Weather has created some difficulties this holiday weekend for those who are fans of thoroughbred horse racing in Southern California, as Santa Anita has cancelled their card for Saturday, January 14, and Monday, January 16 (as I type this, Santa Anita is still optimistic that they will be running on Sunday). Meanwhile, in Florence, KY, providence has brought good weather, along with a nice card featuring the $125k Likely Exchange for older fillies and mares. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Safe Travels (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 San Nicola Star (ML 3-1)
# 7 Taperinea (ML 5-1)+
# 9 Moonlight Rain (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Top Hat Boss (ML 20-1)
# 2 I Likem (ML 12-1)+
# 2 I Likem (ML 12-1)+
# 4 Singsong Bird (ML 12-1)+
# 6 Miss Super Saint (ML 20-1)
# 8 Narrows Bridge (ML 20-1)
# 11 Forglo (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 3 Clever Tale (ML 12-1)
As can be seen by my selections, I expect this race to be competitive, yet formful. Still, all runners are being used in some capacity in this leg, because I didn't wake up this early on a Saturday just to be knocked out in the first round.
RACE 6 - ALW N3L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Lucci (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Purple Dream (ML 3-1)+
C's
# 2 Gallant Guy (ML 20-1)
# 4 Unpredictable Bay (ML 4-1)+
# 5 Johny's Fireball (ML 8-1)+
# 6 Holiday House (ML 15-1)
# 7 Stubbornkindafella (ML 15-1)
# 8 Willtorun (ML 7-2)
# 7 Stubbornkindafella (ML 15-1)
# 8 Willtorun (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 9 Zoombie (ML 20-1)
Another contest that I expect to be formful, though much less competitive than its immediate predecessor. That's primarily because the Wesley Ward trained Lucci had a very fine work over this track last Saturday, suggesting that he is ready to roll off the extended layoff, as well as demonstrating that Lucci's turf form should carryover to the synthetic surface.
Still, I chose not to single Lucci; because while Lucci has worked well over this track, Purple Dreams has shown an affinity for this surface under actual gameday conditions. If Purple Dreams can repeat either of his two prior tries over this main track, the Purple Dreams will be the one getting his picture taken when this contest is completed.
With that, I think that two deep on the main ticket gives me sufficient coverage for this leg. But, perhaps out of laziness, as I did in the opening leg, I've chosen to use every runner in this field in some capacity. Just in case.
RACE 7 - (F) The Likely Exchange $125k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Kate's Kingdom (ML 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Temper Time (ML 6-1)
# 3 Maybe Later (ML 5-1)
# 5 Grand Ave Girl (ML 6-1)
# 10 Fair Game (ML 8-1)
# 3 Maybe Later (ML 5-1)
# 5 Grand Ave Girl (ML 6-1)
# 10 Fair Game (ML 8-1)
Nope; I'm not going to try to beat Kate's Kingdom. I just don't see anything in her form that I could seriously count as a strike against her. Kate's Kingdom has won over this track; she's won at today's distance; and she appears to be in top form. Kate's Kingdom has been defeating higher quality opponents while running better races than the rest of the field in this event.
Kate's Kingdom is pretty much the epitome of a legitimate Favorite. Because it's horse racing, where anything can happen, I've tossed in a few "C" Selections. But as far as the primary ticket goes, it's Kate's Kingdom solo in this leg for me.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $15k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Amazon Queen (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Eiswein (ML 15-1)
# 2 Aunt Ruth (ML 12-1)
# 7 Only Time (ML 5-1)+
# 10 Loma Vista (ML 2-1)
C's
# 8 Trick Hat (ML 10-1)
# 12 Freedom Machine (ML 5-1)+
Scratch # 11 Knelcock (ML 20-1), but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 13 Tap the Line (ML 15-1) and # 14 Decree of Love (ML 3-1), because they're scratched as well.
I'm not against Morning Line Favorite Loma Vista, as is evidenced by her presence on my main ticket. I'm just of the opinion that Loma Vista is not the most likely winner of this contest. But it's probably a moot point, as I think it's very unlikely that Loma Vista emerges from the gate as the Post Time Favorite.
As for prices in this leg, I was hoping that Knelcock would be the one to light up the tote board today. But Knelcock has been benched; so if I should need a price in this leg, I'll be looking to either Only Time early or Eiswein late. Or maybe Aunt Ruth will shock the crowd. Anyway, those of you who enjoy playing the intra-race exotics should have a lot of fun with this contest.
Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:
And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 3 with 6 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 7,10 with 1,3 with 6 with 7,9 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,9,10 with 1,3 with 6 with 1,2,7,9,10 $20.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 1,3 with 6 with 7,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7,10 with 4,5 with 6 with 7,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7,10 with 1,3 with 6 with 12 $2.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,11 with 3 with 6 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,6,7,8 with 6 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3 with 1,3,5,10 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3 with 6 with 8 $0.50
Total: $45.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 2:45 EST / 11:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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