7/6/19 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview

It's Stars & Stripes Day at Belmont Park; and less than a month after the tremendous card that accompanied the third leg of the Triple Crown, the good people at NYRA have put together another program chock full of Graded Stakes.  As there are three Pick Fours available for wagering on Saturday, allow me to make it clear up front that I will be analyzing the sequence Races 7 through 10, inclusive.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The All Graded Stakes Pick Four at The Championship Track, Belmont Park.

RACE 7 - (F) The Belmont Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A's

# 9 Cambier Parc (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Olendon (Fr) (ML 9-2)
# 4 Concrete Rose (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (ML 5-2)

# 3 Coral Beach (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 5 Cafe Americano (ML 12-1)

# 6 Just Wonderful (ML 6-1)

# 7 Jodie (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Dyna Passer (ML 30-1)

Cambier Parc and Concrete Rose have taken turns defeating Morning Line Favorite Newspaperofrecord (Ire); whom, you'll notice, I will not be using on the big ticket.  Speed is certainly a great asset on Belmont's inner turf course; but I'm not convinced that Newspaperofrecord will be quickest here; and I think ten furlongs might be a bridge too far for her to cross.

Olendon (Fr), Group 1 Stakes placed in her native France, looks well meant here.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field, including Newspaperofrecord.

RACE 8 - The John A Nerud (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 Nicodemus (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Warrior's Club (ML 10-1)

# 7 Do Share (ML 7-2)

# 9 Promises Fulfilled (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 New York Central (ML 8-1)

# 5 Killybegs Captain (ML 15-1)

# 6 Bon Raison (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Majestic Dunhill (ML 15-1) and # 8 Pat On the Back (ML 4-1)

Nicodemus closed well in the Grade 2 True North Stakes last time out, and the extra half furlong may be enough to get Nicodemus into the winner's circle Saturday.  Warrior's Club certainly fits well here with the contenders, and he will be a nice price; but Warrior's Club seems to settle for too many minor awards.

Do Share would be my top choice if this race was being run at Aqueduct rather than Belmont Park.  Promises Fulfilled is certainly classiest here; but Promises Fulfilled is going to be challenged to grab the early lead Saturday; and it's fair be against Promises Fulfilled in any contest where he's not leading the field out of the gate.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Belmont Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A's

# 13 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 Moon Colony (ML 12-1)

# 4 English Bee (ML 30-1)

# 9 Cape of Good Hope (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 11 Blenheim Palace (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 14 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Standard Deviation (ML 15-1)

# 3 Seismic Wave (ML 5-1)

# 5 Plus Que Parfait (ML 15-1)

# 6 Henley's Joy (ML 12-1)

# 7 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 12-1)

# 8 Social Paranoia (ML 8-1)

# 10 Spinoff (ML 15-1)

# 12 Demarchelier (GB) (ML 6-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 He's No Lemon (ML 30-1)

Needless to say, I consider this contest to be a wide open affair, and I suggest that you go as deep as your budget will allow.  On the other hand, if Morning Line Favorite and Chad Brown trainee Digital Age (Ire) repeats his last out effort in winning the Grade 2 American Turf, then going deep in this leg could look like a rather foolish decision in retrospect.  But this is the way I'll be playing it, with six on the big ticket, and the rest being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - The Suburban (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 Marconi (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Catholic Boy (ML 9-5)

# 2 Preservationist (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Rocketry (ML 8-1)

# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 8-1)

# 6 Mead Hall (ML 50-1)

# 7 Wooderson (ML 12-1)

# 8 Carlino (ML 20-1)

# 9 Realm (ML 20-1)

# 10 Cordmaker (ML 12-1)

# 11 Pavel (ML 8-1)

Marconi, winner of the Grade 2 Brooklyn last time out, shouldn't be disadvantaged by the cutback in distance.  Catholic Boy returns to the dirt; and while he has proven that he can win at this level on either surface, I think Catholic Boy would be better served by staying on the lawn.

Preservationist is taking a pretty big step up the class ladder; but I think that Preservationist has shown that he has the talent to compete at this class level.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 13 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,9 with 3,4,7,9 with 1,4,9,11,13,14 with 1,2,4 $108.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 4 with 13 with 4 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,5,6 with 13 with 4 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10,12 with 4 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 13 with 3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 $4.00

Total: $121.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:32 EDT / 1:32 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo