The Road to the Kentucky Derby passes thru New Mexico Sunday; Sunland Park, to be exact, just minutes away from downtown El Paso, Texas. Note that this sequence isn't The Late Pick Four, as Sunday's card contains thirteen races; so there is another Pick Four on the menu, for those who prefer a sequence not containing the Harry Henson Handicap. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The All-Stakes Pick Four at Sunland Park.
RACE 8 - (F) The Harry Henson $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Escape Clause (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 4 Clever Serve (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Baydar (ML 6-1)
# 3 Jet Away Sue (ML 8-1)
# 5 The Incident (ML 8-1)
# 7 Super Humor (ML 10-1)
# 9 Performance Review (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 1 Heavenhasmynikki (ML 2-1) and # 8 Just a Smidge (ML 4-1)
Needless to say, the scratch of Morning Line Favorite 1 Heavenhasmynikki (who is expected to run in the Beholder Mile next Saturday) certainly changes the complexion of this event. Escape Clause showed very little last time out in the Grade 2 Santa Monica after winning the Grade 3 La Canada for fun two starts back. So the question with Escape Clause is can she bounce back off that disappointing effort.
Clever Serve could improve going third off the layoff. Clever Serve also looks to be the one that will be running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Sunland Park Oaks $200k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Chasing Yesterday (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Victim of Love (ML 4-1)
# 2 Parade of Roses (ML 10-1)
# 3 Figure (ML 12-1)
# 4 Peaceoutyourhonor (ML 30-1)
# 5 Backflash (ML 6-1)
# 6 K P Slickem (ML 8-1)
# 8 Enlisting (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 9 Bellafina (ML 7-5)
Another scratch of a Morning Line Favorite, as Bellafina's connections decide to keep her home in California. With that change, the Bob Baffert trained Chasing Yesterday, winner of the Grade 1 Starlet and making her 2019 debut, looks to be much the best here, and therefore will be my big ticket single, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Bill Thomas Memorial $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Chief Cicatriz (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Anyportinastorm (ML 4-1)
# 4 Classy Class (ML 10-1)
# 5 Secular Nation (ML 10-1)
# 8 Minister of Soul (ML 6-1)
# 9 All Out Blitz (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Limitation (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bokeelia Island (ML 15-1)
# 7 Blame Smarty (ML 20-1)
Chief Cicatriz won easily enough in his 2019 debut last time out to suggest that he's ready to pick up right where he left off last year. Anyportinastorm showed that he can handle the dirt well enough last time out by clearly winning the $100k Zia Park Sprint; but that was back in November, and it's possible that Anyportinastorm could need a race.
Classy Class and Secular Nation probably aren't classy enough for this bunch; but both ran well in their respective last out race, and I'm using few enough runners in the other contests that it makes sense to have them around to see if I can perhaps catch a price.
Minister of Soul has won four of his last five starts; though it may prove telling that the one bad outing in that sequence is also Minister of Soul's only prior try over this track. All Out Blitz could rebound going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Sunland Park Derby (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Mucho Gusto (ML 8-5)
B's
# 2 Anothertwistafate (ML 3-1)
# 5 Cutting Humor (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Hustle Up (ML 5-1)
# 4 Wicked Indeed (ML 6-1)
# 6 Walker Stalker (ML 15-1)
# 7 Pasamonte Man (ML 20-1)
# 8 Collusionist (ML 25-1)
# 10 Eye Cloud (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Diamond Blitz (ML 15-1)
The first thing to note is the name change for this event. Known as the WinStar Derby for the first half dozen years of its existence (2003 - 2008, inclusive), this contest has been called the Sunland Derby since 2009; but this year its official title is the Sunland Park Derby.
Mucho Gusto showed last time out in the Grade 3 Robert B Lewis that he can win by coming off the pace as well as on the front end. Anothertwistafate, winner of the El Camino Real Derby last time out, gets another chance to prove that he can be competitive on a real dirt track.
Cutting Humor, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in the Grade 3 Southwest last time out, could improve going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 7 with 3 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,8,9 with 1,2,5 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,7,9 with 7 with 3 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 with 3 with 1 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 1,6,7 with 1 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 3 with 3,4,6,7,8,10 $3.00
Total: $29.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:57 EDT / 2:57 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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