6/5/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Belmont Stakes Eve, and the good people at NYRA have put together a fine card, with five stakes on the ten race slate.  As for us, we're be following our established modus operandi and taking a run at today's Late Pick Four.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 1 Lookaroundcorners (Morning Line 3-1)
# 13 Tiz Time to Shake (ML 15-1)
# 14 Amigo (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Private Relations (ML 8-1)
# 8 The Catmancan (ML 12-1)

C's

None

# 11 Seeking Alpha (ML 7-2) and # 12 Reverend Green (ML 10-1) are Vet scratches; so they come out too late to allow # 15 Bubba's d'Oro (ML 50-1) to draw in from the Also Eligibles List.  # 16 Rare Eagle (ML 5-2), entered for the main track only, also gets to stay in the barn this afternoon.

Lookaroundcorners crossed the wire first in his debut last time out on the Keeneland grass, but was disqualified for knocking several of his opponents out of his way.  No reason why Lookaroundcorners can't cross the wire first again today, but without the rough house tactics.

Tiz Time to Shake took the Place in his first try on the grass last time out.  Amigo has already had a dozen unsuccessful tries at graduating; certainly not a good sign.  But only three of those twelve were turf routes, and in those three he took the Place twice.

Private Relations took the Place at this class level three starts back.  The Catmancan took the Show at this class level last time out; though he may need more distance than just eight furlongs.

RACE 8 - The True North (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Dads Caps (ML 4-1)
# 8 Rock Fall (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Stallwalkin' Dude (ML 5-1)
# 6 Eastwood (ML 10-1)

C's

None

# 3 Captain Serious (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Dads Cap took the Grade 1 Carter Handicap last time out, the second year in a row that he's won that event.  Rock Fall, trained by Todd Pletcher, has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Stallwalkin' Dude has won five of his last six contests.  Eastwood is the "other" Pletcher in this field, and misses by less than a length of being undefeated with Jockey Johnny Velazquez on his back.

RACE 9 - (F) The New York (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 1 Kitten's Queen / # 1A Stephanie's Kitten (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 7 Riposte (GB) (ML 6-1)

Stephanie's Kitten is the clear class of this field, and her win last time out in the Grade 3 Hillsborough suggests that she's in fine form.  Riposte (GB) won this event last year; an angle to which I tend to be partial.  Riposte should also benefit from this turn back in distance from her last time out.

RACE 10 - The Belmont Gold Cup $250k - Sixteen Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 3 Unitarian (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Innovation Economy (ML 5-1)
# 5 Red Rifle (ML 7-2)
# 6 Artic North (ML 15-1)
# 8 Morning Calm (ML 10-1)

C's

None

# 7 Diplomat (ML 20-1) is a Vet scratch.

Unitarian won the $75k Allen Jerkens at today's distance two starts back.  Innovation Economy, a clear winner of an N2X Allowance last time out at twelve furlongs, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.

Red Rifle, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Johnny Velazquez, has finished in the Exacta four of the five times that he's tried the grass.  Artic North took the Place behind Unitarian in the Allen Jerkens; perhaps he makes up those three and a half lengths today.  Morning Calm, ridden by Mike Smith, looks like a solid candidate to be running well late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,13,14 with 5,8 with 1 with 3 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,8,13,14 with 2,5,6,8 with 1 with 2,3,5,6,8 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,13,14 with 5,8 with 7 with 3 $3.00

Total: $59.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo