"History is the version of past events that people have decided to agree upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte
And so we arrive at horse racing's Triple Crown; at least, 2020's version of the Triple Crown. But while things are different this year, they are not (as so many seem to be reporting) unique.
Like nearly everyone's 2020 income, the distance of the Belmont Stakes has been reduced; specifically from a mile and a half to a mile and an eighth. But this nine furlong distance is the same distance at which the Belmont Stakes was run twice previously, in 1893 and 1894. Also note that, while this is not the Triple Crown order that we are used to, this will not be the first time that the Belmont Stakes has been run prior to the Kentucky Derby. Indeed, there were eight Belmont Stakes run prior to the Kentucky Derby even coming into existence.
Anyway, the most important thing to take away from all this is that horse racing's Triple Crown is still the Triple Crown; and neither the distance nor the date in any way diminishes the luster from any one of its jewels. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 4 Strongerthanuknow (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 3 Single Verse (ML 8-1)
# 5 Winifred J (ML 6-1)
# 8 My Sassy Sarah (ML 5-2)
# 13 Ava K's Girl (ML 10-1)
# 14 Ancient Brown (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Mz Seb Pat (ML 20-1)
# 2 Anydayisherday (ML 50-1)
# 10 Light in the Sky (ML 8-1)
# 11 Canarsie Angel (ML 12-1)
# 12 Speightstown Gal (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Noble Jewel (ML 8-1); # 7 Tradeable (ML 30-1); # 9 Crater Rim (ML 30-1); along with the two Main Track Onlies, # 15 Overtime Olivia (ML 12-1) and # 16 Bustin Scones (ML 9-2)
Strongerthanuknow graduated by open lengths last time out at today's distance over this turf course, and is trained by Jorge Duarte, Jr, who tends to do well when placing his last out Maiden winners. Single Verse joins the barn of Trainer Rob Atras, who tends to do well with his new arrivals.
Winifred J has won previously over this turf course, and Winifred J could be the one leading the field early. Noble Jewel won her debut over this turf course, and Noble Jewel could move up with the cutback in distance.
My Sassy Sarah could move up with the drop down in class. Ava K's Girl could improve with the return to sprinting. Ancient Brown took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The Acorn (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Gamine (ML 1-1)
B's
# 5 Glass Ceiling (ML 20-1)
C's
# 2 Lucrezia (ML 9-2)
# 3 Water White (ML 10-1)
# 4 Casual (ML 3-1)
# 6 Pleasant Orb (ML 20-1)
# 7 Perfect Alibi (ML 5-1)
Gamine, trained by Bob Baffert, is a perfect two-for-two for her career; and Gamine could benefit from the reduction in real estate. Glass Ceiling, victorious in each of her last two starts, might be the speed of the speed in this field. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - The Jaipur (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 4 Pure Sensation (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Stubbins (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hidden Scroll (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Kanthaka (ML 10-1)
# 3 Texas Wedge (ML 4-1)
# 7 White Flag (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lonhtwist (ML 50-1)
Pure Sensation, making his 2020 debut, looks classiest here. Oleksandra (Aus) is a mare taking on the males; but not for the first time, as Oleksandra has defeated open company in the past. The only concern here is if Oleksandra will have enough pace to close into.
Stubbins, Show finisher last time out in the Grade 3 Daytona, can win from anywhere on the track. Hidden Scroll will be giving the turf another try, having stumbled at the start in his grass debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 8 Tiz the Law (ML 6-5)
B's
# 1 Tap It to Win (ML 6-1)
# 2 Sole Volante (ML 9-2)
C's
# 3 Max Player (ML 15-1)
# 4 Modernist (ML 15-1)
# 5 Farmington Road (ML 15-1)
# 6 Fore Left (ML 30-1)
# 7 Jungle Runner (ML 50-1)
# 9 Dr Post (ML 5-1)
# 10 Pneumatic (ML 8-1)
Tiz the Law, winner of four of his five career starts, including the Grade 1 Champagne over this main track last year, could be an easy victor here if he can duplicate either of his last two efforts at Gulfstream Park. Tap It to Win could be speed on the rail; while Sole Volante could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 1 with 4 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,8,13,14 with 1,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 1,2,8 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,10,11,12 with 1 with 4 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,6,7 with 4 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1 with 1,3,7,8 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1 with 4 with 3,4,5,6,7,9,10 $3.50
Total: $83.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 3:39 EDT / 12:39 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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