“Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard, solid thinking. There is an almost universal quest for easy answers and half-baked solutions. Nothing pains some people more than having to think.” - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
Santa Anita may have cancelled their card, but California is not without thoroughbred racing this holiday Monday, as Golden Gate Fields is up and running. So without further ado let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Jaycee (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 5 Nan Elizabeth (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Tiz a Tiger (ML 10-1)+
# 3 Simply Perfect (ML 30-1)
# 4 Miss Arrowhead (ML 5-2)+
# 7 Tropicana Girl (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 6 Austrian Navy (ML 7-2)
Going through Monday's sequence, I found myself finding very little to dislike about most of the short priced Morning Line Favorites. While that would cause many to pass on the sequence, I'm optimistic that I can get a profit from either having a low paying winning play multiple times, or perhaps getting lucky with one of my backup tickets. Either way, there was a conscious effort on my part to make this play as inexpensive as possible. Yes, I know, not spending any more than necessary on a play is always the goal; but normally a play will include an expectation of chaos breaking out in at least one of the legs in the sequence. I'm not seeing that here today. Well, not really.
So having said all that, why am I doubling the cost of the main ticket by including Nan Elizabeth? Primarily I like that Nan Elizabeth, despite being lightly raced, knows where the winner's circle is at this track, having visited it twice in just five tries. I also think that Nan Elizabeth, who prefers to come from behind, will get a favorable pace set up today. So it's two deep for me in this leg on the main ticket. Also note that, in this leg and the three which follow, that everyone in the field is being used in some shape or form.
RACE 7 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Dallas Alice (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Pretty Thirsty (ML 8-1)+
# 3 Night Cruiser (ML 15-1)
# 4 She's So Fancy (ML 10-1)+
# 5 Lily Pad Lake (ML 6-1)
# 6 Forever Lovely (ML 12-1)+
# 7 Forest Acclamation (ML 4-1)
# 8 Parting Ways (ML 3-1)+
Dallas Alice is one of the entrants that I had in mind when I said that there's very little to dislike about the short priced Morning Line Favorites in this sequence. Granted, there are some upset possibilities in this field; indeed, one could make a case for several that I will not be adding to my main ticket. I am simply of the opinion that Dallas Alice has a very strong likelihood of winning today; and if Dallas Alice wins today, I don't want to be sitting here having invested a significant amount in my play. So it's Dallas Alice solo on my main ticket.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 50k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Sally's Sassy (ML 9-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Electric Lettuce (ML 7-2)+
# 3 Thread Count (ML 9-2)
# 5 Rousing Jewel (ML 5-2)+
# 6 Majestic Oops (ML 12-1)
# 7 Ketanji (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Patsy Montana (ML 15-1)
For those who note such things, Ketanji is the only runner in this field that will be competing with the $50k price tag on her head.
Compelling cases can be made for the inclusion on the main ticket of virtually all entrants in this field who are not Sally's Sassy. But therein is the problem; for once you open that floodgate, where do you close it? For example, other than via coin toss, if I was to add Rousing Jewel to the main ticket because she has a prior victory at this class level, then what's my excuse for not including Majestic Oops, who also has a prior win at this class level? Or, for that matter, why wouldn't I also include Electric Lettuce, who took the Place at this class level last time out, and who also won for fun in her only other prior race (besides last time out) over this main track?
In my opinion, Sally's Sassy has a clear edge over the rest of this field. Not an overwhelming edge; but a clear one. And since I just singled a 2-1 Morning Line runner in the previous leg, that means that, should Sally's Sassy win this event, the sequence is unlikely to produce a juicy payout. So Sally's Sassy goes solo onto my main ticket in this leg.
RACE 9 - Alw 50000s N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Big Spin (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 3 Gabby Hayes (ML 6-1)+
# 6 Rio King (ML 8-1)
# 7 L'Enfant Dit (ML 15-1)+
C's
# 1 You Kidding Me (ML 3-1)+
# 2 Asano's Back (ML 15-1)
# 4 Sproston (ML 6-1)
# 5 Explain This Audit (ML 8-1)
# 10 Auspicious Style (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 9 Midnight Metal (ML 12-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total.
As can be seen, this is my spread race, the contest where I sought some coverage. This is because, in my opinion, the Morning Line Favorite, You Kidding Me, is quite vulnerable, as You Kidding Me has been hanging around this class level for quite awhile without finding his way to the winner's circle. So You Kidding Me is excluded from my main ticket; a few prices are added in his place; and, well, we'll see what comes to pass.
Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:
And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 3,7,8 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 1 with 4 with 3,6,7,8 $4.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 4 with 3,7,8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,6,8 with 4 with 3,7,8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2,5 with 3,7,8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 1 $0.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1 with 4 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,7 with 4 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 3,6,7 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 2,4,5,10 $2.00
Total: $26.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:20 EST / 3:20 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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