3/6/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"There are no limits to what you can accomplish, except the limits you place on your own thinking." - Brian Tracy

It's Big 'Cap Day in Arcadia Saturday, with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap highlighting a card that is chock full of Graded Stakes.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - The San Carlos (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Loud Mouth (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 2 Extra Hope (ML 4-1)

# 6 Brickyard Ride (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Storm the Court (ML 5-1)
# 3 Major Cabbie (ML 8-1)
# 4 Manhattan Up (ML 20-1)
# 5 Strongconstitution (ML 20-1)
# 7 Exalted (ML 10-1)

# 9 Tigre Di Slugo (ML 5-2)

Loud Mouth, winner of three of his last four contests, looks well suited to today's seven furlong distance.  Extra Hope is probably better suited to two turns; but Extra Hope has run well in the past at today's distance.

Brickyard Ride, winner of the $150k California Cup Sprint last time out, could be quickest here, even with the class jump.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Frank E Kilroe Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Hit the Road (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Smooth Like Strait (ML 4-1)

# 6 Flavius (ML 6-1)

# 9 Ride a Comet (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Social Paranoia (ML 8-1)
# 4 Royal Ship (Brz) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Spirit Animal (ML 12-1)
# 7 Casa Creed (ML 6-1)

# 8 Count Again (ML 12-1)

# 10 Flying Scotsman (ML 12-1)

Hit the Road, winner of the Grade 3 Thunder Road last time out, has show an affinity for both this turf course and today's distance.  Smooth Like Strait, winner of the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile last time out, was very nearly relegated to being a backup "C" Selection in my play, due to his propensity for disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  However, I ultimately decided to place Smooth Like Strait on my main ticket because Smooth Like Strait can be counted on to be forwardly placed, and there really isn't that much early speed in this field.

Flavius could be the one running best late.  Ride a Comet seems to always find the winner's circle; but this may be Ride a Comet's toughest challenge to date.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Express Train (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Independence Hall (ML 4-1)

# 2 Maxfield (ML 8-5)

C's

# 3 Kiss Today Goodbye (ML 8-1)
# 4 Coastal Defense (ML 15-1)
# 6 Idol (ML 6-1)
# 7 Tizamagician (ML 12-1)
# 8 King Guillermo (ML 12-1)

Express Train, winner of the Grade 2 San Pasqual last time out, looks well suited to today's distance; and Express Train has shown that he can win from anywhere on the track.  Independence Hall could be speed on the rail; and Independence Hall may be the one that they'll have to catch to win.

To be honest, I'm not completely sold on Maxfield; and I certainly wouldn't bet Maxfield in the Win pool today.  But while Maxfield may not have defeated the quality of runners that he will be facing today, Maxfield has beaten every runner that he's gone up against; and therefore has to be respected.  So it's three deep for me in this leg, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Mr. Impossible (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Winhappy (ML 30-1)

# 3 Patron d'Oro (ML 7-2)

# 9 First Class Dad (ML 8-1)

# 10 Following Sea (ML 5-2)

# 11 Defunded (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Epidemic (ML 30-1)

# 5 Sal N Louie (ML 30-1)
# 6 Vantage Point (ML 12-1)

# 7 Cherubic Factor (ML 20-1)
# 8 Aurelian Man (ML 15-1)

# 12 Chaos Reigns (ML 12-1)

Mr. Impossible has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his two prior career starts.  Winhappy, Patron d'Oro, and Following Sea are three debut runners that have been training well for this contest.

First Class Dad should hold his form returning to the main track.  Defunded disappointed as the Post Time Favorite while taking the Show in his debut at Del Mar last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 2 with 5 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 1,2,6,9 with 1,2,5 with 1,3,4,9,10,11 $108.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,7,9 with 2 with 5 with 4 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,4,5,7,8,10 with 5 with 4 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 3,4,6,7,8 with 4 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 5 with 2,5,6,7,8,12 $3.00

Total: $120.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:52 EST / 3:52 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo