Race 8 - # 5 Forest Caraway (Final Odds 11.90) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Solana Beach - # 5 Pulpit Rider (11.40) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Pyron (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Mithqaal (8.00) - "B" Selection
Leaving Solana Beach winner Pulpit Rider off the main ticket was an undeniable error. Pulpit Rider was coming off a strong third place finish against open company over this turf course; additionally, Pulpit Rider was going third off the layoff for Trainer Mike Puype, who tends to do well with such. But looking objectively at the first leg of the sequence, I don't see how I can get Forest Caraway onto the main ticket without going at least six deep in that nine horse field. So even if I had played the Solana Beach correctly, Saturday was most likely still going to be a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 5 / 6 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $1,668.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 15, 2020
8/15/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
"Don't worry about failures, worry about the chances you miss when you don't even try." - Jack Canfield
The Solana Beach, a turf contest for California bred fillies and mares, is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Illumination (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 Kalypso (ML 6-1)
# 2 Park Avenue (ML 3-1)
# 9 Mandragora Seeker (ML 10-1)
C's
# 3 Isn't She Lovely (ML 4-1)
# 5 Forest Caraway (ML 12-1)
# 6 Derby Quest (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shvere Arbeter (ML 10-1)
# 8 I'm All the Jedi (ML 20-1)
These are juveniles, with Mandragora Seeker the only experienced runner in the field. Illumination and Kalypso are both trained by Bob Baffert, whose debut runners tend to be successful. Park Avenue is trained by John Sadler, who often does well with his first time starters.
As mentioned above, Mandragora Seeker is the only runner here with a race under her belt; and, quite frankly, Mandragora Seeker didn't show much in her debut last time out. But Mandragora Seeker is trained by Luis Mendez, whose runners tend to improve significantly in their second career tries. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Solana Beach $125k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Cordiality (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Mucho Unusual (ML 8-5)
C's
# 1 Sedamar (ML 5-1)
# 5 Pulpit Rider (ML 6-1)
# 7 Kitty Boom Boom (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Big Sweep (ML 5-1) and # 6 Smiling Shirlee (ML 12-1)
Cordiality, winner of this event a couple of years ago, appears to be back in top form. Mucho Unusual is getting significant class relief here. Mucho Unusual is also getting the services of Jockey Flavien Prat, who was victorious the last time that he rode Mucho Unusual. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - Alw 50000s N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Pyron (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Zimba Warrior (ML 3-1)
# 3 It's Tiz Time (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tobacco Road (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Press Briefing (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cause and Effect (ML 20-1)
# 7 Emerald Magic (ML 12-1)
# 8 Little Sydney (ML 6-1)
# 9 Luck's Royal Flush (ML 20-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career. Each of these entrants has two career victories, with the exception of the Doug O'Neill trained Press Briefing, who has only visited the Winner's Circle once.
Pyron ships in from Kentucky, going first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt. The competition for Pyron in this field appears somewhat lighter than that which he has been facing of late.
Zimba Warrior ran well while winning over this main track last time out, albeit for different connections. It's Tiz Time fits well here with the contenders, and could be the one running best late.
Tobacco Road ran well in his first try over this main track last time out, which was also Tobacco Road's first start for Trainer Kristin Mulhall, who has been having a fine 2020 campaign. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Contagion (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Mr. Roary (ML 6-1)
# 5 The Hunted (ML 3-1)
# 6 Mithqaal (ML 6-1)
# 7 Acker (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Ocean Fury (ML 12-1)
# 3 Pubilius Syrus (ML 12-1)
# 4 Dynamite Ride (ML 8-1)
# 8 Move Over (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Never Easy (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 10 Harvest a Storm (ML 20-1) along with all three Also Eligibles: # 11 East Rand (ML 12-1); # 12 Avalanche (ML 4-1); and # 13 Engram (ML 30-1)
This contest is for runners three year olds and upward that have not won a race in 2020; no exclusions (in other words, "other than etc. etc.").
The Solana Beach, a turf contest for California bred fillies and mares, is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Illumination (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 Kalypso (ML 6-1)
# 2 Park Avenue (ML 3-1)
# 9 Mandragora Seeker (ML 10-1)
C's
# 3 Isn't She Lovely (ML 4-1)
# 5 Forest Caraway (ML 12-1)
# 6 Derby Quest (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shvere Arbeter (ML 10-1)
# 8 I'm All the Jedi (ML 20-1)
These are juveniles, with Mandragora Seeker the only experienced runner in the field. Illumination and Kalypso are both trained by Bob Baffert, whose debut runners tend to be successful. Park Avenue is trained by John Sadler, who often does well with his first time starters.
As mentioned above, Mandragora Seeker is the only runner here with a race under her belt; and, quite frankly, Mandragora Seeker didn't show much in her debut last time out. But Mandragora Seeker is trained by Luis Mendez, whose runners tend to improve significantly in their second career tries. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Solana Beach $125k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Cordiality (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Mucho Unusual (ML 8-5)
C's
# 1 Sedamar (ML 5-1)
# 5 Pulpit Rider (ML 6-1)
# 7 Kitty Boom Boom (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Big Sweep (ML 5-1) and # 6 Smiling Shirlee (ML 12-1)
Cordiality, winner of this event a couple of years ago, appears to be back in top form. Mucho Unusual is getting significant class relief here. Mucho Unusual is also getting the services of Jockey Flavien Prat, who was victorious the last time that he rode Mucho Unusual. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - Alw 50000s N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Pyron (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Zimba Warrior (ML 3-1)
# 3 It's Tiz Time (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tobacco Road (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Press Briefing (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cause and Effect (ML 20-1)
# 7 Emerald Magic (ML 12-1)
# 8 Little Sydney (ML 6-1)
# 9 Luck's Royal Flush (ML 20-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career. Each of these entrants has two career victories, with the exception of the Doug O'Neill trained Press Briefing, who has only visited the Winner's Circle once.
Pyron ships in from Kentucky, going first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt. The competition for Pyron in this field appears somewhat lighter than that which he has been facing of late.
Zimba Warrior ran well while winning over this main track last time out, albeit for different connections. It's Tiz Time fits well here with the contenders, and could be the one running best late.
Tobacco Road ran well in his first try over this main track last time out, which was also Tobacco Road's first start for Trainer Kristin Mulhall, who has been having a fine 2020 campaign. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Contagion (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Mr. Roary (ML 6-1)
# 5 The Hunted (ML 3-1)
# 6 Mithqaal (ML 6-1)
# 7 Acker (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Ocean Fury (ML 12-1)
# 3 Pubilius Syrus (ML 12-1)
# 4 Dynamite Ride (ML 8-1)
# 8 Move Over (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Never Easy (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 10 Harvest a Storm (ML 20-1) along with all three Also Eligibles: # 11 East Rand (ML 12-1); # 12 Avalanche (ML 4-1); and # 13 Engram (ML 30-1)
This contest is for runners three year olds and upward that have not won a race in 2020; no exclusions (in other words, "other than etc. etc.").
Contagion has finished in the Exacta in both of his career starts over this turf course, and Contagion is the only runner in this field to have finished in the Trifecta last time out. Mr. Roary looks to be the most consistent entrant in this field, and Mr. Roary could be the one running best late.
The Hunted can be expected to improve with the added distance. Mithqaal, shipping in from upstate for Trainer Jonathan Wong, has run well in the past over this turf course. Acker could move up with the return to grass. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 6 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,9 with 2,4 with 1,3,5,6 with 1,4,5,6,7 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 6 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5,7 with 6 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 2,4,7,8,9 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 6 with 2,3,8,9 $2.00
Total: $89.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:42 EDT / 5:42 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 8, 2020
8/8/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 7 Tacoflavoredkisses (Final Odds 1.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Yellow Ribbon - # 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (4.60) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Dr. Schivel (6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Noble Hearted (6.20) - "B" Selection
I had the right idea in trying to defeat the highly favored # 7 Beau Recall (1.20*) in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, though I very nearly did not have the right horse; as Bodhicitta (GB) had to win a very tight photo over # 3 Tonahutu (Ire) (11.30) in order to be declared the winner.
But that bit of drama aside, Saturday proved to be a good illustration of why I play my tickets in a modified Crist fashion, rather than punching my Pick Four tickets exactly as recommended by Crist in his book Exotic Betting. Playing multi-race wagers in pure Crist fashion requires getting at least two "A" Selections home in order to collect; as opposed to getting paid despite not having a single top pick cross under the wire first, as was the case for me on Saturday.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 6 Sweet Devil (2.90*) - $293.95 Finish: 8th
# 7 Dolci (89.60) - $9,941.20 Finish: 11th
# 9 Wind and Hope (20.40) - $871.20 Finish: 9th
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (7.20) - $454.55 Finish: 6th
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (3.40) - $342.95 Finish: 7th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 2 / 8 / 5 which paid $365.85 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $248.35 on my initial $117.50 investment; or approximate odds of 2.11-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Yellow Ribbon - # 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (4.60) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Dr. Schivel (6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Noble Hearted (6.20) - "B" Selection
I had the right idea in trying to defeat the highly favored # 7 Beau Recall (1.20*) in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, though I very nearly did not have the right horse; as Bodhicitta (GB) had to win a very tight photo over # 3 Tonahutu (Ire) (11.30) in order to be declared the winner.
But that bit of drama aside, Saturday proved to be a good illustration of why I play my tickets in a modified Crist fashion, rather than punching my Pick Four tickets exactly as recommended by Crist in his book Exotic Betting. Playing multi-race wagers in pure Crist fashion requires getting at least two "A" Selections home in order to collect; as opposed to getting paid despite not having a single top pick cross under the wire first, as was the case for me on Saturday.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 6 Sweet Devil (2.90*) - $293.95 Finish: 8th
# 7 Dolci (89.60) - $9,941.20 Finish: 11th
# 9 Wind and Hope (20.40) - $871.20 Finish: 9th
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (7.20) - $454.55 Finish: 6th
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (3.40) - $342.95 Finish: 7th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 2 / 8 / 5 which paid $365.85 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $248.35 on my initial $117.50 investment; or approximate odds of 2.11-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/8/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
"Do you know what my favorite part of the game is? The opportunity to play.” - Mike Singletary
The Del Mar card contains a pair of Graded Stakes; one of which, the Grade 2 Best Pal, falls outside of this preview, occupying as it does Race 6 on the program. But the other, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, is a prominent part of the Late Pick Four, slotted into a rather interesting sequence where a Graded Stakes is joined by three maiden races. So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Big Flame (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 5 Crash Corrigan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tacoflavoredkisses (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Alexander's Dream (ML 4-1)
# 6 Suzie Qzz Brother (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charge Cash (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Ben's a Goalie (ML 12-1) and # 3 Lino's Back N Town (ML 6-1)
These are juveniles, with only one experienced runner, Tacoflavoredkisses, in the field. I'm making Big Flame my top selection because progeny of his sire, Mr. Big, have done well in their debuts.
Ben's a Goalie is trained by Quinn Howey, who tends to do well with first time starters. Crash Corrigan is a full brother to George Herman Ruth, who graduated at Santa Anita earlier this year.
As mentioned above, Tacoflavoredkisses is the only experienced entrant in this field. While Tacoflavoredkisses didn't show much in his debut last time out, despite being the Post Time Favorite, Trainer Simon Callaghan tends to do well with his runners who are making their second career start. Tacoflavoredkisses will also be adding blinkers for the first time, another angle with which Callaghan tends to be successful. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Keeper Ofthe Stars (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Summering (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tonahuta (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harmless (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Jolie Olimpica (Brz) (ML 5-2)
Virtually all the analysis that I've seen online regarding this contest has deemed it, with the scratch of Jolie Olimpica, a one-sided affair in which Beau Recall (Ire) should romp. Needless to say, I have a differing opinion.
Keeper Ofthe Stars and Bodhicitta (GB) filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Gamely back in May. Keeper Ofthe Stars looked like a very tired horse last time out in the Grade 3 Wilshire; hopefully the freshening will allow Keeper Ofthe Stars to return to form.
Lady Prancealot (Ire) was well beaten by Keeper Ofthe Stars in each of her last two outings. But Lady Prancealot (Ire) has run well in the past at Del Mar; so perhaps a change of scenery will allow her to move up today.
There's a non-zero chance that, sometime later this evening, I will be regretting not making Beau Recall, the winner of last year's running of this event, a big ticket single; let alone not making her my top pick. But I just don't think that the Brad Cox trained Beau Recall is in top form at this time. Granted, even when not in her best form, Beau Recall is still a great horse; but it's my opinion that, today, there are others in this field that have a legitimate shot at defeating her, and at more attractive prices. So that's how I'll be playing this leg, with all others in the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Spielberg (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Superman Shaq (ML 7-2)
# 8 Dr. Schivel (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Honorary Degree (ML 15-1)
# 2 Flactem Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 3 Noble Reflection (ML 3-1)
# 5 Waspirant (ML 8-1)
# 7 Feel the Berning (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 Drivehappy (ML 12-1)
More juveniles. Spielberg has been working well for his debut, as you would expect from a Bob Baffert trained runner. First time starter Superman Shaq, trained by Peter Miller, is out of Drumette, who also foaled Graded Stakes winners Mr. Monomoy and Monomoy Girl.
Dr. Schivel, the only experienced runner in this field, has finished in the Trifecta in both of his career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sweet Devil (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Noble Hearted (ML 6-1)
# 7 Dolci (ML 30-1)
# 9 Wind and Hope (ML 8-1)
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (ML 9-2)
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Miss Addie Pray (ML 20-1)
# 2 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 8-1)
# 3 Bristol Bayou (ML 12-1)
# 4 Frose (ML 20-1)
# 8 Viazar (ML 12-1)
# 12 Surround (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Sweet Devil ran well last time out over this turf course, and Sweet Devil could move up with the added real estate. Noble Hearted took the Show at this class level two starts back. Dolci is another that could move up with the increase in distance; likewise Wind and Hope.
Nurse Goodbody disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out in a race that should be tossed from consideration. Nurse Goodbody took the Place at this class level two starts back.
Ya Beauty (GB), making her North American debut today, took the Place last time out in her second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis; and, boy, is this play well over my usual budget. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2,4,6,7 with 4,8,9 with 5,6,7,9,10,11 $108.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,8 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,5 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,8,12 $3.00
Total: $117.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Del Mar card contains a pair of Graded Stakes; one of which, the Grade 2 Best Pal, falls outside of this preview, occupying as it does Race 6 on the program. But the other, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, is a prominent part of the Late Pick Four, slotted into a rather interesting sequence where a Graded Stakes is joined by three maiden races. So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Big Flame (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 5 Crash Corrigan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tacoflavoredkisses (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Alexander's Dream (ML 4-1)
# 6 Suzie Qzz Brother (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charge Cash (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Ben's a Goalie (ML 12-1) and # 3 Lino's Back N Town (ML 6-1)
These are juveniles, with only one experienced runner, Tacoflavoredkisses, in the field. I'm making Big Flame my top selection because progeny of his sire, Mr. Big, have done well in their debuts.
Ben's a Goalie is trained by Quinn Howey, who tends to do well with first time starters. Crash Corrigan is a full brother to George Herman Ruth, who graduated at Santa Anita earlier this year.
As mentioned above, Tacoflavoredkisses is the only experienced entrant in this field. While Tacoflavoredkisses didn't show much in his debut last time out, despite being the Post Time Favorite, Trainer Simon Callaghan tends to do well with his runners who are making their second career start. Tacoflavoredkisses will also be adding blinkers for the first time, another angle with which Callaghan tends to be successful. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Keeper Ofthe Stars (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Summering (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tonahuta (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harmless (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Jolie Olimpica (Brz) (ML 5-2)
Virtually all the analysis that I've seen online regarding this contest has deemed it, with the scratch of Jolie Olimpica, a one-sided affair in which Beau Recall (Ire) should romp. Needless to say, I have a differing opinion.
Keeper Ofthe Stars and Bodhicitta (GB) filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Gamely back in May. Keeper Ofthe Stars looked like a very tired horse last time out in the Grade 3 Wilshire; hopefully the freshening will allow Keeper Ofthe Stars to return to form.
Lady Prancealot (Ire) was well beaten by Keeper Ofthe Stars in each of her last two outings. But Lady Prancealot (Ire) has run well in the past at Del Mar; so perhaps a change of scenery will allow her to move up today.
There's a non-zero chance that, sometime later this evening, I will be regretting not making Beau Recall, the winner of last year's running of this event, a big ticket single; let alone not making her my top pick. But I just don't think that the Brad Cox trained Beau Recall is in top form at this time. Granted, even when not in her best form, Beau Recall is still a great horse; but it's my opinion that, today, there are others in this field that have a legitimate shot at defeating her, and at more attractive prices. So that's how I'll be playing this leg, with all others in the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Spielberg (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Superman Shaq (ML 7-2)
# 8 Dr. Schivel (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Honorary Degree (ML 15-1)
# 2 Flactem Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 3 Noble Reflection (ML 3-1)
# 5 Waspirant (ML 8-1)
# 7 Feel the Berning (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 Drivehappy (ML 12-1)
More juveniles. Spielberg has been working well for his debut, as you would expect from a Bob Baffert trained runner. First time starter Superman Shaq, trained by Peter Miller, is out of Drumette, who also foaled Graded Stakes winners Mr. Monomoy and Monomoy Girl.
Dr. Schivel, the only experienced runner in this field, has finished in the Trifecta in both of his career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sweet Devil (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Noble Hearted (ML 6-1)
# 7 Dolci (ML 30-1)
# 9 Wind and Hope (ML 8-1)
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (ML 9-2)
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Miss Addie Pray (ML 20-1)
# 2 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 8-1)
# 3 Bristol Bayou (ML 12-1)
# 4 Frose (ML 20-1)
# 8 Viazar (ML 12-1)
# 12 Surround (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Sweet Devil ran well last time out over this turf course, and Sweet Devil could move up with the added real estate. Noble Hearted took the Show at this class level two starts back. Dolci is another that could move up with the increase in distance; likewise Wind and Hope.
Nurse Goodbody disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out in a race that should be tossed from consideration. Nurse Goodbody took the Place at this class level two starts back.
Ya Beauty (GB), making her North American debut today, took the Place last time out in her second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis; and, boy, is this play well over my usual budget. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2,4,6,7 with 4,8,9 with 5,6,7,9,10,11 $108.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,8 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,5 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,8,12 $3.00
Total: $117.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 1, 2020
8/1/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The CTBA - # 2 Governor Goteven (Final Odds 3.40) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Del Mar Drama (3.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Bing Crosby - # 9 Collusion Illusion (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 9 On Mars (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Long story short, my single didn't get it done; as # 5 Tagline (1.20*), running in Race 9, finished well out of it, crossing under the wire eighth in a field of nine. Of course, such a result could have been overcome had I gotten one more "A" Selection home; but my top pick in the California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes, # 4 Righteously (3.90), finished next to last in her contest as well. So while getting two "A" Selections home to complete the sequence may create some positive momentum leading into next weekend, the bottom line is that this Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 9 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $178.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 8 Del Mar Drama (3.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Bing Crosby - # 9 Collusion Illusion (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 9 On Mars (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Long story short, my single didn't get it done; as # 5 Tagline (1.20*), running in Race 9, finished well out of it, crossing under the wire eighth in a field of nine. Of course, such a result could have been overcome had I gotten one more "A" Selection home; but my top pick in the California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes, # 4 Righteously (3.90), finished next to last in her contest as well. So while getting two "A" Selections home to complete the sequence may create some positive momentum leading into next weekend, the bottom line is that this Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 9 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $178.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/1/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” - Thomas Edison
The Grade 1 Bing Crosby is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar; a contest which required reassessment Friday with the announcement by Trainer Bob Baffert that he was withdrawing Morning Line Favorite McKinzie, with the intent of re-entering McKinzie in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien four weeks hence. So with that as background let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] The CTBA $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Righteously (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 1 Big Andy (ML 5-1)
# 2 Governor Goteven (ML 5-1)
# 3 Reign of Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Jasmine Chieftain (ML 15-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 6 Love Wins (ML 4-1) and # 7 I'm So Anna (ML 8-5)
Like the Grade 1 Bing Crosby later on the card, this event, a stakes for two year old California bred fillies (full name California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes), also sees the scratch of its Morning Line Favorite; and, you know, I'm just not going to mess with it. Everybody into the pool! Righteously, as the only entrant with a win over this main track, is my top pick; with all others also being given a spot on the main ticket. So no matter what happens, the big ticket plays going into the second leg.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Tagline (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Little Rachel (ML 5-1)
# 2 Naughty Evelyn (ML 6-1)
# 3 I Give Up (ML 12-1)
# 4 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Better With Age (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lookin So Lucky (ML 20-1)
# 8 Del Mar Drama (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wild Arch (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 10 Star of Africa (ML 8-1); # 11 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 5-1); # 12 Rowangoeshollywood (ML 8-1); # 13 M Fast (ML 20-1); and # 14 Constantia (ML 6-1)
In my opinion, the top contenders for this contest were to be found among the Also Eligibles. But with the elimination of those runners, Tagline is a clear standout here. Mind you, that doesn't guarantee victory; but I see no point in trying to beat Tagline. So one leg after going ALL I'm going solo, with Tagline alone on the main ticket, and all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Collusion Illusion (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-1)
# 3 Desert Law (ML 5-1)
# 6 Fashionably Fast (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Lexitonian (ML 6-1)
# 7 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 8-1)
# 8 Wildman Jack (ML 6-1)
# 10 Heartwood (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 McKinzie (ML 2-1) and # 5 P R Radio Star (ML 8-1)
As mentioned in the intro, Trainer Bob Baffet's decision to scratch McKinzie and give him another month's rest changes the whole complexion of this contest. Collusion Illusion, two-for-two lifetime over this track, and undefeated in one-turn races, projects to get a nice outside stalking trip.
Anyportinastorm looks to be the speed of the speed here, and could prove to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Desert Law missed by just half a length of winning last year's running of this event. Fashionably Fast was runner-up to McKenzie last time out in the Grade 2 Triple Bend; a result which ended a six race winning streak for the Dean Pederson trained Fashionably Fast. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 On Mars (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Ride Sally Ride (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bella Chica (ML 7-2)
# 6 Get'em Tiger (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Cheerful Charm (ML 5-1)
# 2 Nina En Fuego (ML 6-1)
# 4 Starship Sky (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kiss of Congrats (ML 12-1)
# 8 Spanish Channel (ML 20-1)
# 10 Shez Our Arch (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 La Gata Elegante (ML 6-1)
On Mars has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in each of her last two starts; not a trend that you like to see. But On Mars did finish in the Trifecta in each of those two contests, and looks to once again be the one beat.
Ride Sally Ride has proven to be competitive at this class level, and Ride Sally Ride acquitted herself well in her one prior turf try around two turns. Bella Chica could improve in her first try around two turns. Bella Chica is also putting on the blinkers for the first time; Trainer Mike Puype tends to do well with that particular move.
Get'em Tiger might improve trying the turf for the first time. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 5 with 2,3,6,9 with 3,5,6,9 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 9 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 1,7,8,10 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 1,2,4,7,8,10 $3.00
Total: $50.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Grade 1 Bing Crosby is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar; a contest which required reassessment Friday with the announcement by Trainer Bob Baffert that he was withdrawing Morning Line Favorite McKinzie, with the intent of re-entering McKinzie in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien four weeks hence. So with that as background let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] The CTBA $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Righteously (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 1 Big Andy (ML 5-1)
# 2 Governor Goteven (ML 5-1)
# 3 Reign of Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Jasmine Chieftain (ML 15-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 6 Love Wins (ML 4-1) and # 7 I'm So Anna (ML 8-5)
Like the Grade 1 Bing Crosby later on the card, this event, a stakes for two year old California bred fillies (full name California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes), also sees the scratch of its Morning Line Favorite; and, you know, I'm just not going to mess with it. Everybody into the pool! Righteously, as the only entrant with a win over this main track, is my top pick; with all others also being given a spot on the main ticket. So no matter what happens, the big ticket plays going into the second leg.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Tagline (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Little Rachel (ML 5-1)
# 2 Naughty Evelyn (ML 6-1)
# 3 I Give Up (ML 12-1)
# 4 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Better With Age (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lookin So Lucky (ML 20-1)
# 8 Del Mar Drama (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wild Arch (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 10 Star of Africa (ML 8-1); # 11 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 5-1); # 12 Rowangoeshollywood (ML 8-1); # 13 M Fast (ML 20-1); and # 14 Constantia (ML 6-1)
In my opinion, the top contenders for this contest were to be found among the Also Eligibles. But with the elimination of those runners, Tagline is a clear standout here. Mind you, that doesn't guarantee victory; but I see no point in trying to beat Tagline. So one leg after going ALL I'm going solo, with Tagline alone on the main ticket, and all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Collusion Illusion (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-1)
# 3 Desert Law (ML 5-1)
# 6 Fashionably Fast (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Lexitonian (ML 6-1)
# 7 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 8-1)
# 8 Wildman Jack (ML 6-1)
# 10 Heartwood (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 McKinzie (ML 2-1) and # 5 P R Radio Star (ML 8-1)
As mentioned in the intro, Trainer Bob Baffet's decision to scratch McKinzie and give him another month's rest changes the whole complexion of this contest. Collusion Illusion, two-for-two lifetime over this track, and undefeated in one-turn races, projects to get a nice outside stalking trip.
Anyportinastorm looks to be the speed of the speed here, and could prove to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Desert Law missed by just half a length of winning last year's running of this event. Fashionably Fast was runner-up to McKenzie last time out in the Grade 2 Triple Bend; a result which ended a six race winning streak for the Dean Pederson trained Fashionably Fast. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 On Mars (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Ride Sally Ride (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bella Chica (ML 7-2)
# 6 Get'em Tiger (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Cheerful Charm (ML 5-1)
# 2 Nina En Fuego (ML 6-1)
# 4 Starship Sky (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kiss of Congrats (ML 12-1)
# 8 Spanish Channel (ML 20-1)
# 10 Shez Our Arch (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 La Gata Elegante (ML 6-1)
On Mars has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in each of her last two starts; not a trend that you like to see. But On Mars did finish in the Trifecta in each of those two contests, and looks to once again be the one beat.
Ride Sally Ride has proven to be competitive at this class level, and Ride Sally Ride acquitted herself well in her one prior turf try around two turns. Bella Chica could improve in her first try around two turns. Bella Chica is also putting on the blinkers for the first time; Trainer Mike Puype tends to do well with that particular move.
Get'em Tiger might improve trying the turf for the first time. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 5 with 2,3,6,9 with 3,5,6,9 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 9 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 1,7,8,10 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 1,2,4,7,8,10 $3.00
Total: $50.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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