We've come to the final weekend of the 2017 California State Fair circuit, the last two days of thoroughbred racing on a real dirt track in Northern California until 2018. So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take another run at The Gold Rush Pick Six at The Big Fresno Fair.
RACE 4 - (F) Clm $4k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Winter's Nest (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Hallie Jae (ML 9-5)
# 3 Contessa B. (ML 7-2)
# 4 Bench Ruling (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 1 Blooming Hannah (ML 9-2)
This contest is restricted to fillies and mares which have either:
1) Not won a race since August 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a distaff runner has fewer than four career Wins, she's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of July (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $3.5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 1 Blooming Hannah (ML 9-2) and # 5 Winter's Nest (ML 2-1) are the two runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Winter's Nest was victorious at this approximate class level last time out (higher price tag, but N2X) in front of a next out winner. Hallie Jae, who has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last two races, is on the ticket because everyone else is. Contessa B. defeated Winter's Nest at Sacramento back in July. Bench Ruling has won two of her three career races over this track.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $5k - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Sharemyway (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Frankie (ML 7-5)
C's
# 2 Gunny (ML 7-2)
# 4 Papa Said Ya (ML 10-1)
Sharemyway missed graduation by just a neck last time out at this class level. Frankie took the Place at this class level two starts back. Frankie has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two career starts on a Fast dirt track.
Gunny will be attempting to prove that the twenty-ninth's time is the charm. She may very well be the most talented runner in this field; but Gunny has demonstrated a refusal on multiple occasions to be the first to cross under the wire. Papa Said Ya is a first time starter in a field where the experienced runners aren't all that impressive.
RACE 6 - Clm $3.2k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Gummy (ML 9-5)
# 4 Whatahandsomecat (ML 2-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 The Gotham Year (ML 6-1)
# 5 Little Mustard (ML 3-1)
Gummy ships in from downstate and goes first time for the barn of Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such. Whatahandsomecat took the Place just six days ago in his first career try over a Fast dirt track.
The Gotham Year could be the one running best late. Little Mustard fits well here on class, though real dirt is not Little Mustard's preferred surface.
RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Weyand (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Prince Charmant (ML 5-2)
C's
# 5 Bargaining (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 3 Bunker Buster (ML 8-1)
Weyand has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts. Prince Charmant could be the one running best late. Bargaining could be quick enough to contend even with the class rise.
RACE 8 - Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Freddies Dream (ML 5-1)
# 7 King Budrick (ML 4-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Canada (ML 8-1)
# 3 Drouillard (ML 3-1)
# 5 Carville (ML 9-5)
Freddies Dream ships in from downstate after taking the Show last time out for this claiming price. King Budrick could improve with the return from downstate and with the blinkers being put back on.
Canada has been showing steady improvement in each of his last three dirt starts. Drouillard defeated more expensive last time out, but that was on the turf at Golden Gate. Carville goes first off the claim for Trainer John Martin, who tends to do well with such.
RACE 9 - Clm $2.5k - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Zoe's Cajun (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 5 Wise Tale (ML 8-5)
C's
# 1 Secret Lass (ML 12-1)
# 4 Eddie Could Go (ML 3-1)
Zoe's Cajun took the Show behind two next out winners last time out. Wise Tale was victorious the last time Jockey Catalino Martinez was on his back. Secret Lass could be speed on the rail. Eddie Could Go took the Show at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, I won't be putting all my selections on one ticket. While I still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of my life, budgetary constraints must be respected. I also think it's safe to presume that my "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket; so I should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 5 with 5 with 2,4 with 2 with 4,7 with 6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: ALL with 1,5 with 2,4 with 1,2 with 4,7 with 5,6 $25.60
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 5 with 2,4 with 2,4 with 2 with 4,7 with 6 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 5 with 5 with 1,5 with 2 with 4,7 with 6 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 5 with 5 with 2,4 with 5 with 4,7 with 6 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 5 with 5 with 2,4 with 2 with 2,3,5 with 6 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 5 with 5 with 2,4 with 2 with 4,7 with 1,4 $1.60
Total: $35.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:15 EDT / 2:15 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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