“We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience.” - George Washington
For those who may be interested, a quick note to advise that the Super High Five in Saturday's nightcap will include a carryover of over $4500; so best of luck to those of you who may be swimming in that pool. And with that bit of news out of the way let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Yellen (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 3 Ms. Dragonette (ML 12-1)
# 7 Myeerah (ML 10-1)
# 11 Miss Eliana (ML 20-1)
# 12 Sally O'Brien (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Slainte (ML 20-1)
# 4 Fixer Upper (ML 8-1)
# 5 Keep This Kitten (ML 8-1)
# 6 Occasion (ML 10-1)
# 8 Honorable Memory (ML 5-1)
# 10 Lele (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 9 Momos Humor (ML 12-1) as well as the Also Eligibles, # 13 Ithaca Falls (ML 3-1) and # 14 Sway to Go (ML 8-1)
These are three year old fillies, and the long and short of this analysis is that I don't think much of the experienced runners in this field. Therefore I'll be using just one who has competed before, the Wesley Ward trained Yellen, who I think could benefit from the turnback in distance. My "B" Selections are all four of the debut contestants in this group, while all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $30k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 My Sweet Baboo (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Time Warp (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Marcie's Candy (ML 8-1)
# 3 Stellar Stiletto (ML 6-1)
# 5 C J S Suzie Byu (ML 15-1)
# 6 Competitive Queen (ML 8-1)
# 7 Gift Wrapped (ML 8-1)
# 8 Heaven Escape (ML 9-2)
My Sweet Baboo finally graduated last time out, after having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in four prior attempts. My Sweet Baboo is also shifting barns, having been claimed away from Trainer Mike Maker, and is now competing for Trainer Brett Santangelo. In my opinion, My Sweet Baboo, despite taking on winners for the first time, is the most talented runner in this field, and hopefully her victory last time out means that she's finally figured out the point of these exercises.
Time Warp took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Prince Arlo (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Rio Bueno (ML 8-1)
# 4 Pioche Gold (ML 6-1)
# 9 Junket (ML 4-1)
# 11 Creative Courage (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 All Hands On Deck (ML 9-2)
# 5 Dragster (ML 12-1)
# 6 Eyes On (ML 12-1)
# 8 Valycove (ML 8-1)
# 10 Top Credentials (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 7 Contraction (ML 8-1)
Prince Arlo has finished in the Exacta in each of his two prior starts over this track, and Prince Arlo should benefit from the class drop. Rio Bueno could be the one running best late.
Pioche Gold is getting some class relief here, and Pioche Gold got his picture taken the last time that he competed over this track. Junket is returning to a class level more in line with his ability. Creative Courage took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Cabot Trail (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 9 Wallet (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Twinklin Knight (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cj's Billy'sempire (ML 20-1)
# 5 Kickapoo (ML 6-1)
# 6 Harlan's Vador (ML 15-1)
# 7 Las Ana (ML 6-1)
# 8 Gatto Rosso (ML 15-1)
# 10 Kool Patriot (ML 30-1)
# 11 Howard Roark (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Raf (ML 20-1)
I was tempted to use Cabot Trail as my big ticket single in this leg; but ultimately I chickened out and decided to double the cost of my main play by making Wallet a "B" Selection. Cabot Trail took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Wallet looked much improved last time out while graduating by daylight. So I'll be going two deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 3 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,7,11,12 with 1,4 with 2,3,4,9,11 with 2,9 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,6,8,10 with 4 with 3 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 3 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1,5,6,8,10 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 3 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11 $4.00
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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