4/5/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Santa Anita Derby Day in SoCal.  Since we're pressed for time I'll apologize now for the sparse analysis to follow.

RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Hoppertunity (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 California Chrome (ML 6-5)
# 6 Candy Boy (ML 9-5)

C’s

None

Can't choose between the three top contenders, so I'm just using them all.  Candy Boy is the one that needs to win in order to assure a spot in the gate at the Kentucky Derby.

RACE 9 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 9 Brave Act (ML 7-2)
# 10 Dancer Humor (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Gallant Charm (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tommy O (ML 8-1)
# 11 Patriots Rule (ML 12-1)

Brave Act won at this level on the dirt last out only to get DQ'd.  His effort two back while breaking his maiden on this turf course should be good enough to get the job done today.  Dance Humor has looked good in his two prior career starts running on some California grass.  Gallant Charm has the talent but is camera shy; otherwise he would be listed as an "A".

RACE 10 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Toledo Eddie (ML 4-1)
# 4 Explain (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 3 Too Fast to Pass (ML 8-1)
# 6 Seeking the Sherif (ML 6-1)

Toledo Eddie takes a step up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures are good enough and his margins of victory indicate he's proven all he can on the lower levels.  Explain was purchased for $62k his last time out and is now less than two months later being offered for $40k; not a move that inspires a lot of confidence, but it's not unheard of for connections to hope for a quick purse to cash in quick on their investment.

RACE 11 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 10 Joeandbetty'sbaby (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 1 Creditcardroulette (ML 6-1)
# 2 Indygo F M A (ML 6-1)
# 6 Deity (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 7 I'm Tops (ML 4-1)
# 12 Kerrilynn (ML 6-1)

Joeandbetty'sbaby defeated more expensive stock charging down this hill back in December; she'll appreciate the class relief here.  I doubt if anyone in this field can run late the way Joeandbetty'sbaby can; but it's a large field, so I'm using a bunch of backups just in case Jockey Rafael Bejarano gets stuck in traffic.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 pick P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 1,4 with 10 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 3,5,11 with 1,4 with 10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 3,6 with 10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 9,10 with 1,4 with 1,2,6,7,12 $30.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo