2014 Kentucky Derby Preview

"You can't expect to hit the jackpot if you don't put a few nickels in the machine." - Flip Wilson

We're almost there!  Just a few more days until we reach horse racing's biggest day, the first Saturday in May.  So, as is our custom each year (and as was forewarned in this blog's initial post) we're about to go dark, not to post again until sometime in the middle of next week.  Well, we won't be totally offline, since we're now on Twitter (@Jimbo_on_Tbreds) as we continue to take baby steps into the twenty-first century.

First things first: our chances of cashing our bet on the field in Futures Pool 1 look pretty good, as Ride On Curlin is currently the only non-field horse in that pool that will be running Saturday (if he should draw in, Pablo Del Monte would be another).  Of course we also lost the two bucks that we wagered on Rise Up in that pool; but, as I said, sometimes the heart overrules the head.  Anyway, barring a Ride On Curlin victory Saturday we'll make a profit on our Futures wagers; indeed, since it won't cost much to leverage the wager, I could put a Win bet on Ride On Curlin in order to guarantee a net gain; but I'll probably just stand pat in that area.

Second, let me point out some free resources currently available on the web.  Free Brisnet early Past Performances for the Kentucky Derby are available here, courtesy of FreePastPerformances.com.  As the Post Position draw won't be until Wednesday, the horses are ordered by the number of points that they earned in the Derby prep races.  Changes that can be made now include: 

1) Take out Ring Weekend, as he will not run Saturday.  This makes Commanding Curve number twenty in the rankings.

2) Make Martin Garcia the jockey for Chitu. 

3) Change the owner of General a Rod from J. Armando Rodriguez to Skychai Racing and Starlight Stables, as the horse was sold Monday.

This link leads to the 2014 Kentucky Derby Preview Packet from HorseBettingDirect.com.  The package contains horse by horse analysis for the Kentucky Derby entrants, along with race by race analysis of all the Kentucky Derby Prep Races, plus a few other tidbits.

While this next resource is also free, they do request your name and email.  This link leads to the Xpressbet.com Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide.  As you might guess from its title, this one is primarily a guide as to how to bet the Derby, as several expert analysts (including Mike Battaglia, Jon White, and Steve Byk) provide commentary and suggest wagering strategies based upon a mythical one hundred dollar bankroll.

Be sure to re-check the links for the above two guides as the week progresses for updates.

As for my own thoughts on the Kentucky Derby, I see it as primarily a referendum for or against California Chrome.  Unless he has the misfortune to draw either Post 1 or Post 2 (or, for that matter, not make it to the starting gate at all) California Chrome will go off as the Post Time Favorite; and rightly so.  California Chrome enters the Derby riding a four race winning streak, all by margins greater than five lengths, against some very stiff competition.  

In The Santa Anita Derby California Chrome defeated Hoppertunity, who had defeated Ride On Curlin and Tapiture in The Rebel Stakes.  California Chrome also defeated Candy Boy in The Santa Anita Derby; Candy Boy had previously defeated Chitu in The Robert B Lewis Stakes, Chitu's only career defeat.  In the California Cup Derby California Chrome defeated Tamarando, who had previously defeated Dance With Fate in the El Camino Real Derby.

In addition to all the above, California Chrome will be entering the Kentucky Derby with the best career speed figure along with the best last out speed figure (both Brisnet and Beyer).  So yeah, he's your Kentucky Derby favorite, and my wagering strategy for the race pretty much boils down to how much of him I'm going to use.

So is California Chrome a mortal lock?  Well, he could still draw the dreaded Post Position 1 (or PP2, for that matter).  That would certainly be a game changer.  It's also possible that weather could turn foul Saturday; since California Chrome has never competed on an off track, your guess is as good as mine as to how he would handle the mud.  And, of course, it's The Kentucky Derby, meaning that there's always the chance for something to go horribly, horribly wrong.

OK, so who else to turn to if not California Chrome?  Well, you could start with Dance With Fate, the horse who finished a length and a half in front of California Chrome in last year's Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.  If you check out the Xpressbet.com Wagering Guide linked above, you'll see that Jon Whilte thinks highly of this colt's chances.  Personally, I'll pass on Dance With Fate.  I believe that California Chrome has matured beyond Dance With Fate since they were juveniles; as noted above California Chrome has defeated the horse who defeated Dance With Fate; and, most telling of all, Dance With Fate's trainer Peter Eurton had no intention to run Dance With Fate in the Kentucky Derby, shipping him home to California until Dance With Fate's owners got Derby Fever and had the colt shipped back to Kentucky.

A runner I do expect to be using in some capacity is Danza, winner of The Arkansas Derby.  Many have pointed to the large speed figure Danza earned in that victory relative to his prior figures and have stated a belief that he will bounce off that effort.  While such is possible, my opinion is that Danza performed in that contest much better than he had previously because he was finally given the distance that he had been craving.  I don't know if Danza is better than California Chrome, but I do consider him to be a contender this coming Saturday, and will use him (at least a little) in the top spot.

Another horse I will be using at least a little in the top spot is Tapiture.  Remember what I wrote about Vicar's in Trouble prior to the Louisiana Derby?  Well, I believe the same applies to Tapiture here.  Tapiture, whose spot in the Kentucky Derby was already secured, took the scenic route around the Oaklawn Park oval in the Arkansas Derby, going four wide around the track before moving out even further in the stretch.  In other words, Tapiture ran that prep race like a prep race; a paid workout if you will, and finished out of the money for the first time in his career.  I expect Tapiture to be much improved over that "effort" this Saturday.

I was also very much impressed with the heart that Tapiture showed when taking the Place in The Rebel Stakes behind Hoppertunity.  Tapiture did not get a good trip in The Rebel, and was boxed in as the leaders came down the stretch.  So what did he do?  In a move reminiscent of Seattle Slew, Tapiture made his own hole, forcing his way out of his predicament by moving his rivals out of his way.  I love a horse with heart like that, and it's a trait that can come in quite handy when you're running in a field of twenty.

So I expect to be using those three on top; primarily California Chrome, but also a little of Danza and Tapiture.  For the vertical exotics, underneath those I figure to work in Hoppertunity, Intense Holiday, and Ride On Curlin.  Oh, and shame, shame (yes, multiple shames) on Churchill Downs for not having dime Superfectas on Derby Day, once again raising the minimum to a dollar on the first Saturday in May.  While one can understand their desire not to have their cashiers tied up punching all those ten cent wagers, there is no excuse for not offering the dime supers at the self-betting kiosks and online, where no cashiers are involved.

So soon I'll be making my annual trek to Vegas, though there will be some sadness in this year's journey.  I began making these yearly trips back in 2002, the year War Emblem won the Derby.  At that time our Derby Crew was just a trio: myself, my good buddy T, and JL, a friend of T's whom I had never before met until that 2002 weekend.  Yet you wouldn't have known that JL and I had never before met; because right off the bat he greeted and treated me as if we had been friends for life.  A gregarious man with a heart as big as all outdoors, JL currently finds himself traveling some bumpy roads in his life.  I have full confidence that he'll come through this bad trip alright, being the fighter that he is; but JL will have to scratch out of this weekend's activities, and I assure you that's much more my loss than his (as it is, I must confess, whenever any member of the crew is unable to make the sojourn).  So until we are able to get together again here's wishing all the best to JL, with the hope that he will come out of this better than he went in.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo