It's Big 'Cap Day; but, as I'm sure nearly all of you are already aware, racing has been cancelled indefinitely at Santa Anita. Hopefully the track testing which is currently underway in Arcadia will result in increased safety for horses and riders, and all necessary changes will be implemented prior to reopening. And if it's determined that one of those necessary changes is a return to a synthetic main track, then so be it; but if that is to be done, then let it be done because all available evidence points to that as a real solution, and not just a dramatic gesture designed to deflect public criticism.
In the meantime the world continues to turn, and horse continue to run around in circles. So with all that said let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $6.25k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Classic Champ (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 1 She's a Spy (ML 10-1)
# 5 Brilliant Richie (ML 8-5)
C's
# 3 Cutie Leah (ML 8-1)
# 6 Canaveral Bay (ML 20-1)
# 7 Ticketed (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 4 Boisterous Boy (ML 8-1)
I added the N2L designation to the race conditions above, even though it is not included in my copy of the Past Performances. I don't know if the N2L omission was due to a printing error, or if it was just an amazing coincidence that every entrant in this field has visited the Winner's Circle just once in their respective career; but either way, this event is for non-Winners of Two Races Lifetime.
Classic Champ is getting some much needed class relief. She's a Spy took a nice step forward in her first try around two turns last time out. Brilliant Richie goes first time for the barn of Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Aleda Lutz (ML 8-5)
B's
# 5 California Canter (ML 8-1)
# 10 Check Out (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Sarah's Smirk (ML 20-1)
# 3 Donveras Cat (ML 30-1)
# 4 Tamaraandtheboys (ML 7-2)
# 6 Thunder Woman (ML 20-1)
# 7 Sweet Susan B (ML 12-1)
# 8 Rebalation (ML 9-2)
# 9 Oligarchy (ML 20-1)
Aleda Lutz was within a length of the winner at the wire last time out against open (non-state bred restricted) company. Check Out and California Canter filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.
Tamaraandtheboys is one that you might want to give more prominence to in your play, as she's run well in each of her three career starts, all on different surfaces. Ultimately I decided against using Tamaraandtheboys on the big ticket as runners for Trainer Bob Hess Sr tend to need a race when returning from an extended layoff, as Tamaraandtheboys is. So I've placed her, along with the rest of the field, in the backup "C" Selection section.
RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Knust (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 King's Peak (ML 7-2)
# 4 King Eddie (ML 5-2)
# 5 Drinkin and Dialin (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Older Brother (ML 20-1)
# 6 Candy Crew (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bob's All In (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Wicked Ultimatum (ML 10-1)
Knust misses by just a neck of entering this contest with a three race winning streak. Knust is also going first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such.
King's Peak, coming off a daylight win last time out, re-joins the barn of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. King Eddie took the Place at this class level last time out, and could benefit from the shortened distance. King Eddie is also going first off the claim for Trainer Air Herbertson, who tends to do well with such.
Drinkin and Dialin's claim was voided last time out; otherwise this leg of the big ticket would be an even quartet of runners going first off the claim. Drinkin and Dialin was less than a length behind Knust at the wire last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Katie's Cowboy (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Concur (ML 2-1)
# 3 Mr. Gee's Journey (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Builder (ML 8-1)
# 4 Gryffindor (ML 15-1)
# 5 Indian Head Nickle (ML 20-1)
# 6 Royal Charm (ML 12-1)
# 7 Brioso (ML 8-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; with one exception: one win, and only one win, for $20k or less will not be considered when determining eligibility. For the record, Mr Gee's Journey and Katie's Cowboy are the only two runners in this field who have visited the Winner's Circle more than once.
Katie's Cowboy is two-for-four lifetime over this main track, and is going first off the claim for Trainer Ari Herbertson, who tends to do well with such. Concur ships in from downstate for Trainer Phil D'Amato, and could move up with the class drop. Mr. Gee's Journey took the Show at this class level behind a next out winner last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 7 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5 with 1,5,10 with 2,4,5,7 with 2,3,8 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,6,7 with 1 with 7 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 7 with 8 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 1,6,8 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 7 with 1,4,5,6,7 $2.50
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:05 EST / 4:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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