The $100k Wintergreen Stakes, a one mile event for older fillies and mares, is Saturday's featured race in Florence, KY. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) The Wintergreen $100k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Breeze Rider (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Runway Dreamer (ML 50-1)
# 2 Rogue Too (ML 15-1)
# 2 Rogue Too (ML 15-1)
# 3 Ya Beauty (GB) (ML 30-1)
# 5 Alydiva (ML 4-1)
# 6 Lady Lawyer (ML 6-1)
# 7 Fate Factor (ML 12-1)
# 8 Zamzam (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lady Lawyer (ML 6-1)
# 7 Fate Factor (ML 12-1)
# 8 Zamzam (ML 30-1)
# 9 Josie (ML 10-1)
# 10 Wait for Nairobi (ML 5-1)
# 10 Wait for Nairobi (ML 5-1)
# 11 Natalies Charm (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 12 Ambassador Luna (ML 15-1)
If you're gonna single, might as well do it in the very first leg and get it over with. I spent a lot of time considering which price horses should also be included on my main ticket. For example, Alydiva, winner of the $100k Likely Exchange over this track last time out, looks to be in top form and can be expected to improve. Wait for Nairobi, Place finisher in the $100k Wishing Well, and Natalies Charm, are two more that could certainly pull the upset today.
But ultimately I decided that Breeze Rider is a legitimate Favorite in this contest, and adding other runners to the main ticket in this leg would not be money well spent. At least, in my humble opinion. So it's Breeze Rider solo on the main ticket this leg, with all other entrants being used as backup "C" Selection.
RACE 6 - OC 50k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Headline Report (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 1 Twenty Four Mamba (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Ready Pursuit (ML 12-1)
# 3 Stonevicious (ML 9-2)
# 4 Speighty War (ML 15-1)
# 6 Nay Say (Ire) (ML 5-2)
For the record, none of these runners are in for a tag. Headline Report is the class horse in this field, and Headline Report projects to be the lone speed in this contest. A legitimate argument could be made that Headline Report should be a single on my main ticket.
But Headline Report will be doing a few things for the first time Saturday. This race will be the first time that Headline Report will be competing on a synthetic surface. This will also be the first race in Headline Report's career that he will be running without Jockey John Velazquez on his back. This contest will be the first time that Headline Report has to travel eight furlongs. Finally, Headline Report will be running for the first time in his career without blinkers.
So all the above led me to the conclusion that using Headline Report solo on the main ticket was not the way to go. Twenty Four Mamba took the Place in the $100k Leonatus over this main track last time out. So it'll be two deep for me in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Arronautic (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 The Gatekeeper (ML 6-1)
# 7 Makin Bank (ML 12-1)
# 10 Monologue (ML 5-2)
# 11 Robust (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Frosty Dreams (ML 20-1)
# 3 Master Lea (ML 20-1)
# 3 Master Lea (ML 20-1)
# 4 Southern Sense (ML 12-1)
# 5 Sir Clouseau (ML 10-1)
# 5 Sir Clouseau (ML 10-1)
# 8 Southern Anthem (ML 20-1)
# 9 Shannonrun (ML 10-1)
# 12 Box of Joe (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 1A Formation (ML 3-1)
Arronautic and The Gatekeeper, trained by Brad Cox and Mark Casse, respectively, are first time starters sired by Arrogate, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking, as well as at a route distance. Makin Bank didn't have an easy go of it last time out, and should be given another shot, especially with the added distance.
Monologue, a son of Runhappy, may improve with the surface switch. Robust ran well enough in his debut last time out once he realized that there was a race going on and that he was in it. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Smuggler's Ghost (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Improbable Story (ML 20-1)
# 2 Winging Ways (ML 7-2)
# 4 Spend Benjamins (ML 3-1)
# 6 Drink (ML 6-1)
# 7 Topping (ML 6-1)
C's
# 8 Try Try Again (ML 30-1)
# 9 Frontana (ML 6-1)
# 11 North Elkhorn (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 5 Call West (ML 15-1) and # 10 Onward (ML 20-1)
This race is restricted to runners which have not won two races since August 26, 2021; but note that races where the runner was entered for $4k or less don't count.
Smuggler's Ghost is actually racing above his conditions, as Smuggler's Ghost does not have any victories since June 11, 2021. But Smuggler's Ghost appears to be in top form, and Smuggler's Ghost's last two defeats were by just a nose and neck.
Improbable Story could move up with the drop in class. Winging Ways won by daylight over this track at today's distance last time out.
Spend Benjamins is being reunited with Jockey Gerado Corrales, who was on his back the last time that Spend Benjamins got his picture taken. Drink was victorious routing over this track last time out; and Drink could do well with the turnback in distance.
Topping is another in this field that won by daylight last time out over this track last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 1 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5 with 1,6,7,10,11 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 5 with 1 with 3 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 2,3,4,5,8,9,12 with 3 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 1 with 8,9,11 $1.50
Total: $43.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:14 EST / 5:14 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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