Saturday, July 11, 2015

7/11/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

They're running the Grade 2 Great Lady M Saturday.  It's the featured eighth race at Los Alamitos, and it's part of the Late Pick Four which we will be chasing.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Tough Annie (Morning Line 10-1)
# 6 Haaay Sexy Lady (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 5 Easter Lillian (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Smooth Talker (ML 5-2)

Tough Annie's last four outings have been over this track at night in Quarter Horse competition.  But if you look at those as elaborate in-company workouts, then her form fits well here, especially since her last race that involved making a turn saw her earning a Beyer Speed Figure that ties for the best last time out with the one earned by Haaay Sexy Lady.  At the very least, Tough Annie should be heard from early.

Haaay Sexy Lady comes back just a week after getting her second career win by nearly five lengths.  Haaay Sexy Lady will be going first off the claim for Trainer Steve Miyadi, who wins with about a fifth of such.  

Easter Lillian ran out of gas last time out against more expensive.  Easter Lillian will be running on Lasix for the first time today, in this her sixth career start.  Smooth Talker has been earning Beyers that fit with this class level, but she'll need the early speed to back up in order to have a chance.

RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Watdifrenzdzitmake (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 3 Zuzu's Petals (ML 5-2)
# 4 Asparagus (ML 6-1) 
# 5 True History (ML 3-1)
# 6 My Sweet Afleet (ML 6-1)

C's

# 7 Ivana Beat Yabad (ML 4-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least not until they finally fix that flaw).

Watdifrenzdzitmake draws the furthest outside post; and while that 's not an ideal place to be on this course when going exactly a mile, it could allow for Watdifrezdzitmake to sit just off the early speed and make a nice stretch run.

Zuzu's Petals has shown an annoying willingness to settle for minor awards; indeed, Zuzu's Petals is winless in her nine starts following her debut, despite having been the Post Time in four of those contests.  Perhaps going two turns for the first time will change her attitude towards leading the pack.

True History and My Sweet Afleet fit well on class; if they can carry their form from the turf onto the dirt then they should do well today.  Likewise Asparagus, who is trying real dirt for the first time. 

Ivana Beat Yabad has good early speed, but may be hampered by the outside draw; as the last time that Ivana Beat Yabad drew outside either the # 1 or # 2 Post Position was also the last time that she finished outside the Superfecta.

RACE 8 - (F) The Great Lady M. (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Fantastic Style (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Clearly Confused (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Sunday Rules (ML 5-2)
# 7 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)

# 3 Ramona's Wildcat (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Fantastic Style took a big step forward in the Angels Flight Stakes last time out, and looks to be the quickest in this field.  There should be enough early speed here to allow Clearly Confused to make a good late run at the leaders.

Sunday Rules is undefeated, but this will be her toughest class test to date.  Sunday Rules doesn't look to be as quick as Fantastic Style; but if Fantastic Style should falter early, then Sunday Rules may get loose on the lead.

Warren's Veneda is the class of this field on paper, but this is clearly not enough distance for her to do her best running.  Still, Warren's Vaneda may not need to do her best running to win here.

RACE 9 - Clm $8k N2X - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Not Enough Eddie (ML 5-2)
# 5 Rock Steady Eddie (ML 10-1)
# 6 Land of the Free (ML 7-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 7 Pax Tecum (ML 3-1)
# 9 No Bachi (ML 15-1)

Not Enough Eddie and Rock Steady Eddie share the honor of having the best last out Beyer, with each having earned their respective number while facing tougher competition than they will today.  Land of the Free has shown good early speed in each of his last two contests; perhaps a sign of good things to come from an entrant that typically does his best running late.

Pax Tecum and No Bachi both finished in the money at this class level last time out, with Pax Tecum getting to the wire first but having his number taken down for interfering with No Bachi.  Perhaps if these two can keep out of each other's way, either or both may move forward today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 8 with 6 with 4,5,6 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 3,4,5,6,8 with 2,6 with 4,5,6 $45.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 6 with 4,5,6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 7 with 6 with 4,5,6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 8 with 5,7 with 4,5,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 8 with 6 with 7,9 $2.00

Total: $63.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:43 EDT / 4:43 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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