2/12/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“I'm a success today because I had a friend who believed in me and I didn't have the heart to let him down.” - Abraham Lincoln

Saturday's card in Florence, Kentucky features a pair of Listed Stakes which were originally scheduled to have been run in January, but were postponed due to weather.  Since both events have found their way onto the Final Four contests on this Super Bowl Eve card, I'll be looking over (as opposed to over looking) each of them below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 7 - (F) The Valdale $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 6 Marissa's Lady (Morning Line 1-1)

B's

# 4 Bubble Rock (ML 7-5)

C's

# 1 Beautiful Empire (ML 6-1)
# 2 Zawish (ML 12-1)

# 3 Murgatroyd (ML 30-1)

# 7 Royal County (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Tap Dancing Lady (ML 15-1)

As can be seen above, I'm not anticipating any shockers in this event.  As can also be seen above, I'm taking a bit of the coward's way out by using both of the main contenders on the main ticket, rather than trying to choose one over the other.

Marissa's Lady has done nothing wrong in her three race career for Trainer Billy Morey; and Marissa's Lady has demonstrated that she can win from midfield or from up on the pace.  Bubble Rock, trained by Brad Cox, got knocked around pretty good last time out in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Providing that beating didn't make her gun shy, the only question with Bubble Rock is is her form will carryover from the turf to the synthetic.

So hopefully they'll be no surprises in this leg, as I'm using the two best runners in this event on my main ticket, and all other entrants as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Thefabulous Moolah (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Quaria Thunder (ML 7-2)

# 7 Schlofitz (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Split Decision (ML 20-1)

# 4 Miss Invincible (ML 15-1)
# 5 La Neblina (ML 12-1)
# 6 Scartini Martini (ML 10-1)
# 8 Daniella's Cause (ML 12-1)
# 9 Bodacious Baby (ML 12-1)

# 10 Lantern's Candy (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 11 Justastar (ML 10-1)

Thefabulous Moolah drops in for a tag for the first time, and Thefabulous Moolah looks well meant here.  Quaria Thunder and Schlofitz are both making their second career starts after having performed well in their respective debuts.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - The Forego $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Visitant (ML 1-1)

B's

# 4 Divine Leader (ML 7-2)

# 7 Sir Alfred James (ML 9-5)

# 8 Race Driver (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Spectacular Gem (ML 30-1)
# 2 Pole Setter (ML 30-1)

# 3 Majestic Valley (ML 50-1)

# 5 Three Technique (ML 15-1)

# 9 Iwillpersevere (ML 50-1)

Visitant, trained by Billy Morey, has won four of his five career starts over this track; and Visitant demonstrated last time out that he was over whatever ailed him in his run in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster back in June.  Divine Leader brought his dirt form with him in his synthetic debut last time out, and if Divine Leader can improve on that effort then he must be considered a contender today.

Sir Alfred James had a rough go of it last time out in the $100k Duncan F Kenner; a smoother trip today should put Sir Alfred James right into the mix.  Race Driver, a well beaten Place behind Visitant last time out, can win from anyway on the track; which could prove useful today, as there's a very real possibility of a pace meltdown in this event.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - Md $5k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Sky Bolt (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Pro Bono (ML 7-2)

# 6 C F V Nobodycares (ML 10-1)

# 8 Keep Scrolling (ML 15-1)

# 9 Bullbriar (ML 20-1)

# 10 Tempesta (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 My Pal Johnny (ML 8-1)

# 2 Little Cairo (ML 12-1)

# 5 Barbarino (ML 10-1)

# 7 White Silver Sands (ML 30-1)

# 11 Blowdacoalwhistle (ML 15-1)

# 12 King T'challa (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Lasttraintoboston (ML 15-1) and # 14 Intend (ML 6-1)

This is the lowest claiming rank on the grounds; it's a five furlong sprint; and none of these entrants finished in the money last time out.  So, yeah, I'm expecting this event to have a little chaos.

Sky Bolt ran out of gas last time out after taking the Place in each of his prior two races.  Perhaps the shorter distance will prove to be to Sky Bolt's liking.  Pro Bono has been steadily dropping in class in an attempt to find a level at which he can win.  Perhaps having Rafael Bejarano on his back for the first time will give Pro Bono what he needs to graduate.

C F V Nobodycares is dropping into this class level for the first time.  If everything falls apart up front, C F V Nobodycares could be the one running best late.  Keep Scrolling showed good early speed in each of her two prior tries over this main track.  Perhaps Keep Scrolling will get a jump on the boys today and they'll just watch her backside as she gets under the wire first.

Bullbriar didn't even bother to finish in his two tries at routing.  Perhaps Bullbriar will find five furlongs much more to his liking.  Tempesta is dropping in for the cheapest tag of his career; maybe the five year old gelding proves that the fifteenth time is the charm.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 2 with 6 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2,3,7 with 4,6,7,8 with 3,4,6,8,9,10 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,7 with 2 with 6 with 3 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 6 with 3 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 1,2,3,5,9 with 3 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 6 with 1,2,5,7,11,12 $3.00

Total: $84.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 9:16 EST / 6:16 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo