"In February there is everything to hope for and nothing to regret." - Patience Strong
The Road to the Kentucky Derby barrels on in earnest; or, more accurately, in New York, Florida, and California, with the running of the Withers, the Holy Bull, and the Robert B Lewis, respectively. Depending on when you're reading this, hopefully you have done well or will do well playing those contests; and, if not, hopefully we can all get out tonight, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $15k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Kojo's Queen (Morning Line 8-1)
B’s
# 6 Novella (ML 5-2)
# 8 I Likem (ML 7-2)
# 9 Flash n' Dance (ML 7-2)
# 11 Dance the Day Away (ML 10-1)
# 12 Curlin Coed (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Girls Got Track (ML 12-1)
# 3 Court the Storm (ML 30-1)
# 4 Positive Vibes (ML 20-1)
# 5 Going to Temple (ML 15-1)
# 7 Hydra's Hope (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 10 Matt's Honey (ML 20-1)
Kojo's Queen took the Place against classier stock at Churchill Downs last time out; now it's just a question of how Kojo's Queen will take to the surface. Novella is another trying the synthetic surface for the first time, but who seems to have a class edge over the field.
I Likem, Flash n' Dance, and Dance the Day Away are moving up the class ladder, each having won last time out against N2L company. Curlin Coed seems to fit the conditions well, and Curlin Coed was victorious in one of her two prior tries over this track. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $7.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Mountain Melodies (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Last Bridle (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Grams Revenge (ML 4-1)
# 3 Hoptown Hope (ML 20-1)
# 5 Honey Bourbon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Fred's Baby Doll (ML 5-1)
# 7 Princess Marykate (ML 5-1)
# 8 Kings Big Road (ML 15-1)
# 9 West Virginia Pam (ML 12-1)
# 10 Dear Theodosia (ML 12-1)
# 11 Presi Plain Jane (ML 20-1)
# 12 Yellow Bird (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Madam Novetzke (ML 4-1) and # 14 Thirst Trap (ML 4-1)
Mountain Melodies took the Place at this class level last time out. Last Bridle could move up with the class drop; perhaps Last Bridle getting the blinkers removed could help as well. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - ALW N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Royal Mesa (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Chasin Charlie (ML 20-1)
# 2 Unite the Masses (ML 30-1)
# 3 Faversham (ML 15-1)
# 5 Aqualityindividual (ML 20-1)
# 6 J W Ruckus (ML 6-1)
# 7 Majestic Valley (ML 8-1)
# 9 Giant Honor (ML 20-1)
# 10 Never Even Called (ML 6-1)
# 11 Thomas Selby (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 8 Court and Spark (ML 20-1)
Royal Mesa took the Place in the $75k Prairie Bayou last time out, his first time competing on this surface. I've made Royal Mesa my big ticket single in this play not so much because I think Royal Mesa is much the best, but because there are several just a notch below Royal Mesa who would have to be considered contenders were I to go more than one deep in this leg. So facing the choice of using one or using five, I decided to single, with all others being relegated to backup "C" Selection status.
RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Cabot Trail (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Command Code (ML 10-1)
# 3 True to Dixie (ML 7-2)
# 4 Las Ana (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Kickapoo (ML 12-1)
# 6 Treasure Mine (ML 20-1)
# 7 Twinkling Knight (ML 12-1)
# 8 Idaho Tornado (ML 12-1)
# 9 Icy Street (ML 15-1)
# 10 Raf (ML 20-1)
# 11 Corporal Cat (ML 20-1)
# 12 Lil Pistola (ML 30-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Last Spring (ML 15-1) and # 14 Libor Plus (ML 8-1)
Cabot Trail is getting some serious class relief from his last time out; but the fact is that Cabot Trail was in way over his head last time out, and this is a more realistic company within which for him to compete.
Command Code could be speed on the rail. True to Dixie could be the one running best late. Las Ana has one Win in forty tries in his career; which means that tossing him makes much more sense than putting him on the big ticket. But Las Ana has only competed twice over this track; and he's taken the Show in both of them; and I singled in the previous leg. So onto the main ticket goes Las Ana, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 1 with 4 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,9,11,12 with 1,4 with 4 with 1,3,4,5 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 4 with 5 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 4 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,9,10,11 with 5 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 4 with 2,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 $4.00
Total: $41.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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