Saturday, March 13, 2021

3/13/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“And a step backward, after making a wrong turn, is a step in the right direction.” - Kurt Vonnegut Jr.

Half of Saturday's sequence in Arcadia is comprised of Graded Stakes, including the Grade 1 Beholder Mile, which features the 2021 debut of last year's Preakness Stakes winner Swiss Skydiver.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Oil Can Knight  (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 1 Terrible Ted (ML 12-1)
# 8 Black Storm (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Tobacco Road (ML 15-1)
# 3 Shane Zain (ML 12-1)
# 4 Rinse and Repeat (ML 8-1)
# 7 Horse Greedy (ML 6-1)
# 10 Awhitesportscoat (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 6 Owning (No Line) and # 9 Jan's Reserve (ML 5-1)

Oil Can Knight is priced to sell here, and Oil Can Knight should benefit from the massive drop in class.  Conversely, Terrible Ted looks to be terribly outclassed here; but Terrible Ted could be speed on the rail, and Terrible Ted just might steal this one on the front end.

Black Storm won by daylight against cheaper last time out, and Black Storm tends to run well over this main track.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Cistron (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Gregorian Chant (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 3 Bob and Jackie (ML 4-1)
# 7 Jolie Olimpica (Brz) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Barristan The Bold (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Sombeyay (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 6 Shashashakemeup (ML 12-1) and # 8 Sparky Ville (ML 15-1)

Cistron is the defending champ of this event, and Cistron should not be disadvantaged by the added half furlong.  Gregorian Chant (GB) ran well enough while winning the Clocker's Corner last time out that it's safe to presume that Gregorian Chant will be able the rise in class.

Bob and Jackie, Graded Stakes placed in each of his last three contests, may benefit from the cutback in distance.  Jolie Olimpica (Brz) took the Place in the Grade 3 Las Cienegas last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Beholder Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Golden Principal (ML 8-1)

B's

# 1 Swiss Skydiver (ML 8-5)
# 3 Harvest Moon (ML 5-2)
# 6 As Time Goes By (ML 4-1)

C's

# 5 Miss Stormy D (ML 20-1)
# 7 This Tea (ML 30-1)
# 8 Clockstrikestwelve (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Sanenus (Chi) (ML 4-1)

Golden Principal, Graded Stakes placed in each of her last two contests, could improve with the return to two turn racing.  Swiss Skydiver is the best horse in this race, and if Swiss Skydiver runs her race, not having her as a single, let alone not making her my top selection, will leave me looking awfully foolish at the end of this contest.  But something tells me that Swiss Skydiver needs a race.

Harvest Moon could benefit greatly from the cutback in distance.  As Time Goes By is making a pretty big leap up the class ladder; but the Bob Baffert trained As Time Goes By looked phenomenal last time out in her first try at two turn racing, and a repeat of that performance could put As Time Goes By in the winner's circle today.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - [S] ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Turf

A's

# 5 Bench Judge (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Table for Ten (ML 7-2)
# 9 Caerulean (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Handsome Cat (ML 12-1)
# 3 Bang for Your Buck (ML 5-1)
# 4 First Prez (ML 20-1)
# 6 Luvluv (ML 8-1)
# 7 Beaudacious (ML 5-1)
# 8 Afternoon Heat (ML 20-1)
# 10 Mysterious Stones (ML 12-1)

Bench Judge has been running well against open (non-state bred restricted) company, finding his way into the Trifecta in each of his last four races.  I expect Bench Judge to do well today against state bred company.

Table for Ten fits well here on class, and Table for Ten could move up with the cutback in distance.  Caerulean took the Show at this class level over this turf course two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 5 with 2 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,8 with 2,3,5,7 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,5,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,7,10 with 5 with 2 with 5 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,4 with 2 with 5 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 5 with 5,7,8 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 5 with 2 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,10 $3.50

Total: $81.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:12 EST / 3:12 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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