4/5/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Santa Anita Derby - # 5 California Chrome (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Patriots Rule (19.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Seeking the Sherif (3.90) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 Kerrilynn (4.30) - "C" Selection

While not a part of the Late Pick Four sequence, the results of Race 3 - The Echo Eddie Stakes play a key role in understanding Saturday's results; but more on that later.  First things first: we had 'em all, but not all together.  Had we played our picks caveman style we would have cashed.  But, of course, that wasn't really an option; for had we played it caveman style our play would have cost $180, well beyond what we budget for these forays.

No, the issue here isn't ticket structuring but better handicapping.  Ironically, our big mistake was in the one race where we had an "A" selection Win.  For while we had California Chrome we also had # 3 Hoppertunity (4.40) and # 6 Candy Boy (2.60) on our tickets as "A" selections.  In retrospect we should have recognized California Chrome as a standout based upon his field best last out Beyer Speed Figure along with the substantial margin of victory in his prior Wins; a set within which Saturday's five and a quarter length triumph fits right in.  Had we acknowledged such prior to the start of the sequence, we just might have found ourselves cashing tickets when the last leg was official.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Getting back to why I brought up The Echo Eddie Stakes: the results of that contest are key to appreciating that California Chrome was not simply taking advantage of an early speed bias on a dirt track that is known to more than occasionally favor frontrunners, especially on big event days.  The Echo Eddie Stakes, run earlier in the afternoon over the same dirt track as The Santa Anita Derby, had the following Trifecta:

WIN: # 5 Alert Bay (9.10)
PLACE: # 8 Life Is a Joy (7.10)
SHOW: # 3 Well Measured (9.50)

None of those three horses were in the top four at the half mile mark; and (as you can see by the Final Odds) none were especially well regarded by the betting public.  So the fact that those three crossed under the wire ahead of all others in Race 3 demonstrates that early speed was not ruling the day at Santa Anita Saturday.  Incidentally, congratulations to all who had that Trifecta and collected $359.90 for the one dollar wager.

Congratulations also to those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 11 / 6 / 12  along with its payout of $897.50 for the fifty cent wager.  May God bless you as you spend your winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo