Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there on this, the first day of Summer. Hopefully today finds all of you enjoying yourselves doing that which you enjoy. As for me, by the grace of The Almighty I'll be spending my time today doing that which I enjoy, which is taking a run at the Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $10k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 When We Met (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 6 My Jealous (ML 3-1)
# 7 Bluegrass Reward (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
When We Met won at this level at today's distance two starts back. When We Met was claimed out of that race, but the claim was voided. Last time out When We Met won again at today's distance, this time against more expensive. It's fair to say that When We Met fits at this class level.
The last time My Jealous competed around two turns on a fast dirt track he took the Place in a listed stakes. My Jealous was victorious in his two starts prior to that one, both of which were also around two turns on a fast dirt track. It's reasonable to expect My Jealous to improve over his performance over his most recent two starts, neither of which were around two turns on a fast dirt track.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Sweet (ML 5-2)
# 4 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Emyvale Court (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 Artisticdifference (ML 5-1)
# 7 Pandura (ML 20-1)
Sweet took the Place last time out at this class level over this turf course at today's distance. Foolish Ways (Ire) took the Show in each of her last two turf routes, both at this class level. Emyvale Court, trained by Tom Proctor and ridden by Gary Stevens, took the Place in three of her four prior turf starts, all at this class level. This will be Emyvale Court's first try on the flat turf course; her Tomlinson Rating for the distance suggests that she should handle it well.
Artisticdifference is a first time starter trained by Bob Hess Jr., who wins with over a quarter of such. Pandura tries grass for the first time; his trainer, Dan Blacker, wins with thirty percent of such.
RACE 8 - (F) The Landaluce $125k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Miss Gridley (ML 5-2)
# 5 Alien Giant (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Star of Munster (ML 8-1)
# 7 Sambamzajammin (ML 3-1)
Miss Gridley and Alien Giants are the only to runners in this field to have graduated against open, rather than state-restricted, company. Star of Munster, trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by Mike Smith, has the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for today's distance. Sambamzajammin has the second best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field, behind only Miss Gridley.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Rosicky (ML 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Bellamy Concerto (ML 8-1)
# 5 Nob Hill (ML 8-1)
# 8 Volume (ML 4-1)
# 3 Feynman (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Rosicky looks to be as much of a standout as a winless horse can be. Rosicky has taken the Place at this class level in each of his three prior career starts. The Beyer Speed Figure that Rosicky earned last time out over this main track is at least nine points better than the career best Beyer Speed Figure of any other entrant in this field.
So why the spread? Well, maybe Rosicky is camera shy; after all, he had the lead in the stretch last time out, only to get caught; so caution is advised.
Bellamy Concerto has twice hit the board at this class level, and could improve with the stretch out to two turns. Nob Hill, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Victor Espinoza, has finished in the money in two of his last three races on this main track. Volume has finished in the money in each of his last two races.
Worth noting: none of the ten entrants in this field (including the scratched Feynman) was ever the Post Time Favorite in any of their prior starts. This includes several races where they had just missed graduating in their prior contest. For example, Bellamy Concerto missed by a nose on February 22, but was still 5-2 in his next start. Nob Hill missed by half a length on February 28, and left the gate at 9-1 in his next start. Rosicky lost by just a neck in his debut, but was 5-2 at Post Time in his next start. Volume missed by half a length on April 17, but was 7-1 when the bell rang in his next start. I'm not sure what all that means, but it sure is interesting; all the more so because the public was right each time, as all these runners are still maidens (at least, for now).
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3,4,9 with 2,5 with 7 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 3,4,6,7,9 with 1,2,5,7 with 7 $20.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3,4,9 with 2,5 with 4,5,8 $9.00
Total: $35.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment