The Road to the Kentucky Derby goes through Southern California Sunday, as the Grade 3 Robert B Lewis for three year olds is the card's featured race. So seven days before Super Bowl LVI arrives on the scene at the former Hollywood Park, a place where champions truly shined, let's see if I can shine some light on this final four sequence, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Magnificent Ride (Morning Line 5-1)
B's
# 1 Over Regulated (ML 6-1)
# 3 Syzslak (ML 6-1)
# 4 Dick Best (ML 7-2)
# 5 Quick Buck (ML 5-2)
C's
6 Heaven's Music (ML 3-1)
7 The Sandy Surprise (ML 10-1)
Note that this contest is restricted to California bred or California sired Maidens; so while Syzsiak is actually a Washington bred colt, since Syzsiak's sire, Danzing Candy stands in California (Rancho San Miguel, to be precise) Syzsiak is eligible to run in this contest.
Magnificent Ride wanted no part of the turf in his debut last time out. Magnificent Ride has shown that he can run on the main track in the morning, as evidenced by his bullet gate work on January 17. Now it's just a question as to whether or not Magnificent Ride can repeat that effort in the afternoon.
I'm using all the first time starters as "B" Selections, with the exception of The Sandy Surprise. Heaven's Music was a borderline decision. Ultimately I decided to leave Heaven's Music off the main ticket, as I feel Heaven's Music, who has failed three times in his eight race career as the Post Time Favorite, simply needs to be put in against cheaper stock in order to graduate.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Little Miss Ellie (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Taming the Tigress (ML 6-5)
C's
# 3 Donut Girl (ML 12-1)
# 5 Northern Gem (ML 8-1)
# 6 Righteously (ML 6-1)
# 7 Wishtheyallcouldbe (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 2 Blackjack Berry (ML 15-1)
For those who note such things, Blackjack Betty and Donut Girl are the two entrants that are eligible to be claimed for the $20k price tag. This is somewhat interesting because Blackjack Betty, who has had only two career starts, is eligible to run here sans tag. This is one of those times that I wish that horse racing had press coverage similar to other sports in the United States, so that someone would ask the connections why they've chosen to go this route. EDIT - Blackjack Betty has been scratched by the track veterinarian, which perhaps helps explain why her connections were so eager to sell her off via the claim box.
Little Miss Ellie didn't show much in her one prior turf try; but I'm going to forgive that result as Little Miss Ellie did not get the best of trips that day. Little Miss Ellie certainly fits well here on class; so if Little Miss Ellie can bring her dirt form onto the grass with her, then Little Miss Ellie could be the one getting her picture taken when this one is over.
Taming the Tigress certainly looks best here, as evidenced by the 6-5 Morning Line odds. But Taming the Tigress has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three races; and Taming the Tigress has yet to cross under the wire first when competing on the turf. Taming the Tigress is much too good to leave off the big ticket, in my opinion; but if I was playing this race alone, it is unlikely that I would use Taming the Tigress in the top position in any exotic wagers.
So it's two deep for me on the main ticket in this leg, with all others to be used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - The Robert B Lewis (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Messier (ML 6-5)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Sir London (ML 9-5)
# 3 Cabo Spirit (ML 8-1)
# 3 Cabo Spirit (ML 8-1)
# 4 Wharton (ML 4-1)
# 5 Happy Jack (ML 6-1)
# 5 Happy Jack (ML 6-1)
Kentucky Derby points are on the line in this event, and all but one of these runners will receive at least one point for their efforts today.
In my opinion, the Bob Baffert trained Messier, making his 2022 debut, is just too good not to use as a single in this leg. Messier was convincing in his graduation, which is Messier's one prior race over this track. Messier was the clear winner in the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar, and the Place runner in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby. I expect the shorter stretch drive at Santa Anita compared to Los Alamitos will work to Messier's advantage.
So it's Messier solo on the big ticket for this contest. I'll be using all other entrants as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Alw 25000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Principe Carlo (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 4 I'm Corfu (ML 6-1)
# 5 Smileforme (ML 15-1)
# 6 Teton Valley (ML 4-1)
# 8 Sea to Success (ML 20-1)
# 9 Truth Seeker (ML 15-1)
# 9 Truth Seeker (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Admirably (ML 4-1)
# 2 Joe Don Looney (ML 12-1)
# 2 Joe Don Looney (ML 12-1)
# 3 Rookie Mistake (ML 5-1)
For those accustomed to playing Starter Allowance races in California, note that this contest has no restrictions with regard career victories. So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $25k or less this year, last year, or the year before, is eligible to run here.
Principe Carlo is a stakes winner in the California bred restricted ranks. While I can't say with any degree of certainty just how a Cal-bred stakes compares to an open company Starter Allowance in terms of class, I do feel confident that Principe Carlo is not worse here. However, I think it's a good idea to spread some in this leg.
I'm Corfu, Teton Valley, and Truth Seeker are all getting significant class relief in this contest. Smileforme is going first off the claim for Trainer Lorenzo Ruiz, who tends to do well with such.
Sea to Success could be the early leader despite the outside draw; and Sea to Success has run well in the past over this main track. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 with 4,5,6,7,8,9 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 4 with 1 with 7 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,6,7 with 1 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 2,3,4,5 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 1,2,3 $1.50
Total: $37.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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