RACE 1 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dynamite Ride (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Tiz Jolie (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Papa Kade (ML 4-1)
# 4 Afleet in Time (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Dynamite Ride took the Place last time out at this distance against more expensive stock. Tiz Jolie was in that same contest as Dynamite Ride and didn't have enough at the end. But the fractions may not be as quick today, which would give Tiz Jolie a better shot at victory. Papa Kade switches from an apprentice to a Hall of Fame rider, and gets some significant class relief. Will that be enough to get Papa Kade to the Winner's Circle? Probably not; but it might.
RACE 2 - Clm $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 I Don't Care Who (ML 3-1)
# 6 Knock Em Flat (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Macho Sox (ML 7-2)
C's
None
I Don't Care Who won at this level two starts back, crossing the wire four and a half lengths in front of Knock Em Flat, who took the Show. I think Knock Em Flat is going to have a much easier go of it on the front end today, which should give Knock Em Flat an at least equal chance of turning the tables on I Don't Care Who. Also take note these two horses each run for different trainers than they did in that contest back in May.
Macho Sox is moving up in class; not just to a higher claiming price, but also from conditioned to open claimers. Still, Macho Sox does have the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and is going first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with over twenty percent of such.
RACE 3 - MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Dare to Believe (ML 12-1)
# 5 Kelly With a Twist (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Toews On Ice (ML 2-1)
# 2 Uncle Lino (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bedeviled (ML 12-1)
C's
# 3 Bistraya (ML 20-1)
# 6 Ring Collector (ML 4-1)
# 7 Rockin Bayou (ML 5-2)
This contest is for two year olds, and this is the initial start for all eight entrants; the type of race that makes you want to just punch the "ALL" button and get on with your life.
Dare to Believe was sired by More Than Ready, whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debut attempts. Kelly With a Twist is trained by Doug O'Neill, who wins approximately 15% of the time with first time starters. I also like the gate work Kelly With a Twist had just three days ago.
Toews On Ice is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, which is why Toews On Ice is the Morning Line Favorite. But Toews On Ice's sire Archarcharch has yet to establish himself as a producer of precocious runners, and Towes On Ice's works have been spaced further apart than I like to see in a first time starter.
Uncle Lino is sired by Uncle Mo, who has seen 25% winners from his debut progeny in a very small sample. Bedeviled is sired by Luckin At Lucky, whose offspring win approximately 19% of their first time tries. The C's are the rest of the field.
RACE 4 - The Eddie Read (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Finnegans Wake (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Midnight Storm (ML 8-5)
# 4 Power Ped (ML 8-1)
Finnegans Wake is the clear class of this field, and if he runs anywhere near as well as he did in the Grade 1 Turf Classic (his most recent turf contest at today's distance) then he will get his picture taken again today. Midnight Storm might steal it on the front end, especially if # 5 Big Casanova (Arg) (ML 12-1) fails to go with him early. Power Ped probably isn't at this class level yet; but Power Ped's effort last time out in the Grade 2 San Marcos makes him worthy of respect.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Quality Chimes (ML 2-1)
B's
# 4 Kenny's Girl (ML 5-1)
# 8 Not Tonight (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Sailor's Cry (ML 4-1)
The last time Quality Chimes participated in a dirt sprint, she took the Place against more expensive. Kenny's Girl missed by less than a length at this class level two starts back. Not Tonight could be the quickest out the gate in this field. Sailor's Cry could wake up with the drop in the class.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 2 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 2,3 with 1,3,6 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 7 with 2,4,8 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 6 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 3,6,7 with 7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 3,4 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 3,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 6 $2.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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