RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Woodmans Luck (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Awesome Prospect (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Control Seeker (ML 9-2)
# 5 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 5-1)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 4-1)
# 9 Gallant Charm (ML 6-1)
It would be both appropriate and nice if the winner of the final race ever at Hollywood Park, Woodmans Luck, would be a winner on the first California Gold Rush card not held at that fabled track. But as Woodmans Luck is oh-for-four on the Santa Anita grass, and Trainer Vladimir Cerin is oh-for-his last fifteen when moving a runner from dirt to turf, it makes sense to spread a bit in this one.
Awesome Prospect took the show at this level over this turf course his last time out. His breeding, as expressed by his Tomlinson Distance Rating, suggests that he should improve with the added real estate. Control Seeker's best days are behind him; but he doesn't need his best to win at this level, and he should be forwardly placed early. Sizzlin' Joe is the only runner in this field with a win at today's distance on the grass.
Volkonsky has shown himself to be competitive at this level, and the Jockey/Trainer combo of Bejarano/Hollendorfer must be respected. Gallant Charm has taken the Show and been within two lengths of the winner in each of his last three races. Moving to state restricted company should help, as should the added distance.
RACE 9 - [S](F) The Melair $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 5-2)
# 2 Rovenna (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Magic Spot (ML 5-1)
# 5 Anniversary Kitty (ML 5-1)
Swiss Lake Yodeler crossed the wire in front of Rovenna in both The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes and The Soviet Problem Stakes last year. But it seems as if Rovenna has come further than Swiss Lake Yodeler since then, so she may turn the tables today.
Magic Spot was victorious in her last two outings, earning Beyer Speed Figures in each that fit well with the top contenders here. While both those races were on the turf, the daughter of Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem should be expected to handle a dirt track well. Anniversary Kitty is another making the move from turf to dirt with a sire that suggests that the surface switch should not be a problem.
RACE 10 - [S] The Snow Chief $250k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Tamarando (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Alert Bay (ML 3-1)
# 3 Aotearoa (ML 6-1)
# 4 Awesome Return (4-1)
# 8 Patriots Rule (ML 9-2)
Tamarando is the clear class of this field; but this is his turf debut, and he barely picked up his feet his last time competing; so it seems prudent to use some backup. Alert Bay has yet to finish out of the Exacta in his six race career, including a two turn contest on this turf course. Aotearoa is a stakes winner against open company on this turf course. Awesome Return has been showing steady improvement despite just the lone victory to his name. Patriots Rule is another in this field that could be charging late if the favorite doesn't fire.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Southern Sunrise (ML 2-1)
# 7 No Contingency (ML 7-2)
# 11 Jovita's Tuffy (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 4 Tribal Smoke (ML 8-1)
Southern Sunrise is an intriguing Morning Line Favorite, as he's competing above his conditions, as he has just one career victory in this non-winners of three contest. I expect Jockey Aaron Gryder to run and gun with Southern Sunrise on the rail and just see if he can hold on 'til the wire. No Contingency took the Place last time out against unrestricted claimers with more expensive price tags; he should appreciate the class relief today. Jovita's Tuffy has run just two career races on a fast dirt track, winning one and taking the Place in the other. Tribal Smoke could burn himself out in a speed duel with Southern Sunrise; but he could also sit right behind that one and get first run at the leader, an enviable position in a contest such as this.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,7,11 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5,6,9 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,7,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 4,5 with 6 with 1,7,11 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 2,3,4,8 with 1,7,11 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1,2 with 6 with 4 $2.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:43 EDT / 4:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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