Once upon a time, Saturday was scheduled to be a big race day, featuring a Grade 1 contest for talented three year old runners. And then 2020 happened. Despite all that's going on in the world this year, Saturday is still scheduled to be a big race day featuring a Grade 1 contest for talented three year old runners; albeit on the opposite coast than was originally planned. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Authentic (Morning Line 4-5)
B's
# 6 Honor A. P. (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Friar's Road (ML 20-1)
# 2 Rushie (ML 8-1)
# 3 Shooters Shoot (ML 8-1)
# 4 Anneau d'Or (ML 15-1)
# 5 Azul Coast (ML 15-1)
My initial inclination was to single the Bob Baffert trained Authentic in this leg, as Authentic is coming off an open lengths victory over Place finisher Honor A. P. in the Grade 2 San Felipe. However, based upon comments by Jockey Mike Smith stating that Honor A. P. was not 100% for the San Felipe, as well as how greenly Authentic ran in the stretch while winning that contest, I decided to go two deep in this leg, while using all others as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - The Cinema $150k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Hariboux (GB) (ML 8-5)
B's
# 3 K P All Systems Go (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Heywoods Beach (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dominant Soul (ML 20-1)
# 6 Liar Liar (Ire) (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 2 Club Aspen (ML 6-1) and # 4 Constitutionaffair (ML 30-1)
Hariboux (GB) was victorious in the $100k Pasadena over this turf course back in February. K P All Systems Go enters this contest having won each of his last two races, including one at Saturday's distance. K P All Systems Go could also be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - The Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Midcourt (ML 2-1)
# 3 Higher Power (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Parsimony (ML 15-1)
# 4 Brown Storm (Chi) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Improbable (ML 2-1)
# 6 Tenfold (ML 6-1)
First things first: It's nice to see this event again being called the Hollywood Gold Cup. As to how I'm playing this leg, I went back and forth as to who should be my top pick for this contest before conceding that I could not choose between Midcourt and Higher Power. My personal opinion is that Higher Power is the superior athlete of the two. But Higher Power typically needs a race when coming off a layoff. Conversely, Midcourt will be running with blinkers off; and I'm not a big fan of major equipment changes for runners entered in a Grade 1 event.
While I could not decide between Midcourt and Higher Power, I have few concerns about leaving Improbable off the main ticket. Yes, Improbable can beat me here. But that's the problem with Improbable; he so often looks like he can win, but instead he disappoints. So I'll be using Improbable as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Li'l Grazen (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Baby Boo (ML 20-1)
# 2 Wishful (ML 8-1)
# 4 Silk From Heaven (ML 6-1)
# 5 Florentine Diamond (ML 12-1)
# 6 Time for Ebby (ML 4-1)
# 7 Homehome (ML 6-1)
# 8 Takethediamondlane (ML 5-1)
# 9 Dim Lights (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Were I so inclined, I'm sure that I could narrow this one down to where I was using only five or six runners for this leg. But considering that a third of this field disappointed as the Post Time Favorite their last time out, I think it's fair to say that this is a group that cannot be counted on to run to form. So it's everybody into the pool for this leg, as I go "ALL" in on the big ticket.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 7 with 2,3 with 3 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3,7 with 2,3 with ALL $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5 with 7 with 2,3 with 3 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,5,6 with 2,3 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 7 with 1,4,5,6 with 3 $2.00
Total: $48.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:09 EDT / 4:09 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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