Happy 4th of July to all, both in and outside of the United States. A huge day of racing today, most notably in New York, where Belmont Park has put together another monster card for its Stars and Stripes Day. As for us, we'll be focusing our attention on the opposite coast, where The Los Alamitos Derby is the featured race, and part of the Los Al Late Pick Four that we'll be chasing.
RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Xingontothebone (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
None
# 1 El Lucero (No Line) and # 7 Speedin With Eddie (NL) are program scratches.
Xingontothebone took the Show in the $125k Santa Anita Juvenile last time out. Prior to that, Xingontothebone took the Show against open non-claiming maidens, and in the race before that he took the Show against state-bred non-claiming maidens (incidentally, that race was won by Found Money, who also won the Santa Anita Juvenile). If Xingontothebone runs back to any of those three races today, then he should win by daylight. I personally think that Morning Line is very optimistic; I will be very much surprised if Xingontothebone leaves the gate at odds higher than 7-5.
RACE 7 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mucho Blessings (ML 5-2)
# 8 Class Divine (ML 7-2)
# 9 Goose Bumps (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Warren's Tea Party (ML 15-1)
# 11 Stormys' Blazer (ML 30-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligibles List. Perhaps she'll run tomorrow.
Mucho Blessings finished right smack in the middle of a nine horse field in her only prior try on a real dirt track. But Mucho Blessings is getting some class relief to offset the change in surface, and she seems well suited to today's distance.
Class Divine took the Place against more expensive the last time that she competed on dirt. Goose Bumps flashed some early quickness last time out before throwing in the towel against more expensive. Expect Goose Bumps to be even quicker today with the addition of blinkers.
Warren's Tea Party was last throughout in her debut last time out; but that was charging down the hill against non-claiming state bred maidens. As far as I'm concerned that race was just a stamina building workout. I don't know if Warren's Tea Party will improve with the switch to dirt; but I do know that if she does, she stands an excellent chance of lighting up the tote board like a Christmas tree.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Kentuckian (ML 6-5)
B's
# 2 Gimme Da Lute (ML 5-2)
# 5 Prospect Park (ML 8-5)
Kentuckian, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Mike Smith, made a big move forward last time out, winning the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera after having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in the San Pedro in his prior race. If Kentuckian can repeat his last out effort then he should win today; but this will be Kentuckian's first try around two turns; and while his breeding suggests that he should handle it, you always want to be cautious about accepting short odds on a young horse doing something for the first time.
Gimme Da Lute and Prospect Park finished one-two last time out in the Grade 3 Affirmed, separated by less than a length at the wire. If Kentuckian should falter, then it seems likely that one of these two will be the one to get their picture taken today.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Haaay Sexy Lady (ML 7-2)
# 3 Yawannagokid (ML 3-1)
# 4 Aguacita (ML 4-1)
# 8 Lady Now (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Rock N Bunny (ML 8-1)
# 5 She's a Hugger (ML 20-1)
# 6 Lady Dash (ML 12-1)
# 7 Classic Journey (ML 20-1)
# 9 Beyond Lucky (ML 6-1)
Haaay Sexy Lady last time out and Yawannagokid two starts back each earned Beyer Speed Figures against more expensive stock that should get the job done today. Aguacita, who is taking a huge drop in class, has shown the ability to be up near the lead against more expensive; it would not surprise to see her wire the field today.
Lady Now may finally be over whatever was ailing her earlier this year, as she earned a Beyer Speed Figure last time out that's more in line with those that she was earning last Summer.
The backups are all the other entrants in this contest. This one looks like it could be pure chaos, especially when you consider that She's a Hugger is the only runner here to have finished in the money last time out, and she did so by beating $3.5k maidens.
OK, that's the analysis. Per usual, we'll be playing our tickets in Crist fashion, but with a bit of a wrinkle: we're going to hit the "ALL" button for the finale on our "A's with One C" ticket. So with that, we get this:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3,8,9 with 4 with 1,3,4,8 $12.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3,8,9 with 2,4,5 with ALL $40.50
A's with One C with "ALL" in the finale
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 4 with ALL $4.50
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:43 EDT / 4:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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