RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 5 Kochees (Morning Line 4-1)
# 8 Monument (ML 9-2)
C's
# 6 Yankee Rebel (ML 9-2)
Cacau (ML 12-1) projects to be fast early, especially with the blinkers back on. But Cacau was clear early charging down the hill at this level two back and couldn't hold on; it's hard to see any special reason why today will be different.
Kochees took the Show in each of his last two turf sprints at this class level. Yankee Rebel has the talent to win at this level, but his career line on the Santa Anita grass (seven starts: one Win, three Place, two Show) suggests a willingness to settle for a minor share. Monument's form seems to have carried over to the turf quite well; at least the downhill version of the grass.
The 2012 version of Unusual Heatwave (ML 12-1) would have swallowed this field whole. But Unusual Heatwave's three starts last year show that he's no longer the same horse that he one was. Perhaps he can return to his prior form; but betting that he will today in my mind is more wishcasting than handicapping.
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bench Press (ML 4-1)
# 6 Remind Mee (ML 9-2)
C's
# 3 I Buy Gold (ML 15-1)
# 7 Bosque Angel (ML 12-1)
# 9 Heads South (ML 6-1)
# 12 Charbroiled (ML 8-1)
Bench Press enters today's contest with the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure, confirming that the class drop was what he needed to graduate. Remind Mee was able to take the Show at this level last time out charging down the hill; since Remind Mee doesn't show much in the way of turf pedigree, it's fair to presume that he will improve with the return to dirt.
I Buy Gold has been showing steady improvement; perhaps he takes another step forward today. Bosque Angel, Heads South, and Charbroiled all exit convincing maiden wins, with the latter two running for new barn that do quite well the first time off a claim.
RACE 8 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Sweet Swap (ML 5-2)
# 6 Zimmer (ML 5-1)
# 8 Lakerville (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Chiloquin (ML 6-1)
I may later regret not singling Lakerville in this one, as he has come back better than ever after missing all of 2013. But Lakerville's inability so far to win an open stakes does create some concern, and you never know when closers are going to get stuck in traffic; hence the inclusion of Sweet Swap and Zimmer as "A" selections. Chiloquin merits consideration due to his victory over Sweet Swap in Chiloquin's only prior effort charging down the hill.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Kid Rollins (ML 3-1)
# 5 A Little Luckier (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Cleverly Beverly (ML 9-2)
# 8 Itsabeautifulday (ML 4-1)
Kid Rollins took the Place at this level last time out, after taking the Show at this level in each of her two starts prior to that. Interesting that she's had Drayden Van Dyke on her back when he was a ten pound apprentice; a seven pound apprentice; and now a five pound apprentice. A Little Luckier drops down for a tag for only the second time in her career, and this is the cheapest that she's ever been offered for sale.
Cleverly Beverly took the Place at this level last time out. Will the seventeenth time be the charm? It could be today if she's willing to come off the pace as she did in a couple of her starts upstate. Itsabeautifulday will be making her first route attempt on real dirt; her pedigree (as expressed by her Tomlinson Distance Rating) suggests the extra distance will do her well.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 3,7,9,12 with 5,6,8 with 3,5 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 3 with 3,5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 1,6 with 5,6,8 with 6,8 $12.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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