1/25/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence.  Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.  Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.  Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts.  Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent." - Calvin Coolidge

Having been unable to decide on a big ticket single in my prior attempts at Turfway Park's Pick Five, I was able to find, not one, but two on Wednesday evening's card.  Unfortunately, that number was halved by the scratch of the Jonathan Wong trained # 10 Cast No Stone in the nightcap.  Still, I like that hand I'm holding; though I really need to start getting the cost of these plays down.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $15k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Timely Secret (ML 10-1)

B's

# 13 Her Time Is Now (ML 7-2) +

C's

# 1 Satis (ML 9-2) +

# 7 Simpering Smile (ML 7-2) +

# 11 Marsanne (ML 4-1)

# 12 Fast Gal (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 2 Vivi Brass (ML 30-1); # 3 Madly (ML 15-1); # 6 Affront (ML 6-1); # 8 Heavenly Hash (ML 8-1); # 9 One Stormy Lady (ML 30-1); # 10 Rhythm Forever (ML 30-1); and # 14 Midnight Society (ML 8-1)

If not for the change of barn, Her Time Is Now would almost certainly be a big ticket single for me.  No offense to Trainer Sergio Baez, who claimed Her Time Is Now in her debut last time out; but running his stable on synthetic surfaces is not how Baez puts food on his table.

In my opinion Her Time Is Now still deserves to be highly regarded here based upon how well she ran in her debut; but I'm going to put the class dropping Timely Secret on the top of my Selections.  And if Timely Secret is hovering anywhere near his Morning Line Odds of 10-1, or for that matter even at odds half that, I anticipate backing up my play here with a Win wager on Timely Secret.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Friction (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Luna Moth (ML 8-1)

# 2 Puffin (ML 10-1)
# 4 Golden Runner (ML 15-1)

# 6 Cute Khloe (ML 4-1) +

# 7 Dogtown Diva (ML 15-1)
# 8 Dias Alegres (ML 3-1)

# 14 Lucky Ana (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 La Village Lumiere (ML 20-1) and # 13 Silent Revenge (ML 30-1)

Here's my big ticket single for the sequence, the Brad Cox trained Friction.  Those with larger bankrolls may wish to consider ranking the Jonathan Wong trained Ruis Racing owned Cute Khloe higher in their play than I did; but I'm comfortable with using Friction solo, while hedging by using the rest of the field on backup tickets.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Current Climate (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 9 Two Sixtyone (ML 4-1) +

C's

# 1 Code For Success (ML 3-1) +

# 3 Silver Stick Stair (ML 20-1)

# 4 Casa de Goat (ML 7-2) +

# 7 Ms Temptation (ML 10-1)

# 10 Halo of Fire (ML 4-1) +

For those who wish to know, the distaff runners in this field that are in for a tag are # 3 Silver Stick Stair; # 6 Easyonmyeyes (ML 15-1); and # 8 Current Climate.

Hey, another 10-1 Morning Line sitting on top of my selections!  Be nice if those were the Post Time odds.  Anyway, I'm against the short priced runners here (Code For Success; Casa de Goat; and Halo of Fire) because I'm not sold on their ability to handle the surface.  So we'll see how that works out for them (and for me).

RACE 7 - Clm $30k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 11 Blue Norther (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 2 Fort Defiance (ML 6-1) +

# 9 Beyblader (ML 12-1) +

# 10 Yono (ML 15-1)

C's

# 3 Lemonadeatthelatch (ML 8-1)

# 4 Hard Rye Guy (ML 6-1) +

# 5 Freeze Pop (ML 8-1) +

# 6 Summer Anthem (ML 10-1)

# 12 Jay Vee Bee (ML 8-1) +

Scratch # 1 Haloo (ML 4-1); # 7 Keen Response (ML 30-1); # 8 El Ahijado (ML 20-1); # 13 Button Boy (ML 10-1); # 14 Gun Rush (ML 30-1)

Needless to say, I consider this contest to be wide open.  I feel confident that, were this a Pick Four play rather than a Pick Five, that even more runners in this field would be on my main ticket.  Feel free to use as many as your bankroll will allow for this leg.  By the way, to further underline how wide open this event is, while that 9-2 price may look appetizing at the top of my selections above, that is, in fact, the Morning Line Favorite (among the unscratched runners).

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $7.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Brooklyn Dabomb (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 1 Green Bananas (ML 5-1)

# 12 Gin N Sin (ML 10-1)
# 13 Deise Delight (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 14 Rich Relations (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Friend (ML 20-1)
# 3 Awesome Lawson (ML 6-1)
# 5 Star of Shanghai (ML 12-1)

# 6 My Tommy Lee (ML 20-1)

# 7 She Ranup the Amex (ML 30-1)
# 8 Evie (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 4 U So Money Baby (ML 6-1) and # 10 Cast No Stones (ML 8-5)

As alluded to in the intro, the scratch of Cast No Stones turned this into a much more expensive play for me, as my main ticket went from one runner in this leg to five.  Still, it helps to look at the bright side of situations like this; and the bright side here is the potential to catch a much better payout now that the obvious Favorite has been removed from the sequence.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 5 with 9 with 8 with 11 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 8,9 with 2,9,11 with 9 $12.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 8,9 with 2,9,10,11 with 1,9,12,13,14 $40.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 1,7 with 9 with 8,9 with 2,9,11 with 9 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 6 with 8,9 with 2,9,11 with 9 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 1,4,10 with 2,9,11 with 9 $9.00

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 8,9 with 4,5,12 with 9 $6.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 11,12 with 9 with 8 with 11 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 1,2,4,7,8,14 with 8 with 11 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 9 with 3,7 with 11 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 9 with 8 with 3,6 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 9 with 8 with 11 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 $3.00

Total: $89.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 7:25 EST / 4:25 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo