "B" Selection
It was a "Chalk 'em up" afternoon Saturday at Del Mar, as the Post Time Favorite was victorious in six of the eleven contests on the card, including each of the final four races. Much better for me would have been had # 6 Midcourt (6.00) won the photo over Maximum Security in the San Diego. But you can't win 'em all when it comes to photos; because if you did, that would be..........actually, that would be rather heavenly; wouldn't it?
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 2 Nice Ice (3.50) - $51.40 Finish: 2nd
# 3 Peace Pipe (13.40) - $116.35 Finish: 6th
# 4 Nocherylikemychery (22.10) - $246.35 Finish: 10th
# 12 Warrior's Moon (12.70) - $126.20 Finish: 7th
# 13 Charmingslew (13.80) - $145.40 Finish: 9th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 10 / 3 / 5 / 8 which paid $38.75 for a fifty cent wager; an amount which is considerably less than my initial investment of $70. And while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The San Clemente - # 3 Laura's Light (1.20*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The San Diego - # 5 Maximum Security (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 8 Sassyserb (2.00*) - "B" Selection
It was a "Chalk 'em up" afternoon Saturday at Del Mar, as the Post Time Favorite was victorious in six of the eleven contests on the card, including each of the final four races. Much better for me would have been had # 6 Midcourt (6.00) won the photo over Maximum Security in the San Diego. But you can't win 'em all when it comes to photos; because if you did, that would be..........actually, that would be rather heavenly; wouldn't it?
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 2 Nice Ice (3.50) - $51.40 Finish: 2nd
# 3 Peace Pipe (13.40) - $116.35 Finish: 6th
# 4 Nocherylikemychery (22.10) - $246.35 Finish: 10th
# 12 Warrior's Moon (12.70) - $126.20 Finish: 7th
# 13 Charmingslew (13.80) - $145.40 Finish: 9th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 10 / 3 / 5 / 8 which paid $38.75 for a fifty cent wager; an amount which is considerably less than my initial investment of $70. And while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/25/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” - Will Rogers
Racing returns to Del Mar this weekend, with a Saturday card that features a pair of Graded Stakes. I'll be taking a look at those two events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Zimba Warrior (Morning Line 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Itsthattime (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Handsome Cat (ML 4-1)
# 3 Hidden Promise (ML 7-2)
# 4 Octopus (ML 8-1)
# 6 Promise Nothing (ML 12-1)
# 8 Final Final (ML 20-1)
# 9 Drippin Sauce (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 5 Agamemnon (ML 15-1) and # 7 Antithetical (ML 10-1)
Zimba Warrior should benefit greatly from the class relief, as well as the return to the main track. Itsthattime is another that could move up with the class drop. Itsthattime should also improve with the return to one turn racing. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The San Clemente (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Warren's Showtime (ML 7-2)
B's
# 3 Laura's Light (ML 3-1)
# 4 Over Attracted (ML 15-1)
# 6 Cheermeister (ML 6-1)
# 7 Little Bird (Ire) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 She's So Special (ML 5-1)
# 2 Lazy Dazy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Croughavouke (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Guitty (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Applecross (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Mind Out (ML 15-1)
Most of Warren's Showtime's successes have come against Cal-bred company; but Warren's Showtime also has a pair of Listed Stakes victories, suggesting that she can handle the likes of this field.
Laura's Light, winner of Grade 3 Honeymoon last time out, can win from anywhere on the track. Over Attracted could improve going second off the layoff.
Expect Cheermeister, a two-time Graded Stakes winner at Gulfstream Park, to be forwardly placed early. The freshening may help Little Bird (Ire) show more today than she did last time out in the China Doll. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The San Diego (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Maximum Security (ML 1-1)
B's
# 6 Midcourt (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Higher Power (ML 7-2)
# 2 Ax Man (ML 8-1)
# 4 Combatant (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Sharp Samurai (ML 12-1)
Maximum Security, previously trained by Jason Servis, is making his first start for Trainer Bob Baffert. While it's fair to presume that Maximum Security won't be the same horse that he was, it's also fair to presume that Baffert wouldn't be putting Maximum Security in this spot if Baffert didn't think that Maximum Security was up to the task.
Expect Midcourt to be much improved over his last time out, now that the one race blinkers off experiment is done. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Nocherylikemychery (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 2 Nice Ice (ML 7-2)
# 3 Peace Pipe (ML 20-1)
# 8 Sassyserb (ML 8-1)
# 12 Warrior's Moon (ML 8-1)
# 13 Charmingslew (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Oh Pretty Woman (ML 9-2)
# 6 Smiling Rose (ML 10-1)
# 7 Kristi's Tiger (ML 12-1)
# 11 Magnificent Q T (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 5 Goodtingscominpink (ML 6-1); # 9 Hot On the Trail (ML 15-1); # 10 Harper's Gallop (ML 8-1); and # 14 Ruby Bradley (ML 20-1)
Nocherylikemychery and Warrior's Moon filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Nice Ice could move up with the drop in class.
Peace Pipe graduated last time out in her first start for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well when placing his last out maiden victors. Sassyserb, also trained by Baltas, could improve with the cutback in real estate.
Charmingslew was a winner at this class level the last time that she competed on the turf. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 9 with 5 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,10 with 3,4,6,7,9 with 5,6 with 2,3,4,8,12,13 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,6,8,9 with 9 with 5 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,2,5,10,11 with 5 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 1,2,4 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 5 with 1,6,7,11 $2.00
Total: $70.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Racing returns to Del Mar this weekend, with a Saturday card that features a pair of Graded Stakes. I'll be taking a look at those two events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Zimba Warrior (Morning Line 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Itsthattime (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Handsome Cat (ML 4-1)
# 3 Hidden Promise (ML 7-2)
# 4 Octopus (ML 8-1)
# 6 Promise Nothing (ML 12-1)
# 8 Final Final (ML 20-1)
# 9 Drippin Sauce (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 5 Agamemnon (ML 15-1) and # 7 Antithetical (ML 10-1)
Zimba Warrior should benefit greatly from the class relief, as well as the return to the main track. Itsthattime is another that could move up with the class drop. Itsthattime should also improve with the return to one turn racing. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The San Clemente (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Warren's Showtime (ML 7-2)
B's
# 3 Laura's Light (ML 3-1)
# 4 Over Attracted (ML 15-1)
# 6 Cheermeister (ML 6-1)
# 7 Little Bird (Ire) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 She's So Special (ML 5-1)
# 2 Lazy Dazy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Croughavouke (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Guitty (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Applecross (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Mind Out (ML 15-1)
Most of Warren's Showtime's successes have come against Cal-bred company; but Warren's Showtime also has a pair of Listed Stakes victories, suggesting that she can handle the likes of this field.
Laura's Light, winner of Grade 3 Honeymoon last time out, can win from anywhere on the track. Over Attracted could improve going second off the layoff.
Expect Cheermeister, a two-time Graded Stakes winner at Gulfstream Park, to be forwardly placed early. The freshening may help Little Bird (Ire) show more today than she did last time out in the China Doll. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The San Diego (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Maximum Security (ML 1-1)
B's
# 6 Midcourt (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Higher Power (ML 7-2)
# 2 Ax Man (ML 8-1)
# 4 Combatant (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Sharp Samurai (ML 12-1)
Maximum Security, previously trained by Jason Servis, is making his first start for Trainer Bob Baffert. While it's fair to presume that Maximum Security won't be the same horse that he was, it's also fair to presume that Baffert wouldn't be putting Maximum Security in this spot if Baffert didn't think that Maximum Security was up to the task.
Expect Midcourt to be much improved over his last time out, now that the one race blinkers off experiment is done. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Nocherylikemychery (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 2 Nice Ice (ML 7-2)
# 3 Peace Pipe (ML 20-1)
# 8 Sassyserb (ML 8-1)
# 12 Warrior's Moon (ML 8-1)
# 13 Charmingslew (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Oh Pretty Woman (ML 9-2)
# 6 Smiling Rose (ML 10-1)
# 7 Kristi's Tiger (ML 12-1)
# 11 Magnificent Q T (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 5 Goodtingscominpink (ML 6-1); # 9 Hot On the Trail (ML 15-1); # 10 Harper's Gallop (ML 8-1); and # 14 Ruby Bradley (ML 20-1)
Nocherylikemychery and Warrior's Moon filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Nice Ice could move up with the drop in class.
Peace Pipe graduated last time out in her first start for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well when placing his last out maiden victors. Sassyserb, also trained by Baltas, could improve with the cutback in real estate.
Charmingslew was a winner at this class level the last time that she competed on the turf. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 9 with 5 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,10 with 3,4,6,7,9 with 5,6 with 2,3,4,8,12,13 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,6,8,9 with 9 with 5 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,2,5,10,11 with 5 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 1,2,4 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 5 with 1,6,7,11 $2.00
Total: $70.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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