5/25/23 Charles Town Late Pick Four - Preview

“If you're not failing every now and again, it's a sign you're not doing anything very innovative.” - Woody Allen

It's definitely been awhile since I've posted a play involving this West Virginia track.  But there's a holiday weekend approaching in the US, and while that means lots of great stakes, I know that also means for many of you that they'll be no time for handicapping, as family and other activities are on the calendar.  For others, this could be an opportunity to pad the bankroll heading into three days of fun.   Regardless of the reason let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Hollywood Casino At Charles Town Races.

RACE 5 - (F) [S] Md $7.5k - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

So the first handicapping question of the evening to be answered is how much faith should I place in the past performances of a class of runners notorious for being inconsistent?  Last time out, # 7 S S Casino Girl (ML 9-5) and # 5 Showthemoneyhoney (ML 2-1) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level.  One would therefore expect that these two would be the prime candidates to get their photo taken tonight; and the Morning Line odds certainly reflect that opinion.  So if I were to expect their form to hold, I would select either S S Casino Girl or Showthemoneyhoney as my top pick here, and then hope to catch a price in one of the other three legs.

But I'm going to go in a different direction in this contest, on the presumption that SS Casino Girl and Showthemoneyhoney are going to attract an extremely high percentage of the funds in the pool.  I'm going to roll the dice and make # 6 Lockdown Vanna (ML 10-1) my "A" Selection for this leg.  I like the class drop, I like the cutback in distance, and I really like the probability that Lockdown Vanna will be under bet.

If form holds, then I'll be spending the rest of this sequence alive only to a backup ticket, as that's where you'll find S S Casino Girl and Showthemoneyhoney in my play.  But should Lockdown Vanna come through, then I'll have an opportunity to connect the dots on a payout that will definitely be worth having.

RACE 6 - (F) [S] OClm 10000 - Seven Furlongs Dirt

The Starter Allowance piece of this contest's conditions is that, sometime over the past twenty-four months, the distaff runner must have started for a claiming price of $5k or less.  For those who note such things, the runners in this field who are in for the $10 claiming price are # 1 Got Your Number (ML 20-1); # 2 Grace Elizabeth (ML 4-1); and # 7 Moiraine (ML 12-1).

# 9 Secret Castle (ML 9-5) looks legit here, and probably should be a big ticket single.  But # 3 Castle of Caylee (ML 15-1) in my opinion merits attention; the question is, how much attention?  While I may later regret this, I'm going to double the cost of my main ticket by going two deep in this leg, pairing Castle of Caylee with Secret Castle in this battle of thrones.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] ALW N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 6 Nearest N Dearest (ML 9-2)

# 5 Sneaky Lynk (ML 6-1) and # 8 Love of Grace (ML 10-1) competed against each other multiple times while both were seeking career victory number one; and Sneaky Lynk and Love of Grace both appear to be in top form and ready to resume their personal duel.

Certainly the class dropping # 2 Strong Willed (ML 7-2) deserves serious consideration, especially in light of Strong Willed having raced above her conditions in each of her last two starts.  Strong Willed is making her first start of 2023; but she has won off just works in the past, specifically in her career debut.

I'm also going to toss # 7 Lucky Bop (ML 4-1) into the mix; though it's difficult to know how much of Lucky Bop's performance last time out was courtesy of competing on a sealed track.  It's a close call, but I'm going to give Lucky Bop a spot on my main ticket, making it four deep for me in this leg.

RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

And so we arrive (hopefully still alive) at the only race in the sequence not carded for state bred distaff runners.  I think it's clear that this race goes through the Morning Line Favorite, the shipper from Maryland, # 9 Notimelikepresent (ML 9-5).  The only question in my mind is should Notimelikepresent be a single on the main ticket.

Certainly # 2 Bubba G (ML 2-1) is very likely to improve with a cleaner trip; and # 3 Cherry's Cross (ML 5-1), who took the Show at this class level last time out, is displaying a pattern of steady improvement that shouldn't be ignored.  But I've chosen to leave those two off my main ticket.

However, I am going to slot # 7 Angelus Diamond (ML 12-1) into my main play.  Angelus Diamond appears to be a strong candidate to rebound going third off the layoff, perhaps returning to the form that he displayed when he took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Whether or not that effort will be good enough to defeat Notimelikepresent remains to be seen; but if Angelus Diamond should pull the upset, it will be at a very nice price.  So it's two deep for me in this leg as far as my main play is concerned.

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	6,			5,7	1,4
LEG 2	9,	3		2	1,4,6,8
LEG 3	5,	8,	2,7		9,10
LEG 4	9,	7		2,3	1,4,5,6,8

And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are the tickets into which those Selections have been translated:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 9 with 5 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 7,9 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 2,5,7,8 with 7,9 $8.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 7,9 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 5,8 with 7,9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 2,3 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 9 with 5 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,6,8 with 5 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 9,10 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 5 with 1,4,5,6,8 $2.50

Total: $37.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 8:53 EDT / 5:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/20/23 Pimlico Preakness Pick Four - Results

Race 10 - The Jim McKay - # 13 Beer Can Man (Final Odds 3.50) - "C+" Selection

Race 11 - The Maryland Sprint - # 8 Straight No Chaser (1.60*) - "A" Selection

Race 12 - The James W Murphy - # 9 Nagirroc (1.00*) - "B" Selection

Race 13 - The Preakness - # 1 National Treasure (2.90) - "C+" Selection

My main ticket single failed to win his event, which, well, happens.  But going ALL in the James W Murphy just to see the even money Favorite cruise to a solid victory is pretty solid evidence that this was a sequence upon which I did not have a solid grip.  And yet, it's hard to be too disappointed in the result when the play ends with one of the all-time great stretch battles in the history of the sport.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Preakness Pick Four sequence of  13 / 8 / 9 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $47.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/20/23 Pimlico Preakness Pick Four - Preview

"I don't get no respect.  I joined Gambler's Anonymous.  They gave me two to one I don't make it.  I tell ya, gambling never agreed with me.  Last week I went to the track and they shot my horse with the opening gun." - Rodney Dangerfield

So we arrive at the Rodney Dangerfield of horse racing's Triple Crown, the jewel that gets no respect, the Preakness Stakes.  This year's renewal of the Preakness is so lightly regarded that even the horses couldn't be bothered to show up, as the field for 2023 is the smallest since Ronald Regan was President.  But all that is relative, as we're still talking about one of the sport's classics.  So with all that said let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four at Pimlico Race Course ending with the Preakness Stakes.

RACE 10 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf

Scratch # 2 Kenny Had a Notion (Morning Line 50-1); # 4 Uncle Earnie (ML 20-1); # 5 Smokin' Jay (ML 6-1); # 7 Fore Harp (ML 15-1); and # 8 Grateful Bred (ML 10-1)

Nothing like kicking things off with a turf sprint to see whether or not this is going to be a good sequence for you.  Turf sprints, specifically the five furlong variety, tend to have more long shot winners than other stakes, be they State Bred Only, Listed, or Graded.  I believe that's because turf sprints are the stakes where class and breeding tend to matter least.

With that said, I singled # 10 Coppola (ML 6-1) on my main ticket because I don't think the class rise will have a negative effect on his chances to win.  In my opinion Coppola could emerge victorious in this contest with a repeat of the effort that he gave last time out.  But I think that Coppola will actually improve upon that result Saturday, as Coppola should benefit from having to travel a shorter distance than he did when winning by over four lengths earlier this month at Churchill Downs.  So it's Coppola solo on my main ticket in this leg.

RACE 11 - The Maryland Sprint (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 4 Al Loves Josie (ML 10-1)

I landed on # 8 Straight No Chaser (ML 3-1) rather than the Morning Line Favorite, # 7 Nakatomi (ML 5-2) because I believe that the six furlong distance favors Straight No Chaser more than Nakatomi.  So it's Straight No Chaser on the main ticket without Nakatomi; but not solo, as I think # 2 Prevalence (ML 8-1) is worth doubling the cost of my main ticket due to the way that's he's been working this month over at Keeneland.

RACE 12 - The James W Murphy $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

God bless you if you have a handle on this race; because I sure don't.  If # 1 Funtastic Again (ML 3-1) brings his form from the synthetic over to the grass, then Funtastic Again wins; but that's no small "if."  So it's everybody into the pool, as I go "ALL" in this third leg of the sequence.

RACE 13 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 8 First Mission (ML 5-2)

As it was with the Kentucky Derby, a scratch late in the week has changed the outlook of this contest.  I'm playing against Kentucky Derby winner # 3 Mage  (ML 8-5) because I believe that his Derby victory was highly dependent upon a pace scenario that I don't think that he will be gifted Saturday.

I'm also fading the Bob Baffert trained # 1 National Treasure (ML 4-1).  I don't think National Treasure has improved significantly upon his two year old season, and I'm not a fan of runners adding blinkers prior to a Triple Crown event (now is not the time to still be figuring things out for your three year old).  So it's two deep on the main ticket for me here, with # 5 Red Route One (ML 10-1) and # 7 Blazing Sevens (ML 6-1).

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	10,			1,11,13	3,6,9,12
LEG 2	8,	2		7,9	1,3,5,6,10
LEG 3	1,	6,	2,3,4,5,7,8,9
LEG 4	5,	7		1,3	2,4,6

And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how I translate those Selections into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 8 with 1 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 2,8 with 1,6 with 5,7 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,8 with ALL with 5,7 $18.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 1,11,13 with 2,8 with 1,6 with 5,7 $12.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 7,9 with 1,6 with 5,7 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,8 with 1,6 with 1,3 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6,9,12 with 8 with 1 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,3,5,6,10 with 1 with 5 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 1 with 2,4,6 $1.50

Total: $53.00

Post Time for Race 10 is 4:12 EDT / 1:12 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/13/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Danielle's Secret (Final Odds 7.90) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 Lucky Lad (2.40) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Aloha Breeze (0.60*) - "C+" Selection

Race 9 - # 6 Above the Stars (0.40*) - "A" Selection

The good news was that I got my big ticket single home in the nightcap.  The bad news was that Above the Stars was one of only two Selections on my main ticket to get their picture taken.  So, while I wouldn't have gained much, my Profit and Loss Statement Saturday would have been much better served had I just put it all on Above the Stars and forsaken The Late Pick Four.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 1 / 4 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $45.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/13/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

“Life is worthwhile if you try.  It doesn’t mean you can do everything but there are a lot of things you can do, if you just try.” - Jim Rohn

Welcome to the Second Saturday in May, the traditional resting place between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes!  In celebration of such tradition, I plan on doing something untraditional; at least, untraditional in the history of this blog: Take part in the action at Auburn, WA.

Specifically, I intend on playing Emerald Downs today; which, as can be seen on their calendar, began their 2023 racing meeting last Saturday.  I know I won't be playing the Emerald Downs card every weekend this Summer (for example, next Saturday is the aforementioned Second Jewel of The Triple Crown); but this seems like an excellent opportunity to sample their product.  So with the attitude of a trailblazer let's get to it, as, for the first time on this blog, I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Emerald Downs.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $8k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 3 Big  Mama Thornton (No Line)

I've chosen to fade the Morning Line Favorite in this leg, # 7 Camden High (Morning Line 2-1) and designate this five year old mare as a "C" Selection.  Personally, 2-1 is not the price that I prefer to accept on a runner that has one career Win in twenty-five attempts.  Worse, at least in my mind, is that Camden High has taken the Place in nine of those twenty-five attempts.  Toss in four more races in which Camden High took the Show, and you have a pretty good profile of a horse that is very much content to settle for a minor award in races where she was in fact the best.  Of course, should Camden High run as well as the Morning Line suggests that she should, this could turn out to be a very short afternoon for me.

RACE 7 - ALW N2L* - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

The asterisk after the "N2L" above is because horses which were bred in the state of Washington are allowed another victory; so for Washington bred runners, the condition is N3L; that is, non-Winners of Three Lifetime Races.  A pretty good deal, if you ask me.  For those curious regarding such matters, # 2 Firewater (ML 6-1); # 5 March On Linch (ML 15-1); and # 6 Poverty Bay (ML 2-1) are the entrants in this field that have had their photograph taken three times.

Despite his advantage over half this field in career victories, I've chosen to keep Poverty Bay off my main ticket and slot the four year old gelding in as a "C+" Selection.  Poverty Bay is winless over this track in four tries; but with three Place finishes.  At better odds, I may have given greater consideration to Poverty Bay; but at 2-1 I'm willing to roll the dice and play against his chances.  So two legs into this sequence, I've chosen to fade the two Morning Line Favorites.  Which will be known to be either genius or idiocy once these races have been made Official.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 30k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 2 Ms Flashy Harbor (ML 5-1) and # 5 Drinkup Buttercup (ML 8-1)

Hmmm; $30k isn't too shabby for a first level Optional Claimer; though, on the other hand, these are three year olds only.  Were I a more energetic sort I would see how that claiming price compares with other circuits in North America.  Anyway, for all with a need to know, # 2 Ms Flashy Harbor and # 5 Drinkup Buttercup are the only two runners in this field that are up for sale for $30k.  EDIT - And, as can be seen above, coincidentally or not, both Ms Flashy Harbor and Drinkup Buttercup have been scratched.

To continue the theme of this post, I will not be using the Morning Line Favorite in this leg, # 4 Aloha Breeze (ML 2-1) on my main ticket, but rather as a "C+" Selection.  Granted, this one is more hunch than analysis, but Aloha Breeze strikes me as a runner that needs a race, and is up against a field where she'll need her best to win.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 8 Classy Candy (ML 5-1)

Okay; here's the exception to the rule in this sequence, as I not only have the Morning Line Favorite, # 6 Above the Stars (ML 6-5) on my main ticket, but I have chosen to use Above the Stars as my main ticket single for this leg.  Still, me being me, I do have a hedge in place, as all others in this contest will find their way onto a backup ticket as a "C" Selection, with the exception of second time starter # 4 Zeva Dee, who I have made a "C+" Selection off her stunning gate work of April 29.

So with all that verbiage aside, here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	1,		2,8	6	4,5,7
LEG 2	3,	7,		6	1,2,4,5
LEG 3	6,	7,	3	4,8	1
LEG 4	6,			4	1,2,3,5,7

And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 6 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 6 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,8 with 3,7 with 3,6,7 with 6 $9.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 6 with 6,7 with 6 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 4,8 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,7 with 3 with 6 with 6 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5 with 6 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1 with 6 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 $2.50

Total: $27.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:47 EDT / 4:47 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/6/23 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The American Turf - # 14 Webslinger (Final Odds 22.67) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The Churchill Downs presented by Ford - # 7 Cody's Wish (0.72) - "A" Selection

Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 5 Up to the Mark (2.63) - "B+" Selection

Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 8 Mage (15.21) - "B+" Selection

For yet another example of why I consider backup tickets to be so important, had I made # 14 Webslinger a "C+" Selection rather than a "C" in the American Turf, I would have collected Saturday, rather than contributing.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  14 / 7 / 5 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,318.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo