7/29/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Remember that sizable Pick Six carryover going into Sunday's card at Del Mar?  Well, no one hit it; so now it's even more sizable, currently topping the half-million mark.  And while we don't swim in that pool, heavy interest in the Pick Six often spills over into the Pick Four pool, as bettors knocked out early in the Pick Six try to get even, while those still alive often use the Pick Four to hedge.  So considering all that, let's have ourselves a little mid-week fun and take a shot at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Feelin Lucky (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 3 Land Over Sea (ML 2-1)
# 8 Red Stitch (ML 10-1)

C's

# 4 Asian Moonlady (ML 10-1)

# 7 Warm Endowment (ML 5-2) has been scratched.

This one's for two year old fillies where half the field is making their career debuts, while the experienced runners have all competed on the main track only.  It's the type of race where you can almost hear the "ALL" button calling your name.  But we may need to go deep elsewhere, so let's try to survive the initial contest without resorting to panic.

Feelin Lucky is by Lookin At Lucky, whose offspring win about 12% of their turf debuts.  I'm also intrigued by the workout pattern Feelin Lucky went through during the Spring: April 28 / May 2 / May 5 / May 9.  You rarely see workouts placed that close together anymore.  So maybe the old school training regimen will have Feelin Lucky ready to fire at first asking.

Land Over Sea was quick out the gate in her debut; if she can do that on the grass, maybe she runs these off their feet before they have a chance to get started.  Red Stitch is by Decarchy, whose offspring tend to do well the first time that they try the grass.  Asian Moonlady is out of Silver Moonshine, who had two career turf wins.

RACE 6 - [S] (F) OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Awesome Luck (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Bonus Spin (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Tough Annie (ML 20-1)

# 8 Anita Marie (ML 5-1)

# 1 Lucky Student (ML 3-1) has been scratched.

Bonus Spin and Awesome Luck have the co-best Beyer Speed Figures in this field; preference given to Awesome Luck due to this being Bonus Spin's first start of 2015.  Tough Annie could be speed on the rail; and while speed on the rail ran into a dry spell during this meet, it did win it's fair share of contests on Sunday.  Anita Marie, like Bonus Spin, is making her first start of 2015.  If Anita Marie brings her form from early 2014 with her, then she could be the one getting her picture taken today.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Sound City (ML 5-1)

# 9 Showcase Winner (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 3 Kyankes (ML 5-1)

# 5 Lookin for Money (ML 9-2)

# 7 Housemaker (GB) (ML 6-1)

# 8 Belle Et Bete (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 10 Backstreet Lisa (ML 4-1)

C's

None

# 11 Take Back Spring (No Line), # 12 Summer Veil (NL), and # 14 Pray Anyway (NL) are all program scratches.  # 1 Yes Yes Baroness (ML 8-1) and # 13 Won't Be Shaken (ML 10-1) have also been scratched.

Sound City missed by a head against more expensive at today's distance on the grass last time out.  Showcase Winner seems to be much improved since adding the blinkers.

Lookin for Money drops in for the lowest tag of her career.  Housemaker (GB), coming back on less than two weeks rest, closed well while breaking her maiden two starts back.  Belle Et Bete (Ire) took the Place while charging down the Santa Anita hill against more expensive two starts back.

Backstreet Lisa battled Sound City on the front end last time out; perhaps Backstreet Lisa will be able to turn the tables today.  Kyankes tries the grass for the first time; Kyankes' trainer, Richard Baltas, wins with over twenty percent of such.

RACE 8 - Clm $16k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Shakahari (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 9 No Ez Money (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 George's Main Man (ML 6-1)

# 3 Destino (ML 20-1)

# 8 Mighty Brown (ML 6-1)

# 10 Jimmy's Date (ML 3-1)

Shakahari enters this contest with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and should be speed on the what we hope won't be dead rail.  No Ez Money earned a Beyer the last time he competed on a fast dirt track that would be a career best for all but one other runners in this contest.

George's Main Man should have a good stalking position on Shakahari.  Destino is the one to look for late if it all falls apart up front.  Mighty Brown ships in to run for the lowest price tag of his career.  Jimmy Date's goes back to the barn of Trainer Peter Miller, for whom Jimmy's Date has enjoyed past success.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 5 with 2,9 with 1 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 3,5 with 2,3,5,7,8,9,10 with 1,9 $42.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 2,9 with 1 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,8 with 2,9 with 1 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 2,9 with 2,3,8,10 $4.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo