12/4/22 Del Mar Rainbow Pick Six - Results

Race 4 - # 12 Blackened (Final Odds 5.80) - "B" Selection

Race 5 - The Cecil B DeMille - # 7 Speed Boat Beach (1.70*) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 8 Resilient (1.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - The Matriarch - # 6 Regal Glory (0.60*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Tisquantum (7.90) - No Selection

Race 9 - # 5 Earls Rock (Ire) (2.70) - "B+" Selection

I thought that Speed Boat Beach wouldn't be able to keep his speed going for all eight furlongs on the turf in the Grade 3 Cecil B DeMille.  I thought wrong.  Still, that wasn't my only mistake Sunday, as I had no part at all of the winner of Race 8, Tisquantum; not even as a "C" Selection.  So, to bottom line Sunday, my day would have been much more profitable had I forsaken the multi-race wagers and just bet it all on my big ticket single, Regal Glory, winner of the Grade 1 Matriarch for the second year in a row.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of  12 / 7 / 8 / 6 / 6 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $1,002.92 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/4/22 Del Mar Rainbow Pick Six - Preview

“When opportunity presents itself, don’t be afraid to go after it.” - Eddie Kennison

Sunday is closing day for Del Mar's I Hope You Brought a Jacket Because This Ain't The Summer Meet; so everything must go.  That includes the twenty cent jackpot Rainbow Pick Six; which, after the completion of Saturday's card, has a carryover of $513,150.  While the jackpot payout is the key attraction, the Sunday card in and of itself is worthy of attention, containing as it does a pair of Graded Stakes.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $32k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Tenacious Lady (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Cherry Chaos (ML 8-1)+

# 3 Prestigious (ML 6-1)

# 12 Blackened (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Nobe (ML 6-1)

# 6 Forest Acclamation (ML 12-1)

# 7 General Welfare (ML 8-1)

# 8 Short Journey (ML 12-1)

# 13 Sweet Hello (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 4 Bruins Mastery (No Line); # 5 Hollywood Rumor (ML 15-1); and # 11 Miss Kaline (ML 8-1) EDIT - # 10 Lucky Vegas (ML 20-1) is also scratched

Tenacious Lady strikes me as a clear top choice; but I have enough question marks regarding Tenacious Lady to keep me from making her a single in this leg.  Cherry Chaos, dropping in for a tag for the first time, looks like a logical contender.  Prestigious and Blackened are first time starters; and for those with larger bankrolls wishing to add more runners to this leg, I would suggest that they give a good, long look to the other debut runners in this contest.  And since no one likes being knocked out in the opening leg, for this contest I've reverted to using all runners not on the big ticket as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 5 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 First Peace (ML 5-1)

B's

# 2 Ransomware (ML 6-1) +

C's

# 1 Kolomio (ML 20-1)
# 4 Ah Jeez (ML 3-1)
# 5 Game Time (ML 6-1)
# 6 Ze'bul (ML 5-1)
# 7 Speed Boat Beach (ML 5-2)
# 8 Fleet Feet (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 9 Lloyds Logic (ML 20-1)

This the first of two Graded Stakes on the Sunday card; and note that both will be run over the turf course at a distance of one mile.  For this contest, juveniles will be trying to navigate two turns on the turf.  Six of the eight runners have one or fewer Wins; so it often goes in Graded Stakes for two year olds, even in December.

Personally, I think the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes belongs to one of the one Win entrants.  I'm skeptical of the Morning Line Favorite, Speed Boat Beach, being able to keep his speed going for all eight furlongs on the turf.  Still, since these are juveniles on the grass, Speed Boat Beach and all other entrants not on the main ticket, will be used as backup "C" Selections.  Oh, and note the + next to Ransomware (and Cherry Chaos in the opening leg).  I've added a B+ to the Selection process, as a (I hope) fine tuning element to my ticket construction.  For my play, a B+ will be included with the A's as a single ticket, but will not be used with the C's; at least for a few weeks, until I get a true feel for how it's working out.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Resilient (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Square Cat (ML 3-1)

# 7 Brace for Impact (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 1 I Know Cash Flow (ML 4-1)

# 3 Thirsty Always (ML 12-1)

# 4 Single Me Out (ML 5-1)

# 5 Holiday Arousal (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 6 Mr. T's Thirsty (ML 12-1)

For those who take note of such things, Thirsty Always and Single Me Out are the only two runners in this field that will be competing with the $20k price tag on their head.

Were this a Pick 4 rather than a Pick 6, I would remove either Resilient or Square Cat off the big ticket.  However, I believe that with the additional two legs that a Pick 6 provides, that I can catch a separator in another race and just get through this one (hopefully); thus justifying the added cost (and the lessened value) to the main ticket.

RACE 7 - The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Regal Glory (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Bipartisanship (GB) (ML 10-1)

# 5 Hamwood Flier (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 8 Pizza Bianca (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 4 Gold for Kitten (ML 20-1) and # 7 Wakanaka (Ire) (ML 5-1)

Not much that I can do with this one.  Regal Glory looks to be very much the best here.  By way of disclaimer, I should mention that I also thought that Regal Glory looked to be very much the best last time out in the Breeders' Cup Mile; yet, somehow, nine other runners managed to get under the wire before Regal Glory in that event.

Anyway, while this contest drew quite well, Regal Glory does appear to be a standout; and I see no logical reason to double (or treble) the cost of my main ticket by adding runners in this leg.

RACE 8 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Petruchio (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 4 Bright Leaf (ML 5-2)+

# 7 Street Art (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 5 Oncoming (ML 6-1)

# 8 Papale (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 3 Candy for Carmel (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have won fewer than two races in their career; no exceptions.  For some reason, that information is often not included in the running lines of the Past Performances.

Bright Leaf looks good, but is by no means a standout.  Conversely, Papale has done reasonably well at this level, but Papale just doesn't appear to be fast enough for this bunch.  So Bright Leaf is a B+, Papale is a C, and fingers are solidly crossed.

RACE 9 - OC 80k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Ready Soul (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 Count of Amazonia (ML 6-1)

# 5 Earls Rock (Ire) (ML 3-1)+

# 7 Crew Dragon (ML 30-1)

# 10 Lincoln Hawk (Ire) (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 3 Flashiest (ML 12-1)

# 4 Mecklenburg (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 8 Hudson Ridge (ML 6-1)

# 9 Zoffarelli (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 2 Kanderel (ML 8-1)

Mecklenburg (Ire) and Ready Soul are the two in this field that are up for sale.  Ready Soul strikes me as one to use in the Win pool; especially if this is going to be your "get out" race for the weekend.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,9 with 2,3 with 7,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 with 5,6,10 $14.40

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,3,9,12 with 2,3 with 2,7,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 with 1,5,6,7,10 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 2,6,7,8,13 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $1.00

$0.20 P6: 9 with 1,4,5,6,7,8 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 1,3,4,5 with 6 with 2 with 6 $0.80

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 1,5,8 with 2 with 6 $0.60

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 5,8 with 6 $0.40

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 3,4,8,9 $0.80

Total: $93.20

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:00 EST / 2:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/26/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Spun Intended (Final Odds 0.80*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - The Seabiscuit - # 3 Hong Kong Harry (Ire) (1.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 7 Hopkins (1.80*) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 2 Percolate (Ire) (15.60) - "B" Selection

Long story short, I didn't think Hopkins, facing winners for the first time in Race 8, was a legitimate Favorite.  Turns out that he was.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 7 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $139.50 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/26/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"To become a better you, remember to be grateful to people who have contributed to making you who you are today." - Israelmore Ayivor

It's Thanksgiving Weekend across the USA, so please allow me to take a moment to use the occasion to thank all of you for your support through the years.  Your encouragement, your feedback; even just the act of taking the time to come here to read what I have to say is very much appreciated.  Thank you all!

The featured race Saturday in Southern California is the Grade 2 Seabiscuit; part of Del Mar's Turf Festival that is incorporated into their Fall Meeting.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Spun Intended (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 Barnstorming (ML 5-1)

# 5 Johannes (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Smoose (ML 20-1)

# 7 Texthelegend (ML 12-1)
# 8 Tall Boy (ML 12-1)

# 9 Harlocap (ML 3-1)

Spun Intended took the Place in his debut last time, just a half length back of the winner at the wire.  A strong case could be made off that effort for making Spun Intended a big ticket single; and, at the end of the day, I may be regretting not having done so.  But runners trained by Mark Glatt often don't move forward in their second career start; so, for that reason, I thought it best to do a little spreading.

Barnstorming, one of five first time starters in this field, looks best among those making their debuts.  Johannes took the Show last time out, in the same contest that Spun Intended was taking the Place.  While making up the two and a half lengths Spun Intended had on him in that race will be no small feat, Johannes did a significant part of the heavy lifting in that contest, pressing the pacesetter through the early going.  For that reason, I think that Johannes deserves consideration here.

RACE 7 - The Seabiscuit (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Set Piece (GB) (ML 5-1)

B's

# 3 Hong Kong Harry (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 7 Irideo (Arg) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Kentucky Ghost (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Santin (ML 3-1)

# 2 Masteroffoxhounds (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 6 Lincoln Hawk (Ire) (ML 20-1)

I see lots and lots of early speed in this race, coming from nearly half the field: # 1 Santin;  # 2 Masteroffoxhounds; # 4 Smooth Like Strait; and # 5 Beyond Brilliant.  Those four should produce some early fractions of epic proportions; which (I hope) will lead in turn to an epic pace meltdown.

I'll use two of those four as backup "C" Selections; I'll take a one dollar just in case flyer.  But as far as the main ticket goes, I'm looking  towards those entrants who will be charging though the home stretch while dodging the tiring early leaders.  Set Piece (GB) seems to me to be the best of those who will be doing their best running late.  So Set Piece gets the top spot, while the other closers get slotted in as "B" Selections.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 City Rage (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 2 Liberty Forever (ML 5-1)

# 6 Finally Here (ML 8-1)

C's

# 7 Hopkins (ML 9-5)

# 8 Augusta Melody (ML 8-1)

The Brisnet Past Performances that I am using have this labeled as a N2X.  That's an obvious typo, as can be seen by reading the full conditions; or even just by looking at the $40k Claiming price.  Speaking of which, note that # 4 City Rage is the only one in this field that is in for a tag.

Moving on to other matters, I'm playing against the Baffert runner (and Morning Line Favorite) Hopkins.  It took Hopkins three tries to graduate, and not until near the end of his four year old season.  The worst of Hopkins three prior starts was the only one of the three at today's distance of six furlongs, as well as the only one of his three races run on the Del Mar main track.  In my humble opinion Hopkins will be one to watch when he goes around two turns; but, for me today, Hopkins is just a backup "C" Selection (a fifty cent investment).

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Aligato (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Percolate (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 9 Tio Magico (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Fly the Sky (ML 12-1)

# 6 Dominant Soul (ML 30-1)
# 7 Hawk of War (ML 4-1)

# 10 Seven Wonders (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 11 Hockey Dad (ML 8-1)

Was this not Aligato's first race against a field that includes non-California bred runners, I would probably make Aligato a big ticket single.  But since this is Aligato's first race outside the state bred only ranks, I decided that a little spread was called for.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 4 with 8 with 4 with 5 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,5 with 3,7,8,9 with 2,4,6 with 2,5,9 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4:  3,7,8,9 with 8 with 4 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4:  4 with 1,2 with 4 with 5 $1.00

$0.50 P4:  4 with 8 with 7,8 with 5 $1.00

$0.50 P4:  4 with 8 with 4 with 1,6,7,10 $2.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/19/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Desi Arnaz - # 1 Justique (Final Odds 1.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 One More Bid (3.10) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 5 The Chosen Vron (1.00*) - No Selection

Race 9 - # 4 Gillian Elizabeth (3.80) - No Selection

Long story short, The Chosen Vron proved to be much too good in the $100k Cary Grant, going right on by my single in that leg, # 4 Big City Lights (1.30), to win by a little over three lengths.  And in the grand scheme of things it proved to be just as well, as my (and the public's) top pick in the nightcap, # 5 Kitty Katana (GB) (1.20*), despite getting the lead in the stretch, didn't have enough stamina to get the full eight and a half furlongs in a timely manner.  And while I did spread in that leg, I had no part of the eventual winner.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 1 / 5 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $80.10 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/19/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"The most successful detectives owe their success to noticing small signs.  Scouts are natural detectives and never let the smallest detail escape them.  These small things are called by Scouts 'Sign.'" - Robert Baden-Powell

Saturday's Del Mar card has a pair of stakes that, to put it kindly, did not draw well.  I probably should have looked elsewhere for horse racing action today rather than towards what SoCal is offering.  But I ultimately decided to stick with the Del Mar Final Four despite the low number of entries.  After all, it's not just the outdoor temperatures that have been cold here of late; so perhaps deciphering a sequence with fewer runners will help me get back on track.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Desi Arnaz $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Justique (Morning Line 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Parody (ML 4-1)
# 4 Huntingcoco (ML 7-2)

These are juvenile fillies, so it would not be jaw dropping if one or more in this field experienced a growth spurt since their last outing.  I see no value in going more than one deep in this leg; so don't interpret my using Justique as a big ticket single means that I'm of the opinion that Justique is much the best in this field.  Far from it; I anticipate this to be a well contested event.  But doubling (or trebling) the cost of the main ticket strikes me as a poor strategical move.  So it's Justique solo on the big ticket; with a couple of possible prices tossed in as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Six Magpies (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 6 Irish Prophet (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 One More Bid (ML 3-1)
# 2 Tokamak (ML 15-1)

# 3 Quintecents (ML 5-2)

# 7 Dancing Rinca (ML 6-1)

# 8 One Time Mark (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Lord Sheldon (ML 12-1)

Another race that I expect to be well contested.  Part of the problem in sorting out this contest is that the clear "best" horse in this field, One More Bid, often seems quite content to settle for second instead of taking the top prize.  Indeed, One More Bid has taken the Place in more than half of his seven career starts.  Which is nice if you're engaged in Quinella wagering; but not so nice if you're searching for a winner at profitable odds.

Six Magpies (Ire) gains the services of Jockey Flavien Prat for this, his North American debut and second career start.  Juan Hernandez, no slouch himself when it comes to turf riding, will be onboard Irish Prophet, who returns to the Maiden ranks after taking a crack at OC/N1X company.  Those two appear to offer the best value here; but, as you can tell by my use of the "ALL" button, I see this one as anybody's race.

RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Big City Lights (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 6 None Above the Law (ML 5-2)

   

Scratch # 1 Finneus (ML 15-1) and # 3 Surfing Star (No Line)

Wow.  Scratched down to a field of four.  Not much to do with this contest.  # 5 The Chosen Vron (ML 1-1) will almost certainly leave the gate as a very short priced Favorite.  But maybe Big City Lights can run 'em off their feet and get to the line before The Chosen Vron can get into top gear.  Could happen.  I'll also toss in None Above the Law as a backup "C" Selection, since None Above the Law could get a good run at the pace before 'Vron gets rolling.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Kitty Kitana (GB) (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Lady Clementine (GB) (ML 12-1)

# 6 Emerald Lake (ML 12-1)

C's

# 8 Founder's Day (ML 12-1)

# 11 Over Attracted (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 Gimme Mo Baby (ML 6-1); but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 12 Lady Jae (ML 6-1) and # 13 Dramatizer (ML 8-1), as they are scratched as well.

Kitty Kitana (GB), trained by Phil D'Amato, took the Show in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss at Santa Anita last time out.  A strong case could be made for making Kitty Kitana a big ticket single; but I decided not to because I think that the added half-furlong between that contest and today's event works to Kitty Kitana's detriment.

Lady Clementine (GB), who pretty much just went through the motions while being outclassed in her last two starts, could improve with a return to Del Mar and the return of Lasix to her bloodstream.  Emerald Lake, trained by Peter Miller, seems to prefer the California grass found at Del Mar over that which grows at Santa Anita.  The two backup "C" Selections are prices that could steal this one on the front end.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 4 with 5 $5.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1 with ALL with 4 with 2,5,6 $10.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 5,6 with 4 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 6 with 5 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 4 with 8,11 $2.00

Total: $20.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo