Saturday, March 27, 2021

3/27/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“Focus on the solution, not on the problem.” - Jim Rohn

Classic distances on the grass is the theme of Saturday's sequence in Arcadia, as a pair of ten furlong turf contests, including the Grade 3 Santa Ana, are to be found in Santa Anita's Late Pick Four.  I'll be taking a look at those races below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Captain Scotty (Morning Line 9-5)

B’s

# 6 Camby (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Capture the Sea (ML 12-1)
# 3 Outlaw(ML 12-1)
# 4 Engram (ML 30-1)
# 5 Self Taught (ML 5-1)
# 7 Satchel de Ritches (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 8 Octopus (ML 2-1)

Captain Scotty, trained by Peter Miller, took the Place last time out against more expensive stock while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Captain Scotty was actually claimed from that contest away from Miller by another barn, but that claim was voided after the race.  Needless to say, Captain Scotty, winner of the 2020 running of the Grade 2 Palos Verdes, is the best in this field, even if he's not necessarily at his best.

Camby tends to run well over this main track.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Salvator Mundi (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Mind the Gap (ML 5-2)
# 3 Award Winner (ML 9-2)
# 4 Gregdar (ML 2-1)
# 5 Heywoods Beach (ML 6-1)
# 6 Big Buzz (ML 12-1)

C's

None

So who do you eliminate in this field?  The longest shot on the Morning Line, Big Buzz, was a winner against first level Allowance company last time out over this turf course at today's distance.  Big Buzz also projects to be the one that they'll have to catch in order to win.  Everyone else in this group seems to belong at this class level.  So rather than strain my brain, I'm just going to go "ALL" in this leg, and move on.

RACE 8 - OC 50k/N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 I Got No Munny (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 4 Notre Dame (ML 5-1)
# 6 Holden the Lute (ML 7-2)
# 7 Defense Wins (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Midnight Mystery (ML 5-1)
# 3 Gate Speed (ML 10-1)
# 5 Prince Ali (ML 15-1)
# 8 Dark Prince (ML 6-1)

I don't know why, but for some reason the "Non-Winners of Two Races Lifetime" portion of the condition for these races always seems to get left out of the running lines of the Past Performances.  Anyway, runners that have visited the Winner's Circle more than once in their career are ineligible to run here.  Runners that have previously started for a claiming price of $50k or less can run tag free in this event.  For the record, the only entrant in this field that can be claimed is I Got No Munny.

I Got No Munny, trained by Mark Glatt, returns to the main track where he was victorious in his debut back in January.  I Got No Munny should also benefit from the class relief that he is getting here.

Notre Dame faces winners for the first time after graduating by as many as he wanted last time out.  Holden the Lute took the Place at this class level two starts back, which was the last time that Holden the Lute competed over a Fast dirt track.

Defense Wins seems to settle for too many minor awards; but perhaps the change in barn and getting Jockey Flavien Prat on his back will be enough to get Defense Wins back into the Winner's Circle Saturday.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Santa Ana (Grade 3) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Mucho Unusual (ML 8-5)

B's

# 3 Going to Vegas (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Silberpfeil (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 5 Red Lark (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 6 Neige Blanche (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Altea (Fr) (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 4 Tapwater (ML 4-1) and # 8 Colonial Creed (ML 12-1)

Mucho Unusual looks classiest here, and Mucho Unusual appears to be in top form.  Going to Vegas is trained by Richard Baltas, whose chargers have won the last three runnings of this event.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 1 with 1 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with ALL with 1,4,6,7 with 1,3 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 1 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2,3,5,8 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 1 with 2,5,6,7 $2.00

Total: $55.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:55 EDT / 3:55 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: