2/29/20 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"[T]his day holds another secret—it contains one of those truly rare moments of delightful transience and light uncertainty that only exist on the razor edge of things, along a buzzing plane of quantum probability....A day of unlocked potential." - Vera Nazarian

Welcome to Leap Day, which comes with a friendly reminder to all of you who get paid salary rather than by the hour that you get to work an extra day in 2020 without receiving extra pay.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - Clm $5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Valid Storm (Morning Line 9-2)

B’s

# 1 Fred's Country Boy (ML 6-1)
# 2 Gray Donovan (ML 6-1)
# 3 Glitter Cat (ML 8-1)
# 10 Mine N Yours (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Nautical Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Just Another John (ML 4-1)
# 7 Suzdal (ML 20-1)
# 8 Skyswept (ML 15-1)
# 9 Senor Wilbur (ML 20-1)
# 11 One Thirty Nine (ML 6-1)
# 12 Fighting for Grace (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Stack Em High (ML 8-1) and # 14 High Powered (ML 3-1)

Valid Storm took the Place at this class level last time out, and Valid Storm could be quickest here.  Glitter Cat and Fred's Country Boy filled out the bottom two rungs of the Superfecta at this class level last time out.

Gray Donovan could rebound going third off the layoff.  Mine N Yours could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 She Wants More (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 2 Liner (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Lady Rubi (ML 15-1)
# 3 Delightful Diamond (ML 15-1)
# 5 La Coyota (ML 30-1)
# 6 Legend Bound (ML 50-1)
# 7 Timely Miss (ML 20-1)
# 8 Bay of Fables (ML 10-1)
# 9 Senctuaire Spot (ML 30-1)
# 10 My Girl Rocket (ML 4-1)
# 11 Kylies Charm (ML 5-1)
# 12 Mikayla Attack (ML 5-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 I'm Warning You (ML 5-1)

She Wants More and Liner are both taking a step up on the class ladder, having each defeated N2L company last time out (in separate contests).  Worth noting is that Kylies Charm is racing here above her conditions, as Kylies Charm has only one lifetime victory.  Interestingly enough, Kylies Charm's one lifetime Win was last time out, back in September, against non-Claiming Maidens at Belterra Park; so make what you will of her being offered for $5k here.  Anyway, I'll be using Kylies Charm as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field, excepting She Wants More and Liner.

RACE 7 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Howard of Luck (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1A American Solutions (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Queen's Palace (ML 10-1)
# 3 Gummer (ML 10-1)
# 5 Sonshine Pegasus (ML 15-1)
# 6 Reed O'Prado (ML 15-1)

# 7 Toddles (ML 30-1)
# 8 Spining Indyniably (ML 6-1)

# 10 Ingenico (ML 30-1)
# 11 Smuggler's Ghost (ML15-1)

Scratch # 9 Lucky Ole Sun (ML 6-1)

EDIT: Also scratch # 1 Artemus Citylimits (half of the Ramsey entry)

Of the three experienced runners in this field, Howard of Luck looks best, having finished in the Trifecta in each of his two career starts; last time out taking the Place behind a next out winner.  Of the debut runners, I'll take the two-for-one Ken & Sarah Ramsey entry of Artemus Citylimits (trained by Wesley Ward) and American Solutions (trained by Mike Maker).  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k N1Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Shape of You (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 1 Drama Run (ML 7-2)

# 2 Hey Hey (ML 8-1)

# 12 Old Centre (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Love the Power (Fr) (ML 15-1)

# 4 Constancia (ML 12-1)

# 6 I'm So Munny (ML 15-1)
# 7 Oldfashioned Angel (ML 10-1)
# 8 Rulelikecleopatra (ML 8-1)

# 9 Storm Temple Pilot (ML 6-1)
# 10 Blazing Diamond (ML 6-1)
# 11 Princess Daniela (ML 8-1)

This race is restricted to runners which have not won a race since August 29, 2019; but note that races where the runner was entered for $4k or less don't count; though scanning the Past Performances I don't see where that matters here.

Drama Run, Hey Hey, Shape of You, and Old Centre all exit a common race against N2Y company.  Shape of You took the Show in that contest; and Shape of You could benefit from the cutback in distance.  Drama Run was the Post Time Favorite in that event, and could rebound to a better effort.  Both Hey Hey and Old Centre seem to be positioned to move up as well.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 4 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,10 with 2,4 with 1,4 with 1,2,5,12 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7,8,9,11,12 with 4 with 4 with 5 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 4 with 5 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,10,11 with 5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 4 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11 $4.00

Total: $57.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo