Sunday, June 14, 2015

6/14/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

"I believe our flag is more than just cloth and ink. It is a universally recognized symbol that stands for liberty, and freedom. It is the history of our nation, and it's marked by the blood of those who died defending it." - John Thune

Today marks the end of the current meet at Golden Gate Fields, and that means that there'll be a mandatory payout of the Golden Pick Six Jackpot, which is currently in excess of $117k.  So with that as incentive, let's take yet another run at The Great White Whale that is the Golden Pick Six. 

RACE 5 - Md $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Houdini Hill (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 1 Dench (ML 8-5)
# 2 Lucky Oracle (ML 9-2)
# 5 Heaveneleven (ML 5-1)


C's

None

Two starts back Houdini Hill took the Show against much more expensive over this main track at today's distance.  Houdini Hill was claimed for $20k out of his last race, a turf event where he had a rather rough go of it.  This will be Houdini Hill's first start off the claim for Trainer Steve Miyadi, who wins with approximately 19% of such.  

Dench and Heaveneleven took the Place and Show, respectively, in the same contest at this class level last time out.  Lucky Oracle is a filly taking on the boys; if she can duplicate her final time from her last race, she just may be the one getting her picture taken today.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Azia Brown (ML 5-2)
# 8 Elle Woods Too (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Seattls Cutie (ML 10-1)

C's

# 6 Summer Wine (ML 3-1)
# 12 Sister Hubert (ML 15-1)

# 1 Ain't She Pretty (No Line), # 7 Kitty's Karma (NL), and # 11 Ingenious (NL) are all program scratches.

Azia Brown missed graduating by just a neck in her only prior turf try, which was at today's distance at this class level.  Elle Woods Too has finished in the money in each of her prior turf tries.  Seattls Cutie is a first time starter sired by Downtown Seattle, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their debuts.

Summer Wine is a first time starter sired by Lucky Pulpit, whose debuting offspring win approximately 13% of their attempts.  Sister Hubert could be the one running best late if Azia Brown and Elle Woods Too duel each other into the ground before they reach the wire.

RACE 7 - Md $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Doc West (ML 2-1)
# 2 Onemoreatwilsons (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 Nae'ole (ML 12-1)
# 6 Duma Council (ML 7-2)
# 8 One Brite Day (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Mr River of Dreams (ML 30-1)
# 4 Copmanhurst (ML 30-1)
# 7 Kentucky King (ML 20-1)

I thought this race in the sequence had the greatest probability of devolving into chaos; for that reason, I'm using every entrant in the field on my tickets in one form or another.

Doc West returns to action after an extended vacation; Trainer Cliff Delima does very well with such (albeit in a rather small sample size).  Onemoreatwilsons is returning to competition after an even longer layoff than Doc West; but Onemoreatwilsons has been working well over this main track.

Nae'ole took the Show at this class level last time out.  Duma Council adds blinkers for his second career start.  One Brite Day drops in class, adds blinkers, and gets the services of Jockey Russell Baze.  The concern with One Brite Day is that he didn't show much in his only work over this main track, and this will be his first start on a synthetic surface.  

Copmanhurst is making his debut at the ripe old age of seven; and he's not a gelding.  The fact that Copmanhurst's connections have been determined enough to get him to the starting gate must count for something.  

Kentucky King showed good early speed two starts back and is now making his third start off the layoff.  Mr River of Dreams is on the ticket because every other entrant in this field is, and you should never use the "ALL but one" button.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Prospector's Trick (ML 4-1)

B's

# 12 Cajun Black (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 The Gray Hound (ML 8-1)
# 5 Rosary Man (ML 7-2)
# 10 Trifecta (ML 6-1)

# 13 Zorrito (ML 15-1) does not draw in from the Also Eligibles list and gets to hang out in the barn.

Prospector's Trick ships in from Santa Anita, where he's been finishing in the money five of his last six starts, all against open $25k claimers.  Prospector's Trick has a late running style that should suit him well in this field filled with early speed.  Cajun Black took the Place at this class level last time out.

The Gray Hound and Trifecta are a pair of late runners that could swoop in at the wire to get the big prize.  Rosary Man, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russell Baze, has been running well enough against Optional Claiming company that the move to a straight Allowance field should not be a problem; but Rosary Man looks like a need to lead type, and I'm not sure that he can get that early lead today.  

RACE 9 - Md $5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Latin's Watch (ML 7-2)

B's

# 8 Charlotte R (ML 5-2)

C's

# 5 Turko Gulch (ML 6-1)
# 9 St. Somewhere (ML 3-1)

# 6 Speeding Prospect (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Latin's Watch has the best last out and the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field, by a bunch.  Charlotte R, trying two turns for the first time, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.

Turko Gulch is a first time starter trained by Steve Sherman, who wins with approximately 16% of such.  St. Somewhere drops in class while adding blinkers.

RACE 10 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Yomybato (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 2 First Strike (ML 6-1)
# 5 Curly Boy (ML 10-1)
# 7 Bomb Site (ML 4-1)
# 9 Cant Do the Danse (ML 3-1)

Yomybato, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russell Baze, took the Show last time out over this turf course at today's distance against much more expensive.  Curly Boy won at this class level over this turf course at today's distance two starts back.

First Strike goes third off the layoff for Trainer Victor Trujillo.  Bomb Site has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Cant Do the Danse has finished in the money five of the seven times that he has competed on this turf course.  Cant Do the Danse could be the quickest in this field, and may have things all to himself in the early going.

OK, that's the analysis.  Since today's a mandatory payout, there's no reason to play for a single winning ticket; therefore we'll just go with our usual Crist method.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 1 with 3 with 8 $0.80

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,2,5,6 with 4,5,8 with 1,2,5,6,8 with 1,12 with 3,8 with 8 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 6 with 6,12 with 1,2 with 1 with 3 with 8 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 3,4,7 with 1 with 3 with 8 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 2,5,10 with 3 with 8 $2.40
$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 1 with 5,9 with 8 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2 with 1 with 3 with 2,5,7,9 $3.20

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:51 EDT / 2:51 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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