“Starting over is an acceptance of a past we can’t change, an unrelenting conviction that the future can be different, and the stubborn wisdom to use the past to make the future what the past was not.” - Craig D. Lounsbrough
Santa Anita was able to renew its meet Friday; and, thank the good Lord, all went well without incident. So as re-opening weekend continues, we turn our attention to Saturday's events, which features a quartet of Graded Stakes; two of which I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - (F) The Santa Ana (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A's
# 7 Zaffinah (Ire) (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 2 Streak of Luck (ML 3-1)
# 4 Poster Girl (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Elysea's World (Ire) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Stradella Road (ML 6-1)
# 3 Lynne's Legacy (ML 8-1)
# 5 India Mantuana (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 8 Tell Me More (ML 10-1)
Zaffinah (Ire) took the Show in the Grade 3 Megahertz last time out, and could move up with the increase in real estate. Streak of Luck, Place finisher in the Grade 2 Buena Vista last time out, is another that could improve stretching out.
Poster Girl (GB) ran incredibly well in the Wishing Well last time out; but, unfortunately, only after dumping Jockey Mike Smith to the ground. Elysea's World (Ire) could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Air Strike (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Pepe Tono (ML 12-1)
# 3 Popular Kid (ML 3-1)
# 6 Kenjisstorm (ML 6-1)
# 8 Nero (ML 9-5)
C's
# 2 Top of the Game (ML 12-1)
# 4 Sheer Flattery (ML 12-1)
# 5 El Huerfano (ML 12-1)
# 9 Morse Code (ML 15-1)
Air Strike, making his 2019 debut, fits well here on class, and should be able to get a nice staking trip. Pepe Tono has taken the Show at this class level in two of his last three races; but the rail draw does Pepe Tono no favors, as he has no early speed. I expect Pepe Tono and Popular Kid to be the ones running best late.
Kenjisstorm could improve with the class relief. Nero, trained by Bob Baffert, failed by a neck as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out. The concern with Nero is that he appears to need to be right on the pace in order to win; and there seem to be others in today's field who will be quicker than Nero out of the gate. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Beholder Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Marley's Freedom (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Secret Spice (ML 6-1)
# 2 Selcourt (ML 5-1)
# 3 Paradise Woods (ML 6-1)
# 4 Exuberance (ML 15-1)
# 6 Just a Smidge (ML 10-1)
# 7 Mopotism (ML 6-1)
I mentioned last weekend that Heavenhasmynikki, entered to run in the $100k Harry Henson at Sunland Park, had scratched from that contest with the expectation that she would run here instead. However, as you can see above, Heavenhasmynikki is not in this field; which is unfortunate.
Among those who are expected to run, Marley's Freedom looks to be much the best. So I'll be using Marley's Freedom as a single on the main ticket, with all others in this field slotted in as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 13 Holly Hundy (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Claudelle (ML 8-1)
# 2 La Shirimp (ML 3-1)
# 3 Harmless (ML 10-1)
# 5 Ameerah B (ML 8-1)
# 6 Cairo Kiss (ML 15-1)
# 7 Hello Bubbles (ML 7-1)
# 10 Enamored (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Crazy Sexy Munny (ML 20-1)
# 8 Shanghai Truffles (ML 20-1)
# 9 Confidently (ML 8-1)
# 12 Clochard Street (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 11 Heathers Grey (ML 20-1) and # 14 Posit (ML 4-1)
Holly Hundy showed good early speed routing on the flats last time out. Claudelle fits well with these on class, though Claudelle is trying the turf for the first time.
La Shirimp, making the first start of her 2019 campaign, ran well in her debut in Ireland last time out. Harmless was quick early in her first try charging down the hill last time out, and could be more relaxed today with the hood removed.
Ameerah B and Cairo Kiss are a pair of first time starters that could upset a field that seems to lack a true standout. Hello Bubbles has twice taken the Show at this class level. Enamored could improve with the freshening. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 7 with 5 with 13 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,7 with 1,3,6,7,8 with 5 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,13 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,5 with 7 with 5 with 13 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,4,5,9 with 5 with 13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 with 13 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 7 with 5 with 4,8,9,12 $2.00
Total: $89.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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