6/6/15 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Preview

This is it; the big day where American Pharoah makes history, either by winning The Triple Crown or by joining the long list of horses who won The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness only to come up short in The Belmont Stakes.  NYRA has put together an excellent card for the occasion, with enough Graded Stakes to rival a Breeders' Cup Day.  There are three Pick Fours on the menu at Belmont Park today; we'll be taking our shot at the one in the middle, The All-Grade 1 Pick Four.

RACE 8 - (F) The Just A Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 8 Ball Dancing (Morning Line 3-1)
# 9 Tepin (ML 6-1)

B's

# 4 Coffee Clique (ML 7-2)
# 6 Filimbi (ML 6-1)

C’s

None

Ball Dancing, winner of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last time out, has yet to finish out of the Exacta since coming to North America and joining the Chad Brown barn.  Tepin made a big move forward last time out in winning the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile, and should build on that success in her third start of 2015.

Coffee Clique has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last two races; but the fact that she won last year's running of this event gives her a spot on our ticket.  Filimbi, second behind Ball Dancing in the Jenny Wiley, could turn the tables today with the turn back in distance.

RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Tonalist (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Private Zone (ML 4-1)

# 5 Tamarkuz (ML 10-1)

# 9 Honor Code (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 7 Bayern (ML 7-2)

Tonalist is on his home court, where he is a perfect four-for-four lifetime.  Tonalist has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and should get a nice setup sitting off the pace.  Private Zone draws the rail, and he could be the speed of the speed in this contest.

Tamakuz, winner of the Group 2 Godolphin Mile last time out, misses by less than a length of being a perfect five-for-five on real dirt tracks.  Honor Code finished out of the money in the Grade 2 Alysheba last time out, but Honor Code should get a much hotter pace to close into today than he got in the Alysheba, which saw the opening half run in 48.56.

It seems pretty clear that Bayern needs the lead to win; and with Private Zone drawn to his inside, and without a stablemate to impede the other front runners for him out of the gate, I don't see Bayern getting that early lead today.  But Bayern has managed to win Graded Stakes in the past where the odds were against him, and maybe he can be a part of what could be a really big day for Trainer Bob Baffert; so on the ticket he goes.

RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf Course

A’s

# 2 Twilight Eclipse (ML 7-2)

# 3 Finnegans Wake (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 4 War Dancer (ML 5-1)

# 9 Magic Artist (Ire) (ML 12-1)

Twilight Eclipse hasn't exactly thrived since losing Main Sequence as a rival; but Twilight Eclipse did win the Grade 1 Man o' War last time out over this turf course, crossing the wire a neck in front of War Dancer.  Main Sequence draws inside of War Dancer today, which should give him an added edge.  It also remains to be seen if War Dancer can put together back-to-back solid efforts.

Finnegans Wake, winner of four of his last five starts (all Grade 1 or Grade 2 contests) looks to be in top form; but there may not be enough early speed here for Finnegans Wake to get his preferred setup.  Magic Artist (Ire) is on the ticket because the final time of 1:59.2 his last time out in a Group 1 event in Italy (which he lost by a neck) is too good to totally ignore.

RACE 11 - The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 American Pharoah (ML 3-5)

# 8 Materiality (ML 6-1)

B's

# 6 Frosted (ML 5-1)

C’s

None

American Pharoah is facing seven opponents in this contest, and he's beaten all seven at one time or another.  But like with so many Derby and Preakness winners from Spectacular Bid to California Chrome, it's not enough to be the best in the field; he has to be at his absolute best today in order to win the Triple Crown.

Materiality was my Kentucky Derby pick, and the trip he got last month just left me wondering what might have been.  Perhaps today we'll find out.  Frosted is the only other runner in this field besides American Pharoah and Materiality to have at least one triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure on his resume.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 8,9 with 4 with 2,3 with 5,8 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,8,9 with 1,4,5,9 with 2,3 with 5,6,8 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 5,8 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 8,9 with 4 with 4,9 with 5,8 $4.00

Total: $60.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo